Week 11 Early Slate Part 2 Fantasy Preview

  • Eagles (-300) @ Colts (+7) O/U 45.5

    Jets (+3.5) @ Patriots (-170) O/U 38

    Rams (+3) @ Saints (-175) O/U 39

    Lions (+3) @ Giants (-165) O/U 45


    Eagles @ Colts


    Key storylines/What to