April 21, 2023, 5:38 pm
As the basketball and hockey playoffs heat up, the storylines in baseball are not slowing down. El Nino returned last night, Oakland fans are getting abandoned and Shohei’s start got moved up to today! We get the start of a 2021 World Series rematch in Astros vs Braves and some great divisional matchups in Padres-Diamondbacks and Blue Jays-Yankees.
Thrive Plays of the Day
Over .5 Runs
The Phillies had a brutal loss to the Rockies yesterday. Expect a bounce-back game out of the home team with Nola on the mound.
Over 1.5 Hits + RBIs
Jram is one of the best hitters in the league and even in a rough series vs the Tigers, he still got his. The one game they won, Jram hit the 3-run shot in a 3-2 win.
Under .5 Runs
Ohtani is on the mound and has been terrific this year. At almost even odds for less than a run, that’s just good value.
Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Angels manager Phil Nevin has let Ohtani work in his previous outings. Before a rain delay cut his last start short, his previous 2 starts went 90+ pitches. His stuff looks as good as ever and he has incorporated the trendy “sweeper” to great effect. The Royals are bottom 3 in strikeout rate, which sets things up nicely for the sensation to get over 7.5 strikeouts at plus money.
Orioles ML @ -178
The Orioles are on a 3-game win streak and have shown they’re for real. They’re starting a 3-game homestand vs the Tigers and I expect them to come out of the gate ready to go. The O’s can win in different fashions, low scoring, high scoring, and their bullpen is good enough to keep them in tight games. Tigers starter Michael Lorenzen was not very good in his last start, giving up 6 ER in 4 innings.
DFS Pillar Plays
Everybody is going to go to Ohtani for the reasons listed above. I can’t blame anybody that does, but if you want to get an edge, you’re going to need to find another option so you can spread out your spending. On a full slate with studs all over the board, finding a pitcher with good value and one that won’t kill you is crucial. I’m mostly going with Pivetta due to the drastic price drop between his last start and this one. His salary last start was $9,200. That’s a huge drop-off. He did get rocked by the Angels, but he had a few good innings and his curveball looked great. Cora kind of left him in there to eat it, even though the game was over. I expect things to be a lot closer and hopefully Pivetta worked through his issues with that extra run.
The former Oakland A’s and Blue Jays infielder, who came to Texas on big money, is having a huge 2023 so far. With Corey Seager out, he’s the engine of this Rangers offense. The former gold glover is averaging 22.5 FPPG in his last 4. That is ridiculous production and with the A’s arriving in town, I’m sorry to say he’s probably going to add insult to injury for those poor fans.
Rizzo is quietly having a stellar season. He’s batting .344 with a 1.027 OPS. He’s the most consistent contributor to this Yankees offense and he has at least one hit in 13 out of his last 15 games. There might be more explosive options, but with Rizzo at $4,300, he’s got a decent floor at a great price. He’s also at home so that short porch is in play.
DFS Value Plays (< $4,000)
It’s hard to find bright spots in this Nationals team, but Candelario is undoubtedly one of them. He’s got power and he’s going to get plenty of opportunities in Washington, who have nothing really to play for. He’s surprisingly consistent and can give you a lot of bang for your buck.
If you want to fade the A’s, Jung is good value to fill out your roster. He’s currently on an 8 game hit streak. He’s only 25 and has a lot of potential at the plate. Jung is averaging 12.25 FPPG in his last four.
This is a value play. The amount of chances Canha gets is worth a shot at this price. He’s a part of this Mets lineup that gets some excellent opportunities based on who is in front of him. He’s priced like a guy who never gets a hit, but he’ll at least get a chance at some RBIs.
Position Player Name Salary P Nick Pivetta $7,600 P C 1B Anthony Rizzo $4,300 2B Marcus Semien $5,700 3B Jeimer Candelario $3,400 SS OF Mark Canha $3,300 OF OF REMAINING BUDGET $25,700 for 5 players. Avg Rem/Player $5,140
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