Valencia vs Panathinaikos

Valencia and Panathinaikos delivered one of the best Playoff series in recent memory, and Game 5 matched the level.

Valencia stayed committed to the adjustments made heading into Greece. The doubles on Kendrick Nunn, especially in late-clock situations, continued to disrupt his rhythm, and the box score reflected it. The former EuroLeague MVP finished with nine points and six turnovers in a difficult outing.

Coach Pedro Martinez’s adjustments also erased TJ Shorts’ impact. The American guard played under six minutes, and his stretch on the floor was so ineffective that coach Ataman said Panathinaikos was “playing 4 on 5” with him out there, a reflection that also points back to preparation.

But Valencia’s control of the game extended well beyond those adjustments. Neal Sako was critical in PnR coverage, protecting the paint and cleaning the glass. Overall, Valencia’s team defense was outstanding, allowing only 23 points in the first half and posting the 2nd-best defensive rating of the season. A clear save-your-best-for-last performance from the Taronja.

Offensively, Jean Montero stood out again, even in his lowest-scoring game of the series. Brancou Badio exploded for 20 points, tying a career high, and the timing of his shots mattered as much as the total, repeatedly stopping any momentum Panathinaikos tried to build.

Valencia was the better team over the course of the season, and while the Greek side may have held the talent edge, the collective strength of Valencia carried the series and secured the club’s first Final Four appearance.

Now the question becomes whether the dream continues.

 

Final Four Preview

The road ends here. OAKA in Athens, the place every team wanted to reach to close the season. Only four teams made it, and every one of them earned it.

Olympiacos, Valencia, Real Madrid, and Fenerbahçe showed across the 38-game regular season that they were the top four teams in the competition. When the moment of truth arrived, the Playoffs, each one stamped its ticket to the final stage of the season.

Now they are here, and every team is chasing the same goal: becoming King of Europe. Only one will get there.

 

Olympiacos vs Fenerbahçe

The first semi-final puts Olympiacos and Fenerbahçe head-to-head, the best offense in the competition against the best defense.

Olympiacos’ offensive system was outstanding all season. Their ball and player movement consistently stood out, and leading the league in AST% reflects that. On the other side, Fenerbahçe was the best defensive team in the competition, combining versatility with elite scheming to take away opponents’ strengths. That clash will be central in this matchup.

Fenerbahçe has elite defensive size and versatility from 1 through 5, allowing them to switch every action if they choose. That could be one way Coach Saras looks to slow Olympiacos and force more isolation play. Another key decision will be how to defend Thomas Walkup. The Greek-American guard has been a below-average shooter for most of his career, 33.9% from three on low volume, but he shot extremely well against Monaco, going 8/13 across three games. The question is whether Fenerbahçe goes under in PnR coverage to limit his playmaking or respects the recent shooting.

Olympiacos has also been excellent defensively, especially at the point of attack with Thomas Walkup and Tyson Ward. Still, Fenerbahçe reached an offensive level in the Zalgiris series that they had not shown previously. The preparation was sharp, and Sarunas Jasikevicius consistently generated easy points through play design. The question is whether that translates again here.

Late-game execution could decide the matchup, placing even more weight on guard play. Fenerbahçe has experienced guards who have repeatedly delivered in key moments, Nando de Colo, Wade Baldwin IV, and the biggest X-factor, Talen Horton-Tucker. Can Olympiacos’ guards match that level? That may decide the game.

Two of the best teams in Europe, in a matchup that feels close to a coin flip.

 

Valencia vs Real Madrid

An all-Spanish clash in the second semifinal, and the seventh meeting between these teams across all competitions this season. The wins are split evenly. Valencia or Real Madrid will break the tie and move on to the championship game.

Real Madrid enters OAKA dealing with major absences. Alex Len and Walter Tavares will miss the EuroLeague Final Four due to injury, leaving Real Madrid thin at the 5. Usman Garuba is the only natural center available, despite being undersized, while Trey Lyles is expected to split minutes there.

Lyles’ minutes at the 5 could be decisive. Offensively, his ability to score from anywhere can open up Real Madrid’s attack. Defensively, though, his issues guarding the PnR can become a problem. Hapoel targeted him successfully in that action, and Valencia brings some of the most dynamic ball handlers in the competition, led by “El Problema” Jean Montero.

Pace will likely decide the game. In Games 1 and 2 against Panathinaikos, Valencia was forced into a slower style and fell behind 2-0. Since Game 3, they have found ways to run and avoid late-clock possessions. Transition defense should be central to Sergio Scariolo’s plan. Limiting early-clock opportunities is critical against this Valencia team.

Defensive rebounding is another key area. Valencia thrives by extending possessions through offensive rebounds and second chances. Real Madrid will need to compete on every rebound. The lack of depth at center puts even more focus there.

Offensively, Real Madrid should look to lengthen possessions and force Valencia to defend multiple actions in sequence. Using bigger wings like Mario Hezonja and Gabriel Deck on the block could also be important.

Real Madrid has experience on its side. They have been here before and won this competition before. Valencia is experiencing this stage for the first time, but Greece has treated them well, with four wins in four games on Greek soil this season.

Experience versus boldness. Powerhouse versus underdog. Only one moves on to play for the European crown.

 

This article was written by the European Hoops team: Tiago Cordeiro, João Caeiro and André Lemos. Make sure you give us a follow on Twitter at @EthosEuroleague!