Are these the best playoffs ever in EuroLeague?

The 7th and 8th seeds were in the Final Four just one season ago. Olympiacos carried its regular-season dominance and is still chasing a title that has eluded them for 13 years. One of the most exciting teams in the competition was playing in the EuroCup just last year, featuring the Coach of the Year and the Rising Star. A master vs apprentice clash.

These playoffs have it all, and we are here to break it down.

 

Olympiacos vs AS Monaco

The 1-8 matchup has traditionally been the most unbalanced, with the 8th seed never reaching the Final Four in the new format. This Monaco team is not a typical 8th seed. They reached the final last year and kept most of the same core. They lack depth, but Olympiacos will need to be at its best to return to the Final Four.

Olympiacos runs one of the most polished offensive systems in basketball. Monaco counters with a high-level defense, with strong and switchable defenders at every position. If Monaco can force Olympiacos into 1-on-1 play, that could shift things, but that is a big if.

Monaco leans heavily on the pick-and-roll. Their guards are effective in those situations and can break down coverages. Olympiacos’ point-of-attack defense will be key throughout the series. Thomas Walkup and Tyson Ward should have major roles, especially with Milutinov on the floor, given his limitations in space.

Rebounding is another area to watch. Monaco has struggled on the defensive glass all season, ranking 18th in DREB% at 66.3%. They now face the 2nd-best offensive rebounding team at 36.5% OREB. In a series that projects to be close, extra possessions could push Olympiacos toward the Final Four.

Late-game guard play is another question. Monaco has proven options, with Mike James delivering in clutch moments and Elie Okobo also stepping up. Can Olympiacos’ guards match that production? It is a key point to follow.

Olympiacos was the best team in the regular season and should be favored. Still, Monaco beat them twice and enters with momentum. The question is whether an 8th seed can reach the Final Four.

 

Valencia vs Panathinaikos

Valencia was the 2nd-best team in the regular season and was “rewarded” with a matchup against Panathinaikos, one of the deepest and most talented teams in the competition. While Valencia might feel unlucky, this is a great series for basketball fans.

Valencia won both regular-season meetings, but that carries limited weight here, especially with Panathinaikos having more experience at this stage.

Valencia is not expected to change much. They will play fast, go 12-deep, and take a high volume of threes. Defensively, they will continue to pressure the ball. The key question is how their pick-and-roll defense holds up. It was strong in the regular season, but in a series setting, showing the same coverages repeatedly can be tested. Panathinaikos has three ball-handlers in TJ Shorts, Kendrick Nunn, and Kostas Sloukas who are all effective in pick-and-roll. If they find rhythm, they will be difficult to contain.

Panathinaikos has been inconsistent throughout the season, including with rotations. Anything short of their best could be costly. They have also struggled on the defensive glass, ranking 13th in DREB%. That showed in the regular-season matchups, where Valencia had 13 and 14 offensive rebounds, while Panathinaikos finished with 26 and 19 defensive rebounds. Controlling the defensive glass should be a priority.

Three-point shooting is another factor. Valencia attempts more, 31.8 per game compared to 23.9, and shoots at a higher percentage, 36.7% to 35.2%.

Valencia will look to turn Roig Arena into a fortress, while Panathinaikos will rely on the OAKA crowd to push them. The question is which side comes out on top.

 

Real Madrid vs Hapoel

Real Madrid and Hapoel finished the regular season separated by one game. That small margin carries weight. Real Madrid went 18-1 at home and 6-13 away, so home-court advantage could be decisive.

This projects as a half-court series. Both teams are comfortable playing in those settings, though neither will pass on transition chances.

Mario Hezonja was the X-factor in both regular-season meetings, which Real Madrid won. He averaged 17 points and 8 rebounds, creating mismatches in multiple ways. He used his size in the post, came off screens to shoot, and handled in pick-and-roll. Scariolo should continue to lean on that versatility. Hapoel and Coach Itoudis will need a plan to limit his impact.

Hapoel is strong in pick-and-roll and should feature it heavily, especially when Walter Tavares is on the floor. Forcing him to defend in space is a clear target. Their trio of bigs, Johnathan Motley, Tai Odiase, and Dan Oturu, offers different skill sets that can be used in those situations.

Real Madrid was a first-half team for much of the season and struggled late. Their offense drops in the fourth quarter, with a 111.7 ORTG compared to a 121.1 season average. Hapoel, on the other hand, has been effective in clutch situations and in fourth quarters. In a series expected to be close, late-game execution will matter.

This sets up as a compelling series, with the potential for a Final Four debut for Hapoel or another step for Real Madrid.

 

Fenerbahçe vs Zalgiris

The final Playoffs series puts Fenerbahçe, who spent much of the season in 1st place before a rough finish, against Zalgiris, one of the biggest surprises of the competition. Zalgiris also won both regular-season meetings between the two.

Fenerbahçe struggled offensively all season, finishing with the 15th-best ORTG in the competition, the worst among Playoff teams by a wide margin: FBB 113.6 ORTG; VAL 119.2. Their identity has been built on defense: PnR switches, identifying weak points, and physicality off the ball. That carried them to the best regular-season defense in EuroLeague, with a DRTG nearly three points better than the next best defense.

But one area that has challenged Fenerbahçe’s defense is elite guard creation against switches. That is exactly what Zalgiris brings. Their trio of guards, Maodo Lo, Nigel Williams-Goss, and Sylvain Francisco, can operate in pick-and-roll at a high level and are effective in isolation. At times during the season, we saw coach Saras move away from switching. That will be a key decision point again here.

The coaching matchup adds another layer. Masiulis was Jasikevicius’ assistant until the start of this season, making this a Master vs Apprentice clash. Both Lithuanian coaches are elite tacticians with strong sets. With two top defenses in the series, any easy basket created from the playbook could swing games.

Fenerbahçe enters as defending champions. Masiulis aims to guide Zalgiris to the Final Four like his mentor, but only one path continues.

 

This article was written by the European Hoops team: Tiago Cordeiro, João Caeiro and André Lemos. Make sure you give us a follow on Twitter at @EthosEuroleague!