October 27, 2022, 7:04 pm
Packers (+11.5) @ Bills (-550): O/U 47.5
Aaron Rodgers: Most fantasy managers will see Rodgers against the Bills DST and want to bench him, but I think this could be a favorable matchup. Although the Bills allow the third least amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, they score many points. The Packers will surely be chasing points in this game, leading to Rodgers having to throw a ton. The Bills are 11.5-point favorites, which leaves a lot of room for garbage-time points and a potential backdoor cover. Rodgers hasn’t been efficient, but he’s taken care of the ball and has limited giveaways. The yards will likely be there for Rodgers, it’s just about how many touchdowns he can get. With the touchdown upside he possesses, he profiles as a boom-or-bust quarterback with top-5 potential this week.
Aaron Jones is coming off his worst rushing performance and best receiving performance of the year. The Bills allow the fifth fewest fantasy points to oppose running backs, but after what Jones showed in the passing game last week, it seems very hard to bench him. His receiving production is likely to regress, but so is his rushing performance. Jones is a solid RB2 this week. AJ Dillon, on the other hand, possesses very limited upside. Dillon has seen his production dip drastically since the beginning of this year, as his offensive snap percentage dipped to 30% last week. The Packers don’t trust him for some reason, as his touches have been scarce. Dillon has no touchdown upside, as he’s rarely used in the red zone, so he should be sat in all leagues this week.
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