October 12, 2023, 4:54 pm
Thursday Night Football in the NFL & College
Keith Cork (@ethosKeith)
Broncos @ Chiefs (Thursday Night Football)
Travis Kelce 6+ receptions (-140) 1.4u to win 1u (PointsBet)
This is now -145, but I’d still be taking it. The Broncos are terrible on defense across the board and Kelce has been off to a slow start at the beginning of this season. Everything is set for him to have a HUGE game today against the lowly Broncos, and I expec thim to do just that. He’s had 6+ receptions in three straight weeks with his only miss being in Week 2 where he saw four receptions his return from a scary preseason injury. I think he’ll be just fine to catch six balls here.
Russell Wilson O215.5 passing yards (-115) 1.15u to win 1u (PointsBet)
The Broncos will likely be playing from behind all game, making it necessary for Wilson to unleash throws left and right. He’s gone over in 3-of-5 games, and the two misses were against pretty bad teams. The Chiefs are not a bad team. Mahomes hasn’t played particularly well this season, but eventually he’s going to have a good game. Either way, the prospect of the Broncos being down multiple touchdowns early remains, and seems probable.
Doug Reid (@doug_reid34)College FootballWest Virginia at Houston, 7:00pm ESTWest Virginia -3 (-108), 1.08 units (Pinnacle)West Virginia comes in 4-1 and the 9th toughest schedule per the Power Rankings Guru site, while Houston 2-3 has the 57th. The Cougars have struggled this season in their Big 12 debit and in their three losses this season to Rice, TCU and Texas Tech they have give up an average of 42.67 points per game so could be in tough tonight against the Mountaineers offence who has wins versus Texas Tech and home and on the road at TCU. West Virginia is currently getting 70% of the bets and 72% of the money so both the public and the pros are on the favourite.SMU at East Carolina, 7:30pm EST– Total Over 49 (-110), 1.1 units (Draft Kings)This total has moved to 49.5 at most books so grabbing before that move. SMU is favoured by -11.5 so is expected to win easy against a struggling East Carolina team however, I think the home Pirates can put up some points and keep this close which means SMU won’t be able to take their foot of the gas late. Currently 72% of the bets and 75% of the money is on the Over so the public and pro are well aligned for this Sun Belt contest.____NHLDetroit at New Jersey, 7:30pm EST– New Jersey ML (-226), 1 unit (Pinnacle)New Jersey is a young team on the rise while Detroit will likely struggle this season so I’m on the home Devils as they are much better on offense and stronger team defence. I’m easing into the NHL this season and don’t usually take such a big moneyline, which is why I’m just putting one unit down, to win 0.4425 units back. Currently New Jersey is taking 94% of the bets and 92% of the money so both the public and pros are on the Devils tonight.St. Louis at Dallas, 8:00pm EST– Dallas ML (-205), 1 unkit (Draft Kings)St. Louis is expected to struggle once again this season in the Western Conference while I think Dallas will once again fly under the radar and could be a top four team in the Conference. Once again, just playing a one unit bet on this big Moneyline price. Currently Dallas is getting 92% of the bets and 81% of the money, so while that shows some more sharp money than the public on the Blues, it still gives me a strong signal to take the home Stars in their season opener._____MLBAtlanta at Philadelphia, 8:07pm EST– Philadelphia ML +134, 1 unit (Pinnacle)– Suarez (Phil) Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-105), 1.05 units (Draft Kings)Philadelphia looks to close out this National League Divisional Series tonight at home and will send lefty Ranger Suzarez to the hill while Atlanta starts their ace Spencer Strider. I see this game as a coin flip so getting +130 or better on Philadelphia is a good value to me. Strider is definitely the better starter however, Suarez started game one of this series and went 3.2 innings allowing one hit, one walk, no runs and four strikeouts. I would expect him to go a similar length and not be allowed to face the Atlanta lineup a third time, and maybe even be pulled before that. I think the Phillies will be happy to make this a bullpen game if Suarez gets hit early so they will try to limit damage as soon as possible, versus a regular season game where they would likely let him work through it. It’s because of this short leash I’m also on the Under 3.5 hits allowed by Suarez as Philadelphia won’t allow him to give up many baserunners regardless of how early it happens.