• One more week. The Masters is right around the corner and the excitement for the first major of the year is palpable. However, while most are gearing up for Augusta next week, this week brings the Valero Texas Open. But first, a quick recap of last week.

    Sam Burns was able to mow through his competitors enroute to his 5th career PGA tour victory at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. Burns put on a putting clinic throughout the week, gaining nearly 7 strokes on the field heading into the final day. The final day saw some excellent matchups as Sam Burns first took down world number one Scottie Scheffler in extra holes in what was a seesaw battle that saw Burns go 3 up through the first 3 holes of the match. However, Scheffler regained the lead before the 10th tee had been reached and found himself 2 up over Burns with 6 holes to go. Burns was able to win 3 of the next 5 and head to 18 up by one, but Scheffler answered and sent it to a sudden death playoff. From there, Burns was finally able to slam the door shut on the 21st hole of play. Meanwhile in the other matchup, Cam Young battled Rory McIlroy as Young made his own comeback being down 2 with 3 holes to play, eventually advancing in a playoff on the 19th hole. The final matchup was not as entertaining as Burns cruised to victory, losing only one hole to Young and finished him off after only 13 holes (6&5).

    This week brings us to the aforementioned Valero Texas Open played at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. There is one week left to punch a ticket to the Masters next week for those who have not already done so, and it requires victory at this event. We saw JJ Spaun do that last year at this event, as well as Corey Conners back in 2019 (after he Monday qualified to get into the tournament). Most of the field this week will be using the motivation for the opportunity to play at the iconic Augusta course next week as fuel.

     

    The Course

    The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has been host of this event since 2011. The course is a Greg Norman design that plays over 7,400 yards and is a par-72. While the length of the course seems intimidating, there is a lot of hidden distance due to two of the par-5s playing over 600 yards and one of the par-3 holes that is measured at over 240 yards. In fact, there are only 4 par-4 holes that are more than 450 yards in length (which play as 3 of the toughest 4 holes on the course) and there are 5 par-4s that play less than 415 yards. All of this is to say don’t be seduced into picking only bombers off the tee because of the total distance of this course. It is a course that requires accuracy off the tee with strong approach play.

    With hardly any rough to speak of, the course depends on the treelines and wind as the main defense against scoring opportunities for the players. Texas winds can be fierce and really impact the difficulty of the course. The Bermuda greens are slower than the average tour stop

     

    The Field

    144 players will battle for the title this week in which 134 are not currently qualified for the Masters. Tyrrell Hatton and Hideki Matsuyama are the most decorated players in the field. The big storyline of the week is Rickie Fowler, who needs to win to punch his ticket for next week. Other notables in the field include last year’s champion JJ Spaun, as well as Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar and Chris Kirk. Up and coming young guns Taylor Montgomery, Davis Riley and Thomas Detry are also teeing it up.

     

    Key Stats

    Approach will still be the most weighted stat this week, but not quite as heavily as other weeks. Hitting fairways, a strong short game, and the ability to avoid bogeys will also be crucial to success this week.

    Here are the key stats I am considering when building my lineups this week.

    1. SG: Approach– A staple stat that translates to any course. It is the stat that has been proven to be heavily correlated with long-term success and past winners of this event. With fast, firm and probably windy conditions, golfers’ second shots this week will need to be dialed in to contend.
    2. ARG/Scrambling– Texas winds could result in some missed greens as well as some lengthy approach shots. We want to target golfers who can get up and down to save par and half the hole or even win it.
    3. Bogey Avoidance– This course tends to play pretty difficult, especially when the winds kick up. I except the winning score to be in the 12 to 15 under par range, so golfers who don’t give strokes away will be prioritized.
    4. Proximity 150-175 Yards- As with most instances when proximity stats are key, this is the most common range of second shots on this course. I would suggest mixing in long-term and short-term results from this range when selecting your player pool.
    5. Fairways Gained- While the rough isn’t necessarily something to worry about this week, there is still plenty of danger for those that miss the fairway. Large oak trees and sand traps await those with wayward tee shots ready to leave golfers in a difficult position to salvage par.

    Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts as the week goes on and I’d be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

     

    Round 1 Props

    Thrive Contest Plays for Thursday’s Round 1 Action

    *Unfortunately Thrive is taking another week off, but is beginning to list prop plays for the Masters next week. I will post some early plays I like in Discord.

    Props Record YTD

    23-10

    DFS Top Tier Play

    Si Woo Kim

    Salary: $9,700

    Given the uncertainty with Hideki (who withdrew from the match play event last week with a neck issue) and Hatton (who hurt his hand during a pre-round warmup last week and did not look good at all afterwards), I expect Si Woo to be the popular play to start lineups this week. The ownership will be something to monitor as the week goes on and if it gets too out of hand, we will look to pivot in GPPs. Si Woo has an excellent track record at this event, having made 5 of 6 cuts including three straight top-25 finishes (4 overall). He just does everything really well in the statistical categories we are prioritizing this week. He has also been a lot more consistent as of late and is one of the best tee-to-green players in this field.

    Others Considered: Chris Kirk ($9,300), Tyrrell Hatton ($10,900)

    DFS Mid Tier Play

    Matt Wallace

    Salary: $8,500

    Wallace comes in hot with a victory at the alternate PGA event last week in the Dominican Republic. He is an excellent around-the-green player and tends to play his best golf on harder tracks. He is also one of the streakier players on tour who can ride the momentum when he is playing well and is coming off a 7th at Valspar and the previously mentioned win last week. Wallace seems to have found something with his irons, which can be his downfall when it’s going bad. I don’t expect anyone in the $8K range to get too much ownership so I would feel comfortable firing him up in GPPs and cash games.

    Others Considered: Davis Thompson ($8,100), Brendon Todd ($7,900)

     

    DFS Value Play

    Ben Martin

    Salary: $7,100

    Another guy coming in hot this week is Ben Martin. These are the types of events to play Martin as he continues to produce result after result without getting a price increase. His 8th-place finish down in the Dominican last week was his third top-13 finish in his last five events played. Martin is one of the most accurate off-the-tee in the field this week and has been strong with his irons to take advantage of the consistently good position he finds himself in after his tee shots. His short game will probably hold him back from having a chance to win, but for $7,100 he is an excellent value to be the 5th or 6th golfer in your lineup.

    Others Considered: Tyler Duncan ($7,200), Joseph Bramlett ($7,100)

     

    Outright Betting Picks

    Chris Kirk 31-1 (FD)

    Ben Martin 80-1 (DK)

    Beau Hossler 90-1 (FD)

    Luke List 110-1 (DK)

    Akshay Bhatia 150-1 (DK)

    Joseph Bramlett 180-1 (DK)

     

    Lineup Builder

    Position Player Name DK Salary
    G Si Woo Kim $9,700
    G Matt Wallace $8,500
    G Ben Martin $7,100
    G Brendon Todd $7,900
    G
    G
    REMAINING BUDGET $16,800 for 2 golfers

     

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