It only takes a brief detour into the past to understand the value of free agency, as it was the cadre of RBs that moved onto better and brighter things that defined this past fantasy season.  Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs all had career seasons as they fled an armada of sinking ships.  It’s generally pretty tough to predict how a new team will affect a fantasy star, but it shouldn’t have taken a rocket scientist to predict going from terrible teams with no infrastructure or o-line to perennial playoff teams would have a booming effect on fantasy production.  I always say we continue to learn every season and it is with that I turn my eye to this summer’s crop of free agents and make a guess whether they will see their production boom or bust.  We just Aaron Jones resign with MIN and Hollywood Brown resign with KC.  Here is a list of the best remaining free agents.

Tee Higgins – I’ve mentioned this so many times, it feels redundant, but Higgins was third in FPPG (.5 PPR) with Ja’Marr Chase being first as the Bengals were one of the most potent offenses in the league.  Higgins and Chase are both FA and it’s unlikely that both get resigned to CIN as they are both going to command near record-break numbers.  Chase will be the highest paid WR in history and Higgins might not be that far behind him.  In reality, they are in different tiers, but Higgins might be a WR1 masquerading as WR2, but until they go their separate ways we will never know.  The age-old question is whether Higgins is an alpha in his own right or whether he benefits playing next Chase and getting the second-best corner while also having Joe Burrow throwing him the ball.  This Bengals is perfect situation for Higgins, but you can’t blame him for chasing the bag.  His core problem is his health as he’s played 12 games in b2b seasons.  On the right team, he could see his fantasy stock go up, but the increase in volume will surely be offset by the decrease in QB play.  Most likely if he leaves, he’s not going to finish in the top-five in FPPG next season.

Amari Cooper –  I bought in hard when he got traded to the Bills mid-season.  Sometimes we are all victims of simplicity.  He was going from the worst QB situation in the league to potentially the best and also to a team without a true WR1.  It seemed so perfect on paper, it should have been a red flag.  Cooper was banged up most of the season and clearly wasn’t 100% post-trade, but he’s 31 and he might have just crossed the invisible Rubicon that WRs can’t come back from.  If BUF brought him back, there could be some value as he’s still with Josh Allen, but almost anywhere else is a downgrade and Cooper is going to be a hard-pass next season.

Sam Darnold – Darnold went from rags to riches last season and it might have been a perfect storm that can’t be replicated.  Playing with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will make anyone look invincible and Darnold legitimately was great for 90% of the season.  If he gets a huge salary bump, that will eat into the quality of the roster support for which Darnold needs to succeed.  It’s a little chick or the egg, but if Darnold gets franchised for 40 odd million, that’s going to make him a liability, not an asset.  Darnold proved he can spearhead an explosive fantasy offense and if he went to the right team, he’s a low-end QB1 that could also make his receiving weapons level up.  Darnold isn’t great, but when you look around the league, there are handful of teams where not great would be treated as a revelation.

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