Bears (+10.5) @ Lions (-10.5)

O/U 48.5

Important notes for Bears:

There are people just betting DET every week who are looking at their third home and that is why this line is juiced up.  The Bears are coming off playing their best football of the season the last two weeks and while the defense has wilted a bit, the offense has never looked better.  They may be on a five-game losing streak, but that includes tough losses in b2b games after getting blown out by the Pats.  Despite the losing streak, they are trending up and Caleb Williams had two TDs vs. MIN after going four straight without racking up a single TD.  The Lions are the better team, but this line is a trap and the Bears can definitely hang around.  The way to attack the Lions is through the air as they have allowed the bottom-five most passing yards and are the second worst yards-per-pass-attempt at 7.8.  I always say styles make fights and the Bears match up really nicely in this one.

Important notes for the Lions:

This team is a legit juggernaut, but they only scored 24 points in an easy matchup vs. IND and they may have peaked too early.  They might have also lost one of their core pillars of attacks with David Montgomery getting hurt, but they could be even better with Jahmyr Gibbs leading the charge.  There are no holes on offense and if the CHI defense keeps slipping, Jared Goff could have a field day.  Goff just threw zero TDs last week and at home, he is almost a lock to bounce back.  I like a high scoring game and it’s just a matter of trying to force DET into FGs.  It will be interesting to see if Montgomery plays which he’s trending towards, but how effective can he be on a short week.  You still have to play him as he scores every game, but buyer beware.

The QBs: This could be a firefight as under a new OC, Caleb Williams finally looks like the future franchise superstar. He’s got at least 25 rushing in three of the last four games and is keeping defenses on their toes with his dual-threat ability.  This game will have a playoff vibe as it’s a divisional game on Thanksgiving, expect the best out of Williams and he’s a low-end QB1 this week as there should be plenty of points and him needing to pass to keep up in the second half.  You have to start Goff this week as well because he’s at home and never plays two bad games in a row anymore.  You saw what he did after his five INTs a couple of weeks ago.  The Bears pass d isn’t what is was a month ago and Sam Darnold just lit them up, so expect Goff to do more of the same.  250 yards and two TDs is the floor for him in this one.  I’m  mildly confident starting both QBs this week as long as I don’t have Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts.  That doesn’t mean both are must-start, I just like both to put big numbers.

The RBs :The Lions love to bottle up the run game and just shut down Jonathan Taylor.  D’Andre Swift isn’t Taylor, but it’s got revenge vibes for him and Montgomery.  Expect the Bears to finally play smart and expect Swift to be much more effective in the passing game.  Montgomery won’t see his usually allocation of touches if he plays, so expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be the workhorse.  He’s a top-five RB this week, where as Montgomery is more of a RB2 just because of the injury.  Roschon Johnson will do in a pinch, but he will need to barrel through for a TD to not be a bust this week.  I’d say his odds are 1-in-3.  Swift is only viable in PPR leagues and I have a feeling Gibbs is going to win people their matchup in the first game of the week.

The WRs : This game has WR for days and as long as you have any of the top-five, you are riding with them.  DJ Moore has finally shown up and might be here to stay after a dreadful start to the season.  He did it all last week and might be my favorite play this week.  Keenan Allen is showing some consistency, but he’s on the other side of his career at this point.  He’s got a high floor and not much of a ceiling.  Rome Odunze is coming, it’s just a matter of when.  He’s got 10 targets in b2b games and once he and Williams build some chemistry, he’s going to take over.  Amon-Ra St. Brown finally didn’t score, but neither did any other pass-catchers.  He should get back on track this week.  After a slow start where I might have said he wasn’t going to beast this season, he’s done exactly that and done more with less.  Back the stars in big games and there is no bigger star than the sun god.  Jameson Williams is back doing his deep threat thing, but only has one reception of 25+ yards in the last three games.  Everyone is a must-start in this game.

The TEs : I hate writing about Sam LaPorta.  He ruined my fantasy season and I probably should have seen it coming.  The real story is that the Lions have been healthy all season and haven’t had to pivot or adapt.  You can’t play LaPorta and just have to stash him and hope he busts loose in the fantasy playoffs.  Cole Kmet has shown some signs of life, but I don’t trust him.  You can probably do better.

Best Bet : DJ Moore over 54.5 rec yards parlayed with Jahmyr Gibbs over 71.5 rush yards is +230

I had to do a double-take at the Moore yards.  That seems shockingly low for a game with a negative game-script and a finally dialed in Caleb Williams.  I will be tying this to a lot of bets.  The Gibbs bet is just smart money as we don’t expect a full Monty and if the game goes to script, Gibbs will be barreling down in the second half.  The Lions love to run no matter what and the only real threat is if the Bears come out guns blazing and get a lead.  I doubt that and even then the Lions won’t abandon the strength of their team.  I really, really, really like this bet.

