What was expected?

In 2023, the Red Sox finished last in the AL East at 78-84. Entering 2024, they were expected to be an average-to-below average team by many, likely to finish just below .500 in a very difficult division. The playoffs seemed a bit far-fetched, especially considering that the New York Yankees had just added Juan Soto and the Baltimore Orioles had added Corbin Burnes. Those two were expected to duke it out for the division crown, leaving the Red Sox in the dust.

The Red Sox were ushering in a new front office regime in 2024, after firing former general manager Chaim Bloom in September of 2023. Bloom struggled to be embraced in Boston after he traded star outfielder Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the start of his tenure, even though that was a move that likely was pushed upon him by ownership. The Red Sox opted to hire former MLB relief pitcher Craig Breslow to be their president of baseball operations entering 2024, hoping to build towards the next era of winning baseball in Boston.

Breslow kicked off his first offseason with the reigns to the Red Sox by changing up the team quite a bit through free agency and trades. The team signed SP Lucas Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million deal and SP Cooper Criswell to a pre-arbitration contract to add depth to an already righty-heavy rotation.

Where Breslow really made his impact on the season was through trades, none more notable than shipping off veteran SP Chris Sale to the Atlanta Braves for 2B Vaughn Grissom. Grissom, 23, had impressed with the Braves in his age-21 season when the team needed to rush him up due to other injuries. The Red Sox thought that they might be getting a quality middle infielder with room to grow and could dump the $17 million owed to the lefty Sale in his age-35 season. Spoiler alert, this trade is looking like a win for Atlanta unless Grissom develops into a good player.

The Red Sox also shuffled around their outfield mix, trading the left-handed hitting Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees for three right-handed minor league pitchers. To fill his spot, they acquired right-hander Tyler O’Neill from the St. Louis Cardinals for two right-handed minor league arms of their own. Verdugo, 28, was the team’s main return when they traded away Betts to the Dodgers. While he was a solid player, he was not MVP-caliber and never made an All-Star team. Over his four year tenure in Boston, Verdugo batted .281 with a .761 OPS, hitting 43 home runs in 493 games. O’Neill, 29, is a physical specimen as an athlete, but lost his way a bit in St. Louis. He hit 34 home runs with a .912 OPS in 2021 for the Cardinals, but was held back by injuries in the previous two seasons. The Red Sox hoped that he would be able to find his 2021 form and be an upgrade over Verdugo.

The team was returning its’ star 3B Rafael Devers, who would be entering year two of his ten-year, $313.5 million contract. At age-27, he was expected to be an All-Star and the face of the franchise.

How did it go?

The Red Sox finished the season in third place in the AL East, at 81-81. Their run differential of +4 was the closest to zero in the sport, despite scoring the ninth-most runs. They had a poor showing from their pitching staff, who surrendered the eighth-most runs in baseball. The Red Sox had a playoff-caliber offense, but not the pitching staff to back it up. When you take a team with the ninth-best offense and the 23rd-best pitching in the league, you get an average team, which is exactly what the Red Sox were.

To start on a positive note, the Red Sox outfield was outstanding this past season. Jarren Duran, 27, had a 6.7 fWAR season and not only made the All-Star Game, but was also the MVP of said exhibition. Wilyer Abreu, 25, probably would have been a top-three Rookie of the Year finalist, had he not missed a few weeks due to injury. O’Neill held up his end of the bargain as well, posting a .511 slug in 473 plate appearances. The outfield was a huge engine for this offense’s success.

There were notable injuries for the Red Sox offensively as well, as SS Trevor Story dislocated his shoulder and played in just 26 games. 1B Triston Casas, who was expected to take a big step forward this season, missed about 100 games due to a rib cartilage tear. O’Neill and Abreu’s shorter injury absences created a rift in the team’s outfield and gave way to less productive players getting regular run, as well.

As far as the pitching goes, they had a core group of four starters make it through most of the season.  Tanner Houck, 28, was the best of the bunch, a lanky righty who finally took a big step forward after flashing a lot of potential for years. The fifth starter role was in flux for much of the season when Garrett Whitlock, 28, had an internal brace procedure done in April and missed the rest of the season.

