• The Divisional Round is here and there is a four-game main slate on DraftKings to dive into. Let’s review every game and go over some spend-up and spend-down spots in each contest.

    For additional Divisional Round content, I reviewed value plays with Mike Fiddle (@mfiddle14) on the DFS Today podcast which you can listen to here.

     

    Before we get into the plays, here are a few general thoughts about how to attack this slate:

    1. I think that there is enough variety of value at WR & TE that it is not necessary to do so at RB. This probably isn’t too dissimilar from how a lot of others will view this week, but other than Miles Sanders ($5,700) there isn’t one RB that I feel comfortable with having in my lineups this week. If you want to take a shot on one of them on large field GPP contests, be my guest, especially with only four games on the slate you will have to get a little weird and uncomfortable to take one down. However, for three-max, single entry or cash builds, I don’t see a reason to do so.
    2. If you have a conviction about one game going nuts and turning into to a complete shootout, don’t be afraid to do a total onslaught and heavily stack the game with multiple players from both teams. There is a lot of risk in building this way, but if you guess right and that one game outscores the rest by a wide margin, you could really separate yourself from the field with a unique roster construction.
    3. Finally, some advice I got when I first started playing DFS and continue to improve upon every week: “It’s not always about who you play, it’s more about how you play them.” This adage applies every week, but especially in condensed slates like this. Playing into ownership is inevitable on slates like this, but being thoughtful about the combination of where your chalk is coming from is so crucial.

    Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts and I’ll be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

     

    Divisional Round Main Slate Props

    Thrive Contest Plays of the Weekend

    Patrick Mahomes 24.5 Completions MORE (85 PTS) – He went over this number in three of the last five, and also went over on this in the Week 10 matchup at home against these same Jaguars (26). Jacksonville ranks 30th in Pass DVOA which the Chiefs should look to exploit early and often on Saturday.

    Tyler Boyd 0.5 Rec TDs LESS (80 PTS) – Touchdowns by nature come with a lot of variance, especially at the WR position. Yes, Cincinnati has one of the highest passing rates in the league, but I am not in the business of counting on a touchdown from Boyd who has one appearance in the endzone in his last nine played games. Chase, Higgins and Mixon account for 60% of the Bengals redzone targets which is where all but one of Boyd’s TD’s came come from this year.

    George Kittle 4.5 Rec LESS (95 PTS) – Since Brock Purdy has been behind center for the 49ers, Kittle has come back to life. However, that has come in the way of touchdowns and a couple big receiving yard totals and big plays. Kittle has only gone over this number once with Purdy at QB and the Cowboys have defended the TE well this year, allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to the position this season.

    Postseason Props Record YTD

    2-1

     

    *All Lines and Totals are courtesy of ThriveFantasy

    Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

    Game Time: Saturday 4:30 pm ET

    Line: Kansas City -8.5

    Total: 53

    Spend Up: Patrick Mahomes ($8,000)

    I came into this week ready to write about Travis Kelce ($7,700) in this spot (I still love Kelce to smash in this spot as the Jags have really struggled defending the TE this year). As the week has gone on however, Hurts and Allen are gaining more steam and if that is going to be the case, I will gladly pay the extra $200-$400 to get up to Mahomes. Jacksonville has enough firepower on offensive to keep this game competitive and keep the Chiefs’ passing game engaged for all four quarters. There is even the chance for some snow during this game which always favors the offense, if we get enough of it.

    Spend Down: Zay Jones ($4,700)

    Zay may very well come in as the highest owned WR this week. Given his role in what projects to be the highest scoring game of the weekend, this is simply a misprice on DraftKings. Jones saw 13 targets last week while the Jags were staging their epic comeback against the Chargers and given the 8.5 spread, Vegas believes Jacksonville will be trailing in this contest as well. Kansas City has also surrendered 1.2 touchdowns per game to opposing WRs this year, which ranks tied for 31st in the league while they rank 24th in fantasy points given up to opposing WRs (28.1). Expect Jones to easily pay off this price tag on Saturday.

