December 11, 2023, 5:08 pm
Here are some Pick ‘Em plays our team is looking at for Monday’s games! Today we’ll have a new DFS contributor trying his hand at Pick ‘Ems, so everyone welcome Nathan Hernandez to the fold! He’s been a rock solid fantasy football contributor and is branching out and broadening his horizons.
Pretty awful calls all around on my part, but we did take some lines with a lot of variance. Hopefully, we can turn this baby around with some big wins on a big slate.
Pick ‘Em Lobby Plays
Max Strus O14.5 pts
We have Strus projected for about 19 points and that should be the case in every game. Any time it significantly sinks below that number, I’m going to be on the over. Here it is and here I am. Yes, the Magic slow the pace a bit, so I get why this number is a little lower. I don’t mind and I actually like when I know why a line is vastly different from what we project.
Josh Hart O8.5 pts
Mitchell Robinson is going to be on the sidelines for a few months with a foot injury. That should mean that Josh Hart is locked into a 30+ minute role nightly. If he can get that much run, he should be in line for double-digit scoring. He needs to hit a three-pointer or two.
Jordan Clarkson O17.5 pts
No Lauri Markkanen here, so there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Clarkson against a defense that gives up points pretty regularly. The Jazz are sure to want to showcase Clarkson to see if they can net a decent return in a trade.
Trey Murphy O13.5 pts
We need the shot to fall to hit this, but he’s got the shot volume to get there easily. Enter the Timberwolves who happen to have some lapses on defense. Look for Murphy to continue to shoot the ball off passes from the post from Zion Williamson.
Nikola Vucevic O10.5 rebs
Big men playing against the Bucks usually play well as they are allowed to sag off a bit on defense with Giannis not being a threat from deep. I expect that to be the case again here, and Vucevic should be in line for 11 boards at the very least. He’s crushed this over in the last two.
ThriveFantasy YTD Record: 41-42
Aaron Gordon O13.0 points
Play the overs against the Hawks as they’ve been playing with space and pace. It leads to elevated lines for the other team on most nights. Gordon has had some muted scoring lines which has brought this number down, but it’s trending up. The Hawks are without their starting power forward and are relying on Saddiq Bey.
Fred VanVleet O17.5 pts
The Spurs are dreadful on offense and defense, but it’s the latter we’re attacking here. Each loss adds a bit of drive for the Spurs, so hopefully they can keep this close for most of the game. If we can get a full allotment of FVV, we should see 18+ points.
Nikola Vucevic O10.5 rebs
See above. Same line.
Keldon Johnson O16.5 pts
Say what you want about Johnson, but he can score the basketball. That happens to be something the Spurs are missing, in general. We have him projected for 4-5 more points than this number, making this a rock solid play.
Cam Johnson O14.5 pts
Cam Thomas came back and rained on our Cam Johnson plays, but the number has fallen now that we’re at the point I want to play the over again. The Kings are a juicy matchup as they struggle to match up in transition. Let’s roll with the over here.
Underdog YTD Record: 92-77-7
Myles Turner o2.5 Blocks + Steals
Myles Turner is among the better defensive bigs in the NBA, and he’s displayed that in recent weeks, hitting the over on this line in six of his last nine games. In that stretch was a prior matchup with the Pistons, where Turner smashed this line with six stocks in late November. Detroit is also surrendering 5.35 stocks per game to opposing centers over their last seven contests, making Turner poised to hit this line today vs. the Pistons.
Fred VanVleet o26.5 Points + Assists
VanVleet has had a decent start to his Rockets tenure, averaging nearly 17 points and nine assists through the first few months of the season. VanVleet has cleared this line in his last 7-of-11 games and gets a date with the Spurs, who have allowed almost 39 P+A per game to opposing point guards in their last seven contests. Our daily projections also have VanVleet finishing the night with 30 P+A, clearing the line by a decent margin.
Coby White o25.0 Points + Assists
One trend I’ve liked to follow is to back point guards taking on the Bucks, who are feeling the loss of Jrue Holiday on the defensive end. Coby White is on a bit of a tear, smashing this line in 4-of-6 contests, pushing in another, and his only miss being just three shy in a blowout loss to the Celtics which saw his night end early. One of his successful games in that stretch was vs. the Bucks, and he hit 30 P+A despite shooting 35% from the field. White is in a fantastic spot to clear this line, once again.
Nikola Jokic u29.5 Points
While Jokic has been nothing short of dominant once again this season, he simply hasn’t been as prolific of a scorer with Jamal Murray on the floor this season. In their 10 games together so far this year, Jokic averages under 27 points per contest, only clearing this line twice, narrowly by a combined four points. The Hawks have done well vs. centers defensively, surrendering less than 20 points a game to opposing fives across their last seven games. Inversely, they’ve also allowed the eighth-most assists to opposing centers, meaning Jokic could look to pass shots up more often than not tonight. Jokic has also NEVER scored more than 27 points in 21 career games vs. Clint Capela.
De’Aaron Fox o2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Fox has been on a bit of a shooting tear, nailing at least three deep balls in three of his last four performances. He also gets a date with the Brooklyn Nets, and this game has shootout written all over it. Both teams are top-four in 3PM per game this season, and combine for nearly 30 threes a game. The Nets are also allowing the most three-pointers to opposing PGs this season, and are the only team allowing at least four per game. As long as Fox doesn’t have an off day, he should easily clear this line before the final buzzer sounds.
Underdog YTD Record: 0-0-0