The Red Sox made a few moves at the trade deadline, adding C Danny Jansen from the Toronto Blue Jays, RP Luis Garcia from the Los Angeles Angels, SP James Paxton from the Los Angeles Dodgers, and SP Quinn Priester from the Pittsburgh Pirates. None of these moves were enough to catapult the team into the playoffs.

What was a success for the Red Sox this year was the development of their farm system. OF Roman Anthony continued to look like one of the best minor league outfielders in the sport, posting an .894 OPS between AA and AAA at just 20 years old. SS Marcelo Mayer, 21, was the 2021 draft’s fourth overall pick, and he turned in an .850 OPS in Double-A. 2B/OF/SS Kristian Campbell, 22, had a .997 OPS across the three highest levels in the minor leagues. C Kyle Teel, 22, and 2B Chase Meidroth, 23, both had an OPS over .800 in the upper minor leagues, as well. The Red Sox have plenty of capital to retool and add quality young hitters, or trade some of these pieces to improve their pitching staff for 2025.

Fantasy Stud?

The winner of the title “fantasy stud” for the Red Sox is their breakout star outfielder, Jarren Duran.

Duran was a good player in 2023, he hit .295 with a 120 wRC+ and 24 stolen bases in 102 games, but he reached another level in 2024 with a clean bill of health. He has always been a strong defender and base runner, but it was clear that he was building towards being a valuable player in all aspects following this output in 2023.

In 2024, Duran slashed .285/.342/.492 with 21 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 111 runs scored, and 75 RBI in 735 plate appearances. In fantasy baseball, availability matters and the only games that Duran missed were from a suspension due to an interaction with a fan in his home ballpark. Duran certainly did not need a tennis racket to be a huge value to fantasy teams, as his average draft position (ADP) on the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) website was 141, making him a huge bargain.

Duran will likely push into the top three rounds in fantasy drafts in 2025 because of his top flight abilities in batting average, stolen bases, and runs scored, while achieving career-best seasons in home runs and RBI.

Rafael Devers and Tanner Houck were also considered, but given the value Duran provided with his production in all roto categories, he got the distinction of “fantasy stud” for the Red Sox in 2024.

Fantasy Dud?

The Red Sox only had one player drafted in the top-90 according to NFBC ADP, so there was nobody who seemed to be a true performance-based dud on this team. It’s a little unfair to call someone who got injured a “dud,” but the person who provided the least value based on their draft position was Trevor Story.

Story (NFBC ADP: 167), was not drafted to be a key contributor to most fantasy teams following a 2023 season in which he only played 43 games with a .566 OPS. However, it’s easy to remember Story’s tremendous peak in Colorado, where he was a fantasy first round pick about five years ago. Story was still drafted as a starter to just about every fantasy team and he ended up being next to nothing due to that aforementioned dislocated shoulder.

In 2024, Story hit .255 with two home runs and six stolen bases in 26 games. Again, it feels cheap to choose Story for this designation because of an injury that wasn’t his fault, but he did provide the least value of any to his drafters. Triston Casas (NFBC ADP: 92) and Vaughn Grissom (NFBC ADP: 349) were also considered, but neither of them felt like they had the negative return on draft position that Story did.

Fantasy Surprise?

It was a breakout season for Tanner Houck (NFBC ADP: 400), who many would pick to be the surprise of the season for the Red Sox, but I’m going another route.

My fantasy surprise for the Red Sox is 2B/SS David Hamilton, who was drafted in three out of 719 NFBC leagues and ended up being owned in most leagues by the end of the year. Hamilton, 27, slashed .248/.303/.395 with eight home runs in 98 games and ended up being a huge value for stolen bases in fantasy baseball, with 33 of them. In leagues with 12 or more teams, Hamilton was legitimately worthwhile after being completely written off in basically all drafts in the preseason.

