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October 13, 2024, 8:54 pm
Hello everybody I have been studying basketball all summer and fall so maybe we should put that information to good use, right? I will put my preferred plays at the bottom for WagerPass subscribers. Enjoy!
*Odds found at Bovada (B) or MyBookie (MB)
Atlanta Hawks, Over 36.5 (-106, MB)
This team just got realigned in the best imaginable way around Trae Young. Virtually every other player around him is complementary and there are so many built-in play types for Young to go to at the rim with a crew of leapers headlined by Jalen Johnson. Dyson Daniels helping to shore up the defense might bring things to a tip over point and along with some of the unsung depth they are well-positioned to surprise the season.
Boston Celtics, Over 58.5 (-105, B)
There isn’t much margin here and the Eastern Conference is catching up but this team is better than it was last season with or without Kristaps Porzingis. In particular, a lot of the depth that they have is about to get noticed.
Brooklyn Nets, Under 19.5 (-105, MB)
Cooper Flagg and this draft class are going to create a race to the bottom and Brooklyn is already set up for that before injuries, attrition and tanking start setting in.
Charlotte Hornets, Over 29.5 (-125, B)
It’s an uncomfortable bet because the organization is new at best at the top and the track record is terrible. LaMelo Ball still plays like Brett Favre. But there are quality players and smart acquisitions like Josh Green to help create defensive competitiveness, and it may come down to Cody Martin’s ability to stay healthy believe it or not. This definitely won’t be making my list of top plays.
Chicago Bulls, Under 28.5 (-125, B)
Every piece of information is pushing this Chicago Bulls bet under but it’s going to hinge on whether they can start disintegrating sooner rather than later.
Cleveland Cavaliers, Over 48.5 (-116, MB)
With the Donovan Mitchell situation finally put to rest this team will have another year of improvement under their belts along with some sneaky depth to help push this up and over.
Dallas Mavericks, Over 49.5 (-120, B)
It doesn’t appear the post trade reality of the Dallas Mavericks, including a Finals appearance, hit the collective radar. The center tandem plus PJ Washington is custom built for a pair of big guns hitting on all cylinders.
Denver Nuggets, Under 51.5 (-116, MB)
Michael Malone is a players coach and he doesn’t sugarcoat anything or play any games on the political side. Now, the murmurs from the business side are starting to surface and the players will pull together for him but sometimes the pressure gets to be too great and that’s before the depth situation gets tested. I like their young players but potential for drama and attrition have me under here.
Detroit Pistons, Over 24.5 (-140, B)
This team needs to win some games for organizational purposes and I don’t think they will be holding back. They added veterans that will keep the team from losing games they are supposed to win and some of the recent reputation has this number a bit low.
Golden State Warriors, Over 43.5 (-111, MB)
Give it up to the Warriors for retooling this squad cheaply and on the fly. All of the parts are complementary and the two stars don’t have too many years on the career left for punting to be the initial consideration.
Houston Rockets, Over 43.5 (-116, MB)
There is so much talent in Houston and yet defensive concerns surrounding their offensive wunderkind center should be the only reason they don’t rocket past their number.
Indiana Pacers, Over 46.5 (-111, MB)
With another year under their belt and Pascal Siakam ready for his first full season as a stabilizing force the number feels high but achievable.
Los Angeles Clippers, Under 40.5 (-140, B)
With no pick to tank for this is an uncomfortable bet but it hits a few different ways if they experience any adversity at all on the injury front and you don’t need me to tell you who their top player is.
Los Angeles Lakers, Under 43.5 (-116, MB)
This is a really tough bet but it’s the right play given the strength of the Western Conference. If the Lakers have another banner season healthwise they can get up and over this number but not by much and the odds are against them.
Memphis Grizzlies, 47.5 – NO BET
I don’t typically pass on bets for this article so you guys get an angle on every play but 47.5 is exactly what I think the number should be. They have a lot of quality depth even with the early injury stuff going on and we have yet to see what Marcus Smart can do to the dog factor for this team.
Miami Heat, Over 44.5 (-106, MB)
Jimmy Butler is motivated and they have enough quality players to be a winning basketball squad and given the quality of their players toward the top of the rotation they profile like a 46 or 47 win team as long as major injuries don’t strike.
Milwaukee Bucks, Under 50.5 (-115, B)
It wasn’t a terrible off-season – good, even – but if anything starts going wrong at all the question will be whether the big dogs will be heading for the exits. Doc Rivers as steward of all of that could similarly be a steadying force but likewise it could also slip through the cracks for him and accelerate the down cycle.
Minnesota Timberwolves, Under 52.5 (-115, B)
Lots of public attention with Anthony Edwards and the trade, but Julius Randle makes this a take turns offense and I am as big of a fan of Donte DiVincenzo as anybody but the trade puts a ton of pressure on Rudy Gobert to not make the take turns portion of the offense prohibitive with him as a screen setter.
New Orleans Pelicans, Under 46.5 (-125, B)
Not only are they overly valued on the Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram side but they also have this major transition to figure out and a track record of sour front office dealings. I love a lot of their players but I don’t love them 46.5 wins level.
New York Knicks, Under 52.5 (+133, MB)
Talk about ripping the heart out of a team, the fans and this brand-new lifelong New York Knicks fan over here. Karl-Anthony Towns fits on paper but he does not fit the heart and soul of a winning basketball squad – not at this level.
Oklahoma City Thunder, Over 56.5 (-116, MB)
This should be an historic defense with plenty of offense to boot.
Orlando Magic, Over 47.5 (-119, MB)
The margins are slim but this is a better basketball team than last season and the opposition will be gunning for them a little bit but not a lot. Still a tiny bit underrated.
Philadelphia Sixers, Over 51.5 (-125, MB)
Even if Joel Embiid misses significant time this is a very good basketball squad with a lot of winning players added to it. The key for them hitting this number will be getting enough wins while Embiid is on the floor and if that happens the rest should work itself out, even if he only plays half of their ballgames.
Phoenix Suns, Over 46.5 (-125, MB)
Adding Tyus Jones and Mason Plumlee helps stabilize and support the top-heavy arrangement and rookie Ryan Dunn gives them a fun defender for spot matchups. Expect them to have a chip on their shoulder this season.
Portland Trail Blazers, Under 22.5 (-121, MB)
Among the leaders in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. They might be more competitive than folks believe but when push comes to shove tanking and attrition will win the day.
Sacramento Kings, Over 46.5 (-101, MB)
There is a ton of talent on the floor and while the defensive equation with Domantas Sabonis isn’t going away in the playoffs that’s not a situation were worrying about here.
San Antonio Spurs, Over 36.5 (-115, B)
So many of their depth pieces got great experience and are developing very nicely and that’s before you add Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes as stabilizers to the phenomena known as Victor Wembanyama.
Toronto Raptors, Under 30.5 (-125, MB)
They are probably too good to tank but they are saying the quiet part out loud already in Toronto and because of the play-in they get pretty good odds being the fifth or sixth worst squad from a lottery standpoint.
Utah Jazz, Under 29.5 (-121, MB)
A top five tanking squad heading into this season and a lot of their young players aren’t ready to win games en masse just yet.
Washington Wizards, Under 20.5 (-125, B)
I’m not sure they are ready to win this many games before the tanking starts setting in and it’s definitely on the way.
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