Editor’s Note: Last Season Aaron finished 16-13 overall, 10-9 on premium win totals and all premium futures ran a whopping +47.1 units thanks to Mike Brown. The season before he ran 18–12 on the year picking all 30 teams and then 9-4 on the subscriber only plays for a tidy profit of nine units. Add to that 100 units and 60 units apiece in each postseason … it’s a good time to have a WagerPass!

This time of year is always such a grind so finding time to sit down and write up these plays is the big challenge. I’m going to keep the analysis a lot more quick than I normally would not just because Thoracic Outlet Syndrome still mandates that, but also just so I can simply get these out for you guys.

I’m going to make plays for all 30 teams here … For what it’s worth I thought Vegas did a really good job of picking the numbers compared to most years and I see a number of coin flips, so there is a bit more gambling than usual (there are seven of these on the board).

And then as we are unveiling our new toys for premium subscribers it has put projections on the front burner for me and I’m really leaning into the season-long player props. It’s kind of stupid that I haven’t done this sooner but because we are now using B150 inspired projections also anchored by a name you’re going to get to know here real quick, Andre Lemos, there’s no reason not to crush books with this stuff.

So for WagerPass subscribers I will post Subscriber Only Plays including the best win totals plays and then whatever NBA Champ plays, Conference Championship plays, Division plays, MVP plays, ROY/DPOY/6MOY/COY plays make the cut, etc. So many plays so little time!

Check out all of our premium options here.

Let’s gooooooo!

*Editor’s Note: if you have a SportsEthos membership or bundle that does not include the WagerPass and you would like to upgrade click the button below

ATLANTA HAWKS OVER 42.5

Quin Snyder getting the end of last season to get his feet wet, Trae Young getting humbled, Onyeka Okongwu getting more minutes, Bogdan Bogdanovic at peak health and a pair of young players in Jalen Johnson and A.J. Griffin… This team is better than they were last year any number of ways and the early vibe is very professional and focused.

BOSTON CELTICS OVER 55.5

They’re going to be very, very good. The mixture of professionals and the seasoning of late playoff losses sprinkled so liberally upon this group… This has the look of piranhas all pointed in the same direction. With the pressure on well past the end of the regular season, I’ve heard people talking like they have a shot at the 73 wins. I would need to see a Steph-like player to go that far.

BROOKLYN NETS OVER 37.5

Even though people are past talking about how underrated Mikal Bridges is and are now into talking about how good he is, they still have no idea how good he is now to get to see him take the Kawhi-like leap I predicted however many years ago (minus the muscles). Nicolas Claxton looks great, Ben Simmons is his best version for whatever that is worth, Cam Johnson is really good, it appears Brooklyn finally figured out that Spencer Dinwiddie shouldn’t be running iso all game long. Not going to say they have high-end depth but at least the names range from interesting to encouraging.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS UNDER 31.5

it’s not that they don’t have talent because they do. The organization just underwent a massive transition at the top and nothing about the team screams stability right now. Steve Clifford isn’t walking around untouchable and that always makes for an easy scapegoat but even if you don’t assign much value to that, and even if you start to envision the best case scenario for the squad, they’re still going to be challenged nightly on talent and when character is a question, the odds start tipping and things start snowballing.

CHICAGO BULLS UNDER 37.5

Whether it is Zach LaVine’s knee or DeMar DeRozan’s likely exit, the declines of most of the high-end talent, or the general blasé surrounding the squad, you’re certainly not betting the over.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS UNDER 50.5

I am as high on Donovan Mitchell as the next person and Darius Garland and Evan Mobley can compete with almost anybody. The problem here is Jarrett Allen passing through that razor thin space defensive bigs deal with going from athletically imposing to eminently beatable. The league is just too fast. I’m not sold on their depth. And if there’s anything about Mitchell wishing he was in a big market that matters or is true, then you start to get a recipe for frustration. Setting that aside I think they’re wasting value with Allen that they need to get this number

DALLAS MAVERICKS UNDER 44.5

There’s trouble written all over this thing in Dallas but Luka might have gotten the memo and looks to be in the best shape I’ve seen him maybe ever. He’s the only thing that has me tapping the brakes here.

DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 50.5

Nikola Jokic and Michael Malone don’t have too much chill to their games. I’m not sure how much it matters but it’s not like any of them have had the appropriate respect put on their names. The loss of Bruce Brown is a big deal and they will definitely throttle back if needed for the playoffs, but this is a low number for a team easily capable of running away from the pack in the West.

DETROIT PISTONS OVER 28.5

Cade Cunningham is really good and he’s gotta get healthy sometime. Insert another somewhat old school coach in Monty Williams who has plenty of job security and respect around the league, and you have to at least like the coaching situation in relation to what is generally out there. Jalen Duren is going to make a name for himself this year. He’s a beast. There are way more quality players on this squad than the reputation suggests.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS OVER 48.5

These guys know that Father Time is in the rearview mirror and with no Jordan Poole to piss them off and take the blame, and Draymond probably settled down, and Klay probably fired up, and Chris Paul playing for his legacy, not to mention some nice young players turning the corner, particularly on the road this feels like a regression waiting to happen.