Hamilton’s batted ball results weren’t particularly stellar in the 2024 season, so he won’t be guaranteed an everyday role in 2025. I could see him being a speculative late-round draft pick for stolen bases, but will Mayer, Campbell, and Meidroth all pushing for time in the infield in 2025, Hamilton may get buried on the depth chart. Either way, those 33 stolen bases were very valuable to many.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Jarren Duran, OF

The Red Sox team MVP will kick off our player breakdowns. Duran batted leadoff for the Red Sox nearly every game and was a strong table setter, as his .285 batting average this season was strongly backed by his .280 xBA. He hit for a great average in 2023 as well, but what caused a big jump for him statistically was that his quality of contact improved greatly. Duran’s xwOBA climbed from average to the top 20% in baseball between 2023 and 2024, with his bat speed and average exit velocity on batted balls both in the top 25% of the league. He made marked improvements to his swing coming into the 2024 season, and it showed.

What is perhaps holding Duran back from being a fantasy first round pick in 2025 is that his walk and strikeout rates are still no better than average. He slightly increased his walk rate from 6.6% to 7.3% and decreased his strikeout rate from 24.9% to 21.8% over the past two seasons, but even despite this improvement it held him back from being a true superstar. Duran must have been trying to improve his walk rate this season intentionally, as his swing rate of 48.2% was the lowest that it has been in his major league career.

The 2024 season was still just Duran’s second major league season in which he played 100 games and the first that saw him play more than 102, so there is hope for growth. Perhaps next season Duran will improve his walk and strikeout rates even more and make the necessary tweaks to get his barrel rate from above average to elite, which would make him a first round pick candidate in 2026. I feel like Duran in 2025 will be evaluated similarly to how Michael Harris was drafted in fantasy in 2024. Both are great defenders with a lot of hype around their abilities to be elite batting average and stolen base contributors.

Rafael Devers, 3B

Devers, now 28, had another successful year in his age-27 season. Drafted 23rd overall on average in NFBC leagues, Devers has made himself into a hot commodity in fantasy by posting an OPS of .800 or better in four of the last five seasons entering 2024. In 2024, Devers slashed .272/.354/.516 with 28 home runs, 83 RBI, and 87 runs scored in 138 games played. Devers has hit at least 27 home runs in each of the past five full seasons in baseball, cementing himself as one of the safest power hitters for managers to select in their fantasy drafts.

What was significant about Devers’ season? The biggest change that we saw from him was a big increase in his walk rate, going from a slightly above average 9.5% to a very good 11.1%. This might be explained by a change in approach, as Devers swung at a lower percentage of pitches than he had in any other season since his rookie year, at 50.9%. When he did swing, his batted ball metrics were still elite. Devers was in the top 20% in baseball in expected batting average, walk rate, and barrel rate, and top 10% in xwOBA, expected slugging, and average exit velocity.

Devers’ main drawback has been that he is an aggressive hitter, which got worse in 2024. His strikeout rate ballooned from 19.2% in 2023 to 24.5% this season. He whiffed at pitches at a 30.3% rate, among the worst 13% of hitters in that category in the majors. Devers is still a very strong fantasy option because of his thunderous bat and propensity for hard contact, but the whiffs and lack of speed prevent him from being in first round consideration in 2025.

Triston Casas, 1B

Casas, 24, had some helium entering 2024 draft season following a very strong second half in 2023 and strong batted ball results. He was expected to be one of the key contributors for the Red Sox offensively and had no serious competition for playing time at first base. All of this hope made it seriously disappointing when he sustained that aforementioned rib cartilage tear that held him out for the majority of the season.

In 2024, Casas slashed .241/.337/.462 with 13 home runs and a 119 wRC+ in 243 plate appearances. Casas is clearly a very passive hitter, as many outcomes of his plate appearances end in either a strikeout or a walk. Casas’ 31.7% strikeout rate would be among the league’s worst if he had garnered enough at-bats to be a qualified hitter, and his 12.3% walk rate would have been among the league’s best. Casas is great at hitting the ball hard at optimal launch angles when he does make contact, however, as his 13.3% barrel rate this past season would have been among the game’s elite.

