Rams (+3) @ 49ers (-3)

O/U 48.5

Important notes for Rams:

The Rams are close to the most exciting team on turf again as Matt Stafford has two elite WRs and a stud RB at his disposal.  The Rams just scored 44 points on the Bills and will need to stay hot in a divisional battle on a short week.  They are finally healthy and playing the best football of the season.  They were never going to be a defensive powerhouse this season, but they looked broken as Josh Allen almost mounted an epic comeback.  The 49ers are playing for their lives and their offense has never looked better than last week.   This game has two elite offenses firing on all cylinders and two defenses, potentially limping to the finish line.  I’m starting all my LA stars and expecting them to draw first blood in the fantasy football playoffs.

Important notes for the Niners:

The Niners finally played a complete game vs. CHI and Brock Purdy could have thrown for 500 yards if he wanted to.  The offense is humming and Isaac Guerendo is going to try and play after hurting his ankle.  If this was a normal week where SF plays on Sunday, maybe I would trust him, but not this week.  I love Brock Purdy to stay hot this week and shred the Rams as they won’t want to put too much pressure on their injured rookie RB.  The talk has been Deebo Samuel being scripted out of games and usually that means he should be heavily involved early this game.   Deebo only has 97 yards from scrimmage the past four games and normally that’s a sign that he’s not a factor anymore, but if SF actively gets him involved, he will do damage.  You don’t want to bet against a trend, but when WRs throw tantrums, they are often rewarded.

The QBs: The week starts off with a firefight and both QBs put up top-10 finishes last week.  I love Purdy in this one as he just had 325 yards on only 25 attempts.  I expect him to run more in this game and the Rams to hang around, meaning Purdy should throw north of 30 times as well.  There is no ceiling for him as his pass-catchers are healthy and his third-string RB is banged up.  It’s now or never and I’m betting on now.  Stafford will likely be in catchup mode all game and that’s fine as he excels in the quick hitting passing game.  It’s always tough because do you want the QB who is going to light it up from the start and possibly gear down late or the QB who is going to throw to get back in the game.  Either way, both QBs are in nice spots, but I’m more confident in Purdy this week.

The RBs :  Again, what do you do with Guerendo.  He was great last week and now gets another nice matchup.  He says he’s going to play, but I give him 50/50 on whether he can be effective and last the whole game.  The Niners will definitely limit his snaps and I’d rather be wrong and watch him play well than get burned starting him and having him leave the game in the first quarter.  If it wasn’t the playoffs, I might start him, but the margins are too thin unless you are in a deep league.  14-team I might start him, but not 12 and below.  Also not starting Patrick Taylor, although he might get the goal-line work.  Kyren Williams has a sneaky good matchup as the Niners can’t stop the run this season.  When they get ahead like last week, sure they look great, but Williams has been solid as a rock this season.  Expect 80 yards and a TD as long as the Rams keep it close.

The WRs : Lots of star power here and clearly Puka Nacua is the top dog.  Cooper Kupp has looked better with a WR1 finish last week, but I still don’t trust him.  He’s going to get volume, but it’s all short-yardage stuff and he only really gets value when the Rams are in the red zone.  He’s still a huge TD target and has a good chance to score vs. SF, but he’s not close to what he was.  Nacua is unstoppable and is so much fun to watch.  Deebo is the true question mark.  I said bench him last week because he was trending terribly.  He should get more work in the air and on the ground, but he might in a different phase of his career.  This is the week to back him if you can afford it.  I would start Jauan Jennings over him easily, but trust in Deebo when he stomps his feet.  Jennings should have another great game and I love this spot for him.

The TEs : George Kittle is going to be the TE1 one this week.  This is the best spot possible as he was 6-of-6 for well over a 100 yards last week and was the TE1.  He’s the best offensive threat on SF and they finally know it.  He’s been insane all season and should finish strong.  I’m not starting anyone on the Rams as the passing game goes through Nacua or Kupp.

Best Bet : George Kittle over 61.5 yards with Puka Nacua 88.5 yards +229

The Kittle props are all too low, but if Jennings keeps getting work and they involve Deebo again, it’s possible he takes a backseat.  I wouldn’t bet on it though.  The Nacua line is absurdly high and his catches are 7.5.  He’s one of the best WRs in football right now and this should be a high-scoring game.  I expect the Rams to be passing often and early and Stafford knows where his bread is buttered.  The threat of Kupp keeps defenses from doubling him and Nacua is a beast after the catch.  It might be a sweat, but he should get there eventually.

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