HOUSTON ROCKETS UNDER 31.5

The Kevin Porter situation was easily addition by subtraction and even that is not enough here, even with Ime Udoka having good potential to orchestrate a turnaround. The West is so deep and that’s going to put pressure on all of the things that Houston has working against them, including the Dillon Brooks Experience, the catch 22 of Alperen Sengun’s volume offense vs. his volume defense and still too many chuckers.

INDIANA PACERS OVER 37.5

This is the first year that I’ve watched Tyrese Haliburton and thought hey this guy is kind of athletic. That’s bad news for the rest the league. Adding Bruce Brown is perfect for a bet like this. They may even balance out the roster by moving Buddy Hield. There is a lot of young talent on this team that should theoretically develop if Rick Carlisle is half the coach suggested by his name value.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS OVER 46.5

For what it’s worth I think a James Harden acquisition is more or less neutral if not detrimental to the cause in terms of this number. I just think these guys are tired of getting poster treatment for the rest era and they also know that it’s now or never for this iteration. They’re not getting any healthier anytime soon.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS OVER 47.5

Lebron and AD are not good enough to have bad teammates who don’t get it and not have it leave a mark. The emergence of Austin Reaves and arrival of Gabe Vincent, in addition to a number of smaller signings that made good sense, gives them enough firepower to win a lot of games and as long as the milk isn’t sour there should be more than enough motivation to go around.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES UNDER 45.5

It’s great that Dillon Brooks is gone in terms of culture but there is a lot of blame to go around for that from players to coach and management. Ja Morant is expected to be good no matter what and anything above and beyond that which might represent him getting serious has to be viewed as a bonus. I wasn’t viewing Steven Adams as irreplaceable so it’s only a small downgrade there and if anything it gets Santi Aldama on the floor more. Marcus Smart helps a lot but this is the West and as much as I like obscure depth I’m not sure it’s good enough for .500 ball.

MIAMI HEAT UNDER 45.5

I usually love the Heat in the playoffs and make a bunch of money on them. As far as this wins total bet goes they just have too many holes with Gabe Vincent leaving and unless you told me that Kyle Lowry lost 30 pounds I’m not even listening about an over here. I do think they are competitive enough to make this interesting because Caleb Martin and even somebody like Duncan Robinson is ready to take a step forward. It’s a good franchise that just happened to not get Damian Lillard this summer.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS OVER 54.5

Will these guys play it safe? Yes, but they have a lot of reasons to push at least 80% of the way during the regular season and with the window for Giannis and Damian Lillard being right now seeding will probably be on their minds. I’m evaluating them as if Khris Middleton is sort of middle-of-the-road at best. Overall, I like their balance better with Lillard and the rest of the crew has history and experience.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES UNDER 44.5

The Rudy Gobert trade will go down as one of the worst trades of all time. The West is extremely competitive and I like a lot of the talent on this team but having to accommodate Gobert sets off a chain reaction of events making this number close but not enough to play the over.

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS UNDER 44.5

The Zion leadership question hangs over everything and not far behind that is the Brandon Ingram leadership question and perhaps the most pressing leadership question exists at the ownership and management levels. I was very high on this team last year and then they quite literally fell apart because of all of the aforementioned. CJ McCollum has struggled at the foul line lately and I wonder if the decline is here. They’re good enough to win more games but losses are going to hit them harder than they do most squads.

NEW YORK KNICKS UNDER 44.5

I think this number is pretty good and overall I just wonder how much longer the Tom Thibodeau/Julius Randle smorgasbord can hold up before it tips over.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER OVER 43.5

There is no OKC discount this year as win totals bettors aren’t fixated on the question of how good Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is but rather they know he is really good and that there are a bunch of fun players there. I’d be a little bit more bullish here if the league wasn’t going to gear up for them a lot more now.

ORLANDO MAGIC OVER 36.5

It’s a 10 game jump for Orlando over last season on the number and it all just sort of fits. They are looking at big gains across the floor from their young players and in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner those dudes are gunning for the All-Star team. Markelle Fultz is going to be very competitive this season against good players. A lot of interesting names for depth.

PHILADELPHIA SIXERS OVER 47.5

I don’t really think they lose much in the wins column without James Harden unless depth becomes an issue without him and nevertheless we need to see what comes back in any deal. If anything, this propels things the other direction. With a new coach with experience and a team that is now entirely without equivocation in every respect both good and bad Joel Embiid’s team, they have the supporting cast to pull it off.

PHOENIX SUNS OVER 51.5

The kicker for this team is that Drew Eubanks is good and will provide the big three a very complementary dirty work player with athleticism for both sides of the floor. Don’t be surprised if Jusuf Nurkic gets the old you should score buckets against the second unit speech. These guys figuring it out and playing their worst is still going to be better than most of the league and their depth is good, as well.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS UNDER 28.5

It’s tempting to write Portland off but their five best players on a given night will be competitive against the other team’s five best players. It’s after that and what ends up happening with the end of the season that makes this number hard to climb.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS OVER 28.5

This was a coin flip for me because the end of the season is in question and it’s definitely a play it safe year for Victor Wembanyama. These guys are definitely young but they have quite a bit of playing time together after last season and a definitive improvement on the way from several key players like Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Tre Jones, and entering prime play out of Zach Collins and Keldon Johnson… oh and that Wemby guy … They have the talent to do it but it’s a moving target.