Casas didn’t do anything to hurt his draft stock in 2025, but the lack of playing time won’t make him too much more in demand either. I’d imagine that Casas will be drafted just inside the top 100 again as a decent fantasy starter at first base.

Tyler O’Neill, OF

O’Neill landed with a new team for the first time in his career in 2024, with Fenway Park being an intriguing location for his home stadium. We knew that O’Neill oozes raw power, all he needed to do was stay healthy and he could be a potential fantasy breakout candidate. Well, in 2024 we got the healthiest version of O’Neill that we have seen since his career year in 2021 and in just 113 games he provided good season-long production. He missed most of his time with what was described as a leg infection, so that seems like a very fluky injury that shouldn’t follow him into 2025.

This season, O’Neill slashed .241/.336/.511 with 31 home runs, 61 RBI, and 74 runs scored in 473 plate appearances. His 11.2% walk rate was a career-best, but his 33.6% strikeout rate and 34.1% whiff rate were both among the bottom 3% of all qualified major league hitters. O’Neill’s 17.3% barrel rate is in the top 2% in all of baseball and his expected slugging, bat speed, and hard-hit rates are in the top 10%. It’s obvious that O’Neill can still mash when he gets the bat to the ball.

Something to consider going into next year, besides his health, is that his .241 batting average may have actually been a little bit inflated. O’Neill’s expected batting average was just .218 and his BABIP was up to .305, 20 points higher than it was in 2023. I would expect O’Neill to be drafted in the low-to-mid 100s as a starting outfielder for fantasy managers in 2025, depending on where he signs in free agency.

Wilyer Abreu, OF

A former Astros international free agent signing out of Venezuela, Abreu was traded to Boston in 2022 with Enmanuel Valdez as part of the deal sending Christian Vazquez to Houston. It appears the Red Sox made out like bandits in that trade, as Abreu looks like he is going to be a solid piece to add to this emerging young squad. Abreu was a pleasant surprise, considering he wasn’t even on most fantasy managers’ radar entering the season.

In 2024, Abreu slashed .253/.322/.459 with 15 home runs, 59 runs scored, 58 RBI, and eight stolen bases in 447 plate appearances, good for a 114 wRC+. Abreu’s 50.5% hard-hit rate put him in the top 6% of all qualified major leaguers and his bat speed and average exit velocity where both top 15%, meaning that he has the ability to drive the ball like a great power hitter already. Abreu’s 28% strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired, but his 8.9% walk rate is just above average and shows some ability to command the strike zone.

Abreu’s .253 batting average may have been a little bit fluky, as he posted a .326 BABIP with that aforementioned 28% strikeout rate. Abreu’s xBA of .232 this past season indicates that he was the beneficiary of some good fortune in 2024. With how hard he hits the ball and his decent walk rates, however, he could push towards a .250 average if he chooses to make some changes in his approach in 2025.

In addition to his propensity for hard contact, Abreu graded as an outstanding outfield defender this past season. His seven outs above average was in the top 10% in the league and his arm strength of 94.8 mph is in the top 2% of strongest arms among all position players. Abreu should be penciled into an Opening Day starting role for the Red Sox in 2025, and because of this is likely to be drafted in the top-250 or so.

Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/2B/SS

Rafaela, 24, had some hype around him entering the 2024 season. His NFBC ADP of 303 shows that he was valued as a low-end starting outfielder or bench piece. Largely, Rafaela returned on his projections despite some lackluster batted ball results.

Rafaela slashed .246/.274/.390 with 15 home runs, 75 RBI, 70 runs scored, and 19 stolen bases. Boston rotated him between multiple positions to search for a home for the speedy right-hander, but he struggled as a whole. Rafaela showed a propensity for highlight reel plays in the outfield, but Duran, Abreu, and prospect Anthony project the anchor the outfield next year. He is looking like he might need to find a home in the infield to start consistently, where he struggled.