     

    New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

    Game Time: Saturday 8:15 pm ET

    Line: Philadelphia -7.5

    Total: 48

    Spend Up: Saquon Barkley ($7,900)

    Again, if I was writing this article earlier in the week, Jalen Hurts ($7,600) would be the selection here. I still love Hurts and still will be playing him in cash game lineups (and some tournaments), but will be taking the ownership discount in a majority of my tournament lineups. As for Barkley, he has to produce in a monster way if the Giants are going to win this game. I don’t see Daniel Jones ($5,800) slicing up this stout Eagles secondary the way he did Minnesota last week. This Eagles defense can be vulnerable to the run game. Saquon is also on the field for passing-down work and won’t get played off the field in a negative game script.

    Spend Down: Richie James ($3,900)

    I don’t love this spot for the Giants pass-catchers, but James is in the best spot of the bunch. The Eagles primary slot corner Avonte Maddox has been ruled out for this game which is a nice boost for the Giants WR as that is where he plays most of his snaps. I also expect Daniel Jones to be needing to get rid of the ball quickly given the mismatch between Philly’s strong defensive line and the G-Men’s overall poor offensive line and that is where James comes in handy. I can see a similar 7/61/1 stat line that we some from James against the Eagles in Week 14.

     

    Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

    Game Time: Sunday 3:00 pm ET

    Line: Buffalo -5.5

    Total: 48.5

    Spend Up: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800)

    The decision in this game came down to Chase vs Diggs ($7,700) and you could even play both in the same lineup if you wanted to. But if I’m choosing one, it’s Chase. Double-digit targets in eight of his last nine games played and the Bills have struggled defensing opposing WRs given their injury concerns in the secondary. Cornerback Dane Johnson and Safety Jordan Poyer are nursing injuries this week and this sets up as a prime Chase spot.

    Spend Down: Gabe Davis ($4,800)

    To quote Michael Scott “No question about it I’m ready to get hurt again.” While Davis did get there last week with a stat line of 6/113/1, Davis has been underwhelming for the most part this season, going under 50 yards in five of his previous six outings. I considered Isaiah McKenzie ($3,300) here too, but after further thought, I want nothing to do with the roulette wheel that is the slot receiver for the Bills between McKenzie, Beasley ($3,000) and Shakir ($3,000). This price is good enough to reel me back in for Davis, who has averaged 17.4 yards per reception this season and has the boom potential we are looking for to win a tournament as a deep threat in a Josh Allen ($7,800) led offense.

     

    Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

    Game Time: Sunday 6:30 pm ET

    Line: San Francisco -4

    Total: 46

    Spend Up: CeeDee Lamb ($7,300)

    The Cowboys are going to need to take advantage of a vulnerable 49ers secondary if they are going to win this game. San Francisco is 28th against WRs this year and CeeDee has solidified himself as the alpha in the passing attack this year having seen under seven targets in a game only three times on the season. We have also seen the Cowboys willing to amp up the passing attack against stout run defenses. Recent blowup performances against this secondary by DK Metcalf and Davante Adams have proven this is a high upside spot for Lamb here.

    Spend Down: Deebo Samuel ($5,900)

    Michael Gallup ($3,800) is also a terrific spend down option here as Dallas’ main down-the-field threat where the 49ers are most susceptible. Having said that, I don’t understand this price. We live in a world where Jerick McKinnon ($6,000) is more expensive than Deebo; wild times. Samuel is good for 3-5 rushing attempts to go along with his passing game work and there is no one on the Dallas defense that can match the physicality that Deebo plays with. We have seen time and time again his big play upside and has a ceiling matched by few at the position.

     

    Lineup Builder

    Position Player Name DK Salary
    QB Patrick Mahomes $8,000
    RB
    RB
    WR
    WR Zay Jones $4,700
    WR Michael Gallup $3,800
    TE Travis Kelce $7,700
    FLEX Deebo Samuel $5,900
    DST
    REMAINING BUDGET $19,900 for 4 plays

     

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