SACRAMENTO KINGS OVER 44.5

There are a lot of analysts out there whose trendy pick for the one seed, perhaps with several caveats, is these Sacramento Kings. Keegan Murray looks amazing and that alone might do it here for this play. There is more than enough talent to easily go over this number, but in a tough West two phenomena will keep this number close… Teams playing them generally a whole lot tougher because of the buzz and two, the defense due to the Domantas Sabonis issue will continue to apply pressure in the wrong direction. Also, they dodged the injury bug really well last season and that happening two years in a row starts to get fortunate, less likely, etc. Kevin Huerter is either in some sort of decline or dealing with something and it’s early so you tend to let that stuff go, but it is interesting that Sacramento fortified so to speak at his position. Still, the depth is easily within the top 10 of the league and the question is how high they rank from there.

TORONTO RAPTORS UNDER 36.5

This has trouble written all over it whether it’s players or management seemingly with at least one toe if not more out the door. The argument against this play is that they might end up doing one move that works as addition by subtraction and stay competitive against bad teams, with enough punch to reach up and take advantage of some teams not getting up for them. That’s some twists and turns compared to questions of whether they have the talent to win while they are simultaneously being held back by their serious lack of floor balance. And also if they start getting 2 feet out the door then the bottom falls out.

UTAH JAZZ OVER 35.5

Walker Kessler is really good already and Lauri Markannen is already good enough to be a number one option on offense and working his way up the ladder to being a number one option on a good team. John Collins has to be better than he was in Atlanta. Collin Sexton has looked good in the preseason. While they lack bankable depth there is a decent mix of youth with upside and veterans not yet in significant decline. Teams aren’t going to gear up for them.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS UNDER 24.5

I do wonder if Jordan Poole is getting so much of the LOL Jordan Poole feedback loop that he becomes aware and stops being that guy. That stuff can become cancerous on a bad team and that’s really the headline here. They are paper thin with injury prone players in the frontcourt and a smattering of guys who probably already have a sense that they might not be around after the deadline.

We have 67 units on the win totals and 90 units on the miscellaneous plays and what you want to do here is simply decide how much you would like to get tied up in the futures market, divide that by 157 units and then determine the size of your place by multiplying that number by whatever you see here below. I’m comfortable just calling these units for the sake of my own tracking.

3 UNITS

BOSTON CELTICS OVER 55.5
CHICAGO BULLS UNDER 37.5
DETROIT PISTONS OVER 28.5
ORLANDO MAGIC OVER 36.5
PHOENIX SUNS OVER 51.5
TORONTO RAPTORS UNDER 36.5
UTAH JAZZ OVER 35.5
WASHINGTON WIZARDS UNDER 24.5

4 UNITS

CHARLOTTE HORNETS UNDER 31.5
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS UNDER 50.5
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS OVER 48.5
HOUSTON ROCKETS UNDER 31.5
INDIANA PACERS OVER 37.5
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS UNDER 44.5
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS UNDER 28.5

5 UNITS

ATLANTA HAWKS OVER 42.5
BROOKLYN NETS OVER 37.5
SACRAMENTO KINGS OVER 44.5

MISC FUTURES (90 UNITS)

Let’s put all of these bets into one bucket and consider these units to be uniform so we can figure out how we did at the end of the year.

DIVISION CHAMPS

ATLANTA HAWKS +208 * 1 unit
ATL 1 / MIA 2 +320 * 1 unit

COACH OF THE YEAR

WILL HARDY COY +3000 * 2 units

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR (9 units)

JAREN JACKSON +430 * 5 units
HERB JONES +4000 * 1 unit
JADEN MCDANIELS +5200 * 1 unit
DERRICK WHITE +7500 * 2 units

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR (6 units)

MALIK MONK 6MOY +1000 * 3 units
DERRICK WHITE 6MOY +1475 * 3 units

PLAYER PROPS (71 units)

LUKA -31.4 PPG -110 * 2 units
STEPH -28.5 PPG -110 * 2 units
SGA +30.9 PPG -110 * 2 units
LUKA -8.7 RPG -110 * 3 units
RUDY -11.7 RPG -110 * 5 units
KYRIE -26.7 PPG -110 * 5 units
NIKOLA VUCEVIC -10.9 RPG -110 * 2 units
ANT EDWARDS +26.0 PPG * 3 units
LUKA -8.2 APG -110 * 4 units
ANT DAVIS -25.5 -110 * 4 units
LBJ -6.7 APG -110 * 5 units
JULIUS -24.3 PPG -110 * 4 units
MATISSE MOST STEALS PER GAME +2000 * 5 units
HERB MOST STEALS PER GAME + 3800 * 3 units
MELTON MOST STEALS PER GAME + 2800 * 2 units
STEPH 3PM/GM -182 * 10 units
KLAY 3PM/GM +1100 * 2 units