November 4, 2022, 2:51 pm
Titans (+12) @ Chiefs (-540): O/U 45
The second of primetime games this week will also be one with a huge double-digit underdog, though the Titans will at least likely have their regular starting quarterback under center again. Malik Willis was mainly kept under wraps in his spot starter in place of Ryan Tannehill last week, carrying the ball (5) nearly as many times as he completed passes (6). However, Tannehill is expected to practice and return against the Chiefs. The biggest fantasy story last week was Derrick Henry joining OJ Simpson and Adrian Peterson with his sixth career game of 200-plus rushing yards, and now he gets a Chiefs defense that has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
The Chiefs expect to have newly-acquired WR Kadarius Toney on the field for his red and gold debut. Though Toney is unlikely to be fantasy relevant right away, his explosiveness is something that this receiver room has sorely lacked since Tyreek Hill’s departure. It’s something to monitor closely as his talent paired with Patrick Mahomes’ arm could be a lethal combination in fantasy down the stretch. Defensively, first-round draft pick CB Trent McDuffie is also finally recovered from his hamstring ailment that has kept him off the field since the season opener.
Derrick Henry is on an absolute roll, finishing no worse than RB7 in four of his past five games. Perhaps the most impressive part of it is that he’s playing at an elite level right now on a far from elite offense – the Titans have scored the sixth-fewest points in the league through eight weeks. A big part of Henry’s success is that Tennessee fields the sixth-best graded run blocking unit according to PFF. He’ll have another great opportunity in Kansas City this week — the Chiefs are dead last in the NFL in team run stop win rate.
After briefly flashing with a couple of double-digit fantasy point games, Robert Woods has reverted back to a low floor with under 38 receiving yards in four straight. His 22.5% target share on a run-first team just isn’t going to allow him to be anything more than a desperation PPR flex during bye weeks. He’s become a much better real life player than fantasy asset since departing LA.
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