Rafaela can certainly be described as a free swinger. His 46.4% chase rate and 2.8% walk rate were both in the bottom 1% of all qualified major leaguers. His low average exit velocity of 86.6 mph can be evidenced by his uber-aggressive approach and below average bat speed. He is a pull-happy hitter who leveraged his 165-lb. frame well to hit 15 home runs, but it is just hard to see him having any projectable power without an increase in weight.

Rafaela is a very athletic player, but has a lot to work on both offensively and defensively. He is a player that I personally would stay away from next year, with the likelihood being that he is not going to be a starter all season. If he becomes a valuable major leaguer, it will be from his speed and athleticism on defense.

Masataka Yoshida, DH/OF

Yoshida, 31, figured to be a key contributor for the Red Sox in 2024 after a very solid first season in the MLB following years of play in Japan. With an ADP of 179 on NFBC, fantasy managers though that he could be a steady source of batting average and counting stats after he hit .289 with 15 home runs, 72 RBI, 71 runs scored, and eight steals in 2023.

In his second season stateside, Yoshida produced very similarly despite dealing with a thumb injury and a nagging shoulder injury. This past season, Yoshida slashed .280/.349/.415 with ten home runs, 56 RBI, and 45 runs in 108 games, good for a 115 wRC+.

Yoshida’s calling card since arriving to the major leagues has been his low strikeout and whiff rates, both of which were among the top 5% of all qualified players. Yoshida has a good feel for the zone and makes a lot of contact, which helps him to provide value with his batting average. However, Yoshida does not make a lot of hard contact. His average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are all below average, perhaps due to the fact that he does not walk much and swings at pitches that may be more difficult to hit. Even with his .280 batting average this past season, his xBA based on quality of contact was only .260.

Another noteworthy part of Yoshida’s season is that he did not start a single game in the outfield this past season, making him a full-time designated hitter. He will lose his outfield eligibility in most formats, decreasing his draft value.

Connor Wong and Danny Jansen, Catching Tandem

Wong, 28, and Jansen, 29, have both become established options as major league backstops.

Wong had his best season in the major leagues this past year, slashing .280/.333/.425 with 13 home runs, 54 runs, 52 RBI, and eight stolen bases in 126 games, good for a 110 wRC+. An interesting disparity between Wong’s actual and expected stats is that his expected batting average and slugging were both about 50 points lower than his actual results. This is likely due to the fact that Wong’s quality of contact, where he was producing at a below average rate in xwOBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit rate, strikeout rate (23.4%), and walk rate (5.7%). Wong will be a bit of an anomaly in 2025, with a low ceiling but was able to greatly outperform his expected stats.

Jansen was the more well-known catcher entering this year, spending his first seasons in the majors on some successful Blue Jays teams before being sold to the Red Sox at the trade deadline. Between the two teams, Jansen slashed .205/.309/.349 with nine home runs in 328 plate appearances, which amounted to an 89 wRC+. This was Jansen’s worst season since his first full season in 2019, and that may have been attributed to breaking a bone in his wrist in Spring Training. Wrist fractures have caused struggles for many hitters over the years, and getting one at the beginning of the season may have hampered his ability to swing comfortably all season. Jansen’s walk rate did take a huge encouraging jump up from 7.6% in 2023 to 12.2% this season, and his swing percentage of 40.6% was 6% lower than it was in 2023. Jansen will be a free agent this offseason and if he lands with a team that starts him consistently, he could be a decent bargain in fantasy if his wrist feels better and he swings more confidently.

Best of the Rest

David Hamilton and Rob Refsnyder finished fifth and sixth on the Red Sox in WAR for offensive players. You’ve heard about Hamilton, but Refsnyder did an admirable job filling in for injuries as well – he slashed .283/.359/.471, good for a 130 wRC+ in 93 games. Dominic Smith and Romy Gonzalez each appeared in over 80 games as well, both hitting six home runs and positing a 97 wRC+. Young infielders Enmanuel Valdez and Vaughn Grissom both underwhelmed, posting well-below average results and will need to fight off the prospects rising through the high minors of the Red Sox system next year.

