Ravens (-2.5) @ Chargers (+2.5)

O/U 50.5

Important notes for Ravens:

This has MNF classic written all over it as the Ravens are coming off a loss and ready for redemption.  Lamar Jackson is Mr. MNF as he is 6-2 and has 20 TDs to zero INTs.  He’s coming off his worst game of the season and should be able to feast on a solid LAC defense that just allowed Joe Burrow to sling for 350+ yards and three TDs. Derrick Henry was held in check vs. PIT even though he still averaged 5.0 YPC.  Expect the Chargers to sell-out vs. the run and force Jackson to beat them downfield.  The Ravens have moved the ball well against the other top defenses they’ve played this year.  This doesn’t figure to be a defensive battle and although both Harbaugh coaches preach that side of the ball, there isn’t much you can do when both offenses are firing on all cylinders.  The Ravens might be without run stopper Roquaon Smith, which could open things up for a J.K Dobbins revenge game, but expect the Chargers to attack the BAL pass defense which ranks 26th in the NFL.

Important notes for the Chargers:

No one is playing better QB than Justin Herbert lately as he’s been lights out in four of his past five games, averaging 274.2 passing yards during that stretch.  His unproven WR core at the beginning of the season has stepped up and Ladd McConkey who is questionable with a shoulder injury is coming off his breakout game and Quentin Johnston has scored in three straight weeks.  It all starts with Herbert, who has also been running the ball very well and his seven touchdowns to zero interceptions have been a big reason the Chargers have managed 28.5 points per game in the last four weeks.  There is no one way to stop this offense and while the Ravens will likely bottle up the run game, that might play right into Herbert’s hands as he should be able to pick apart this BAL pass defense.  Yes, this game looks like a points carousel.  Both teams have been elite ATS and it’s near impossible to pick who will come out on top and the proverbial last team with the ball is the best bet.

The QBs: Herbert vs. Jackson is a low-key MVP battle and while Jackson has been better all season, no one has been that Herbert better over the last stretch.  The Chargers have a great defense on paper, but they’ve picked on sub-par QBs all season and now get a hungry Jackson who shines on primetime. The Chargers also tend to allow rushing production to the QB position. They have given up the ninth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year.  Jackson is obviously the QB1 this week, it’s just a matter of how many fantasy points will he score.  Expect north of 30.  Herbert is right behind Jackson, as Baltimore is a pass-funnel defense and has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.  He’s got at least 30 rushing yards in three of the last four games and could look to scamper often to combat the BAL pass rush.  His pass yards are going to be the best bet for this game.

The RBs : The threat with any game with a lofty total and two elite QBs is that is reverts into a ground game.  That is a legit threat in this one as Derrick Henry is terrifying.  He’s slowed down a little with three games outside the top-10 in the last four, but he’s still scoring TDs and getting all the work.  The Chargers are just outside the top-10 for rush defense and while I like Henry to got for 70 and a TD, I don’t love his matchup this week or his odds to go full Saquon.  The Ravens are allowing 77.5 rushing yards per game and that doesn’t bode well for J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in a double revenge spot.  Again, if Roquaon Smith is out, that changes things, but at this point, you have to start Dobbins if you saved the roster spot.  This has the feel of both teams airing it out and none of these RBs are great in the passing game.  Justice Hill could have a sneaky game, but you are only starting him if you are desperate.

The WRs : This game is going to be electric and everyone is on the board.  Zay Flowers is due after going b2b games under 40 yards.  The Chargers have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.3%) in the NFL, which doesn’t bode well for Flowers going over the top, but he should be able to thrive in the short passing game.  I like him more in a PPR league this week.  You have to assume he’s due as he was over 100 yards in four of his previous five games before the two duds.  Rashod Bateman has acted as the deep threat this season and that won’t be on the table tonight, it’s possible Diontae Johnson finally breaks through, but I need to see it first.  I’m expecting Jackson to have a great game, but it’s hard to pinpoint who will be the beneficiaries.  On the Chargers side, it’s much more simple.  McConkey blew up last week and assuming he plays on MNF, this is the smash spot of the season.  Since Week 9, Baltimore has moved to heavy two-high usage with the seventh-highest rate (58%) in the NFL. Against two high, McConkey leads the team with a 21.3% target share and the Ravens have been shredded by elite WRs all season.  That also opens the door for Quentin Johnston, who only caught 2-of-8 targets last week.  With the Ravens moving to a two-high system to stop the bleeding, Johnston might not see a similar volume to last week.  He’s still a solid play, but he might be the odd man out.

The TEs : It’s TE season again and Mark Andrews is as boom-or-bust as they go.  He was the TE1 two weeks ago and the TE 30 and 28 in the game before and after.  The Chargers are the only defense in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a TD to a TE, so don’t bet against a streak.  He’s still a solid play in a high-scoring game, but if he doesn’t find the end zone, there is a cap on what he will produce.  Isaiah Likely got back on track last week in a tough matchup and could be another sneaky weapon if the Chargers take away the deep ball.  Andrews is probably the better play, but in reality, they cancel each other out.  Will Dissly had the best game of the season last week and is coming on strong.  He’s got six targets in b2b games and it’s clear Herbert trusts him and will continue to vs. a defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.  Dissly is a start over both Andrews and Likely.

Best Bet : Justin Herbert is the clear play this week and I’m going alt line 300+ yards parlayed with 1.5 TDs for +274

if you want the easy bet, just take his passing yards prop at 263.5, but I’m greedy.  I think the Ravens are the better team and they are favored, so if they go up, expect Herbert to pick them apart.  I like both teams to score close to 30 points and the only way the Chargers are getting there is on Herbert’s arm.  The only real threat to this are if the Chargers go up big early or there are some PI penalties to shorten the field.  There’s a lot to love in this game and if you really want to be greedy, target both QBs to combine for 600+ passing yards at +430.  There are too many weapons to single out a single receiver, so just back the elite QBs at the peak of their powers.

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