Giants (+3.5) @ Cowboys (-3.5)

O/U 37.5

Important notes for Giants:

Things went from bad to worse after releasing Daniel Jones.  The Giants rolled over early vs. the Buccs and the drama kept unfolding.  Superstar WR Malik Nabers threw his coach under the bus and backup QB promoted to starter, Tommy DeVito was terrible and also got hurt.  It looks like we see Drew Lock in this one, either way this game is a stinker.  Tyrone Tracy fumbled again and he could be seeing his snapshare dwindle.  This is the game where you want to eat an early dinner, take a nap or walk the dog.  I’m not sure I can start anyone on NYG comfortably other than Nabers, who is going to go supernova.

Important notes for the Cowboys:

The Boys saved their season, which was probably the worst thing that could happen.  Give me a clean death any day.  Cooper Rush looked competent feeding CeeDee Lamb and that’s at least a viable strategy.  Even Rico Dowdle finally got cooking on the ground.  I still don’t love him, but both these defenses have given up and while the offenses aren’t anything to write home about, there’s a tiny ounce of value to be scrapped.  I’m not starting anyone other than Lamb in this one and maybe Dowdle if I’m desperate.  The Giants can’t stop the run and DAL might actually be ahead in this one.

The QBs: This will be quick because it’s ugly.  Don’t go near either QB unless it’s Superflex and even then, pray.  Rush looked solid in a goofy game and this game could be equally weird.  The total is low and I expect a field goal affair, so don’t expect a repeat multi-TD performance.  Expect even less out of Lock as he’s the third strong QB injury and DeVito did nothing to prove he should be starting.  If Lock feeds Nabers, that will help, but neither QBs are viable in any format.

The RBs : Tyrone Tracy was on his way to being a breakout RB for fantasy GMs, but he lost one game because of a fumble and proved last week it’s more than a glitch, it’s a legit problem.  No coaches like fumbling and expect more Devin Singletary this week even though Tracy is the better back.  You still have to start Tracy as DAL is only middle of the pack vs. the run and there is no scenario where they let whoever is QB just drop back 40 times.  Dowdle is everyone’s sleeper, but I don’t see it.  He’s scored zero rushing TDs all season and can game-scripted out in a flash.  He’s got low-end flex appeal because the Giants have given up the second-most TDs to RBs and are bottom-five in rush yards allowed.  if he’s ever going to score on the ground, it’s this game, just don’t bank on it.

The WRs : The only reason to watch this game is Lamb vs. Nabers.  It’s the only viable bet and the only two must-starts.  Lamb did more with less last week, as Rush is targeting him around the line of scrimmage, so for PPR leagues it’s great.  He’s got 12 targets in b2b games and is even getting some gadget rush plays.  He’s not going to be a top-three WR again this season, but he’s still putting up fantasy points.  The fact that he’s gone four games without scoring is a problem.  Nabers though, if there is one thing we have learned about football, it’s when WRs throw temper tantrums, they get fed.  It’s not even a rule, it’s a natural law.  If he doesn’t have 10 targets, I’ll eat this article.  I’m expecting 10 receptions, a TD and well over a 100 yards.  DAL isn’t smart enough to double-team him.  I’m not starting any other WRs in this game if I don’t have to.

The TEs : Jake Ferguson still wasn’t practicing, so we could get another dose of Luke Schoonmaker.  He scored and he’s fine, but he’s a TE stream at best.  I’m not even naming the NYG TE.  Okay, fine.  Theo Johnson, don’t start him.

Best Bet : Malik Nabers over 65.5 rec yards parlayed with CeeDee Lamb receptions 6.5 +254

You could just as easily go Nabers 5.5 receptions with Lamb 6.5.  Either way.  I will set the record for Nabers bets this week and I might even get my dream of moving a number.  He will hit this by half, it doesn’t matter who is throwing him the ball.  A Nabers ladder is also a fun bet and Nabers with DJ Moore yards is also very attractive.  Nabers, Nabers and more Nabers.  We’ve seen Rush loves to hyper-target Lamb and he’s not even making his other reads.  It’s just quick hits which is great for receptions.  This game is ugly, but the star WRs are not.

Dolphins (+3.5) @ Packers (-3.5)

O/U 47.5

Important notes for Dolphins:

The demise of Tyreek Hill isn’t having a negative effect on the MIA offense as he still attracts the teeth of the defense and allows everyone else to eat.  Jaylen Waddle is coming off one of the best games of his career and Jonnu Smith looks like a top-five TE.  The NFL is always about peaking at he right time and MIA is doing just that.  Jaylen Wright has usurped Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane is one of the most dangerous dual-threat RBs in the league.  MIA has scored 34 points in b2b games and there is no stopping Tua Tagovailoa right now.  It won’t be as easy as last week, but the Packers defense is mostly smoke, mirrors and INTs.  The weather will be chilly tomorrow night, but not debilitatingly so and MIA should be able to move the ball at will.

Important notes for the Packers:

The Packers are a legit playoff team and a threat in the NFC, but they aren’t quite as formidable as they looked vs. SF.  Jordan Love can’t seem to stay healthy and while he should be close to 100% in this game, the MIA defense is very intimidating.  Romeo Doubs is likely out with a concussion, but they have elite depth at WR, so that’s not a deal-breaker, but the question is whether Josh Jacobs can carry this offense on a short week.  This is a really good game and you want to get in most of your players as no Doubs means plenty of Jayden Reed and maybe even a dash of Christian Watson.  Dontayvion Wicks is the sleeper WR I really like in this one.

The QBs: Tua vs. Love is a nice matchup and this might come down to who makes the least mistakes.  Tua is playing as well as he ever has and has the offense humming as he’s got seven TDs in the last two games.  The Packers are likely missing stud CB Jaire Alexander and as long as Tua can navigate the cold and not throw an INT to Xavier McKinney, he should be in line for a solid fantasy day.  He’s not a must-start because of his history of cold weather and playing vs. good teams, but he’s got a solid floor and some upside, especially if Tyreek Hill can get loose downfield.  Love is also a tough play because of how well the MIA defense is holding up.  They’ve allowed under 20 points in three straight games and with the playoffs in sight, this game will be akin to a PPV event.  I’m not starting either QB in 1QB leagues if I can help it, but on a short week, expect each team to lean on the arms instead of the legs of the RBs.

The RBs :Josh Jacobs and De’Von Achane are polar opposites and on a cold night in Lambeau, Jacobs has the clear edge.  Achane couldn’t get it going in the run game last week, but scored twice through the air which is double Jacob’s career receiving TDs.  I’d expect a similar game plan here as Achane is bubble wrapped and MIA doesn’t want to run their star into the trenches in cold weather on the road.  I like Achane a lot more in PPR leagues this week.  Jacobs is going to get his as he seems to always do.  He’s got three top-five finishes in the last four weeks and has carried this GB team all season.  MIA is pretty stout vs. the run and I expect both team to air it out in this one.  Jacobs has gotten better as a receiver and while he’s a must-start, I don’t love his ceiling this week.  Mostert is unplayable right now and Jaylen Wright is a high-end stash with upside rest of the season.

The WRs : What do you do with Tyreek Hill.  You have to start him, but you no longer can rely on him.  He’s got one top-15 finish and that was in Week 1 and it’s no longer a matter of time.  I would start Jayden Reed over him this week, so he’s a WR2 with potential upside.  Waddle is the new must-start and he’s finally broke through and delivered on his promise.  He’s going to have a big game here.  The GB receivers continue to confuse and confound and you have to rank them Reed, Watson and Wicks, but Watson had a bad drop and finished with zero catches last week.  I don’t like his matchup and think Wicks might be the better play, but remember Watson blew up for 140 yards two weeks ago.  This game could have fireworks, but the more research I do, the more I’m expecting a slog.  I think there will be plenty of yards, but not much scoring.

The TEs : Jonnu Smith, welcome to the dance.  He might win people leagues as he’s got b2b top-three finishes and isn’t a fluke.  MIA has plenty of weapons, but once you establish yourself in the offense, the plays start flowing through you.  He looks great over the middle and I love him in this game.  Love him.  Tucker Kraft had his one blowup game and he still has three TDs in the last five weeks, but he’s on the outside looking when looking at TEs I want to start this week.  Smith is must-start, Kraft is more of a fringe play.

Best Bet : Packers -2.5 alt line and Jayden Reed rec yards over 48.5 +193

I have to do a little research into this game and this my least favorite bet.  I can’t back Tua on the road in the cold even though he’s playing great.  I expect a much better Love game, but I foresee a low scoring game, so the under is a nice play as well.  I like Reed assuming Doubs is out, but the MIA secondary is pretty stout.  As of now, this game is a stayaway, but favorites usually cover on Thanksgiving games.

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