 

Pitchers

Tanner Houck, SP

Houck, 28, has been a key arm for the Red Sox in both the bullpen and rotation since he debuted in 2020. After a couple of effective seasons in the bullpen, Boston decided to transition him back into a starting role in 2023, which led to some discouraging results on the surface. Houck posted a 5.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and struck out 99 batters in 106 innings in 2023, but a 4.21 xERA and a 4.07 xFIP showed reason for optimism as he entered 2024 prepared to be a starter again.

In 2024, Houck was drafted at pick 400 on NFBC. With his below average strikeout rate and poor results last season, it was thought that he would be more of a back-end rotation option. It turned out, Houck ended up being the best pitcher on the team. This past season, Houck threw a career-high 178.2 innings with a 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 154 strikeouts, earning his first All-Star nomination. The biggest improvements in Houck’s game that we saw were big improvements to his walk and home run rates. In 2023, Houck walked 8.9% of batters and a 16.1% home run/fly ball ratio. In 2024, the walk rate was cut to 6.5% and the HR/FB% to 8.8%. Houck thrived by issuing less free passes and home runs.

Houck’s calling card is his stellar ground ball rate, as he’s great at making opposing batter’s miss the barrel. His ground ball rate of 55.5% ranked in the top 7% of all qualified pitchers. Houck’s funky 22-degree arm angle allows him to confuse batters with his mix of sweeper, sinker, and splitter, and despite having around average velocity for a starter, he generated great results. The concern for Houck, as far as having a high ceiling in fantasy is his low strikeout rate. Houck’s strikeout rate of 20.7% is in the bottom-third of all qualified pitchers, which  is something that will prevent him from being drafted as a top arm in fantasy.

Interestingly enough, Houck’s xERA in 2024 was barely better than it had been in 2023 at 4.05, with a decrease in xFIP to 3.58. It is reasonable to expect Houck to hover around a 4 ERA next season, probably.

Nick Pivetta, SP

Pivetta, 31, was the highest drafted pitcher on the Red Sox entering 2024, with an ADP of 164. With an elite 31.7% strikeout rate in 2023, there was palpable buzz that he might be able to take a big step forward towards becoming a key contributor this season. In 2024, Pivetta pitched 145.2 innings with a 4.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 172 strikeouts. Pivetta unfortunately also lost a month of his season at the very beginning of the season due to an elbow strain.

Pivetta’s biggest strength, his swing-and-miss stuff, continued in 2024. His 28.9% strikeout rate was still very good, but he also improved his walk rate a great deal to 6.1%. What troubled Pivetta is that perhaps he was around the zone a bit too much. Pivetta surrendered 28 home runs and his 15.1% HR/FB% was the fourth-highest in all of baseball among pitchers who threw at least 140 innings. Home runs are likely what prevented him from reaching his upside of a potential top-25 fantasy pitcher and an All-Star nod.

Pivetta, in many ways, is quite different from Houck. He struck out at least nine batters in eight of his 26 starts and releases the ball at a very vertical 55-degree angle. His ground ball rate is in the bottom 6% of all major leaguers, with his most commonly used pitch being a four-seam fastball. Pivetta’s archetype is much more intriguing for fantasy purposes because he offers us the potential for huge return on investment, while Houck does not possess the same tantalizing ceiling with his lack of strikeouts.

Pivetta is a free agent this offseason and was extended a $21 million qualifying offer by the Red Sox, a surprise to some. As of the timing of this article, it is not known whether Pivetta will accept the qualifying offer to return to Boston, or pursue free agency looking for a multi-year deal. I would have to imagine that many teams are interested in signing a player with his strikeout prowess, so Pivetta could very well turn down that qualifying offer, which would give Boston draft compensation.

Kutter Crawford, SP

Crawford, 28, has become a very steady and reliable mid-rotation arm for the Red Sox over the past couple of years. In 2024, Crawford showed that he could withstand a full MLB season by setting a career-high in innings at 183.2, over 50 more innings that his previous best in 2023. As for his fantasy-relevant numbers, Crawford posted a 4.36 ERA (4.65 FIP), 1.12 WHIP, 175 strikeouts, and nine wins.

Crawford’s biggest strength is getting opposing batters to offer on pitches outside of the zone. His 32.8% chase rate is among the top 12% of all major leaguers, clearly his five pitch repertoire from an odd arm angle can be confusing to hitters. Crawford also does a decent job at limiting hard-hit balls and walks, while striking out batters at an average rate.

The uptick in workload may have caused Crawford some fatigue during the season, as his velocity was down about 1 mph from 2023 with an increase in hard contact and a decrease in strikeout rate. Crawford’s drop in K-BB% from 18.8% to 16.3% is worrisome because it indicates an uptick on balls being put in play against the righty.

For fantasy purposes, Crawford is likely to be a spot starter in shallow leagues and drafted as pitching depth in deeper leagues. Unless he can start missing more bats in 2025, it feels irresponsible to expect Crawford to be a matchup-proof pitcher.

Brayan Bello, SP

Bello, 25, has also established himself as a reliable starter for Boston with some decent seasons from 2023-24. This past season, Bello threw 162.1 innings with a 4.49 ERA (4.19 FIP), 1.36 WHIP, 153 strikeouts, and 14 wins.

Bello’s calling card, like Houck, is his high ground ball rate. Bello relies heavily on his sinker and changeup instead of his fastball, aiming to get batters to beat the ball into the ground. His maximum velocity of 95.7 mph is above average, but his average exit velocity results are still pretty average and so are his whiff rates.

Unfortunately for Bello, that is just about the only thing that he has consistently been able to do well in his major league career. His 21.8% strikeout rate is below average and pairing that with a subpar walk rate (9.1%) gives him a paltry 12.7% K-BB%. He actually did well to increase his strikeout rate by about 2% from 2023, but the walk rate followed right behind it to give him quite similar results.

Throughout his whole career, Bello has struggled with allowing baserunners. Since he allows so many baserunners, gets strikeouts at a below-average rate, and is a changeup-heavy pitcher, his ceiling seems pretty limited. Bello will be a depth addition in deeper leagues.

Kenley Jansen, RP

Jansen, now 37, enjoyed another successful season as the full-time closer for the Red Sox. In his age-36 season, Jansen threw 54.2 innings with a 3.29 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 62 strikeouts, and 27 saves.

Jansen’s 28.4% strikeout rate is still well above average among major league pitching, as he is able to use his high 62-degree arm angle and sharp cutter to make opposing batters miss. At 6’5″, Jansen is a big guy who uses his long levers to get a good extension and allow his cutter play as if it were slightly faster.

What has become a concern for Jansen is that he is giving up hard-hit balls at a higher rate than he ever has before. Even though he gave up less home runs than last year, his hard-hit rate (37%) and barrel rate (11.1%) are the highest marks of his career. Jansen’s average exit velocity against is also in the bottom 11% of major leaguers, at 90.4 mph.

Jansen will be a free agent this offseason and it is not known whether major league teams value him enough to give him the keys to a full-time closer role. Regardless of where Jansen ends up, he will at least be in the mix for holds and some saves given his wealth of experience as a closer throughout his career. His draft value entirely depends on his landing spot in free agency.

Best of the Rest

As mentioned at the beginning of this piece, Garrett Whitlock was expected to be the fifth starter in this rotation but missed almost the entire season due to an internal brace procedure. The Red Sox hope to have him back fully in 2025. Their primary fifth starter ended up being Cooper Criswell, who had a 4.08 ERA in 99.1 innings, but only 73 strikeouts. Criswell is unlikely to be considered anything other than depth in 2025. The Red Sox did add righty Quinn Priester from the Pirates in a mid-season trade, who will likely be asked to contribute in 2025. Between ten starts with Pittsburgh and one with Boston, Priester registered a 4.71 ERA in 49.2 innings pitched. Despite a 14.9% strikeout rate in the majors, he did strike out batters at a 26% rate in Triple-A. Richard Fitts was acquired in a preseason trade with the Yankees and he posted a 1.74 ERA in four starts at the end of the season. Perhaps, he may get a chance to contribute in 2025 as well.