2025 Week 3 TNF Fantasy Football Preview : MIA @ BUF

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  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on September 18, 2025 12:37 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: September 18, 2025

    TNF – Miami Dolphins @ bufFalo bills

    Point spread: MIA +11.5 | BUF -11.5

    Moneyline: MIA +900 | BUF  -900

    Total: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5

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    Overview:

    This is the biggest spread of the season so far as BUF looks like one of the best teams in the NFL and you never know which MIA team will show up.  Points will come easily for the Bills and opposing running backs have had their way with the MIA in terms of catching passing out of the backfield this year.  The Bills have man-handled MIA over the past few seasons, so this game really comes down to how close MIA keep it.  Tua Tagovailoa has a terrible history vs. elite teams and actually suffered a concussion vs. BUF on TNF last season.  MIA has given up 33 points in b2b games and now faces by far the best offense of the season.  Opponents have scored on 13 of 15 possessions against them, excluding drives that ended with kneel-downs, so expect Josh Allen to move the ball at will and BUF to be running the ball early and late in the game.  The question is what can MIA do vs. a BUF defense that is also leaky as they currently rank dead-last in yards allowed per rush at 6.8.  This is a great fantasy matchup on paper, but I worry about the BUF pass-catchers as there is a good chance BUF rushes for more yards than it passes in this one.

    Quarterbacks:

    Josh Allen is the QB has been the QB1 and the QB25 and that is how it goes these days as he is near-perfect in tough games and keeps it in first gear when it’s a blowout.  He passed for 394 yards in Week 1 and 148 in Week 2 and unless he comes out swinging early, Week 3 is going to look more like Week 2.  BUF is going to put up points in this one, that is almost a lock, but where do they come from.  You clearly start Allen no matter what, but he essentially has one half to rack up the fantasy points unless he gets a cheap rushing TD in the second half.  If MIA can keep it close though, the ceiling is through the roof as this MIA defense will offer no resistance.  The key is what Tua Tagovailoa can bring as he’s been outside the top-15 in both games.  He was great vs. NE, but the Pats defense might only be worse than the Bills.  If the bad BUF defense shows up and the good Tua also makes his appearance, this has shoot-out potential, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.  Over his first five seasons with Miami, Tua Tagovailoa is 1-8 vs. the Bills while averaging 203 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, so back the history and bench Tua rather than swing for the fences.

    Running Backs:

    This is the perfect battle of elite RBs as James Cook and De’Von Achane both have elite matchups.  The Bills will lean on the run and Cook should have a field day as so far Cook has gained 237 combined yards with three touchdowns and six catches on 40 touches.  The Bills aren’t using him as a bell-cow, but the quality makes up for the lack of quantity.  Last year, he drilled Miami on the road (95 combined yards with three touchdowns and one catch) while touching the ball only 12 times. Cook is a smash play here and has a great chance at over 100 all-purpose yards and multiple TDs.  Achane somehow has an even better matchup as BUF has been terrible defending the run, but also the game-script favors Achane to pile up the garbage time points on the check-downs where he is truly dangerous.  He played well in both contests in 2024 (22/96 with seven catches for 69 yards and one score, 121 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches), so he’s got a great shot a top-five RB finish.  If this game gets really cooking, even Ray Davis has some value despite only have 10 carries through two games.  He could be getting mop-up value and is a decent homerun flex play in deeper leagues.  Ollie Gordon is worth stashing, but not starting.

     

    Wide Receivers: 


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    September 18, 2025, 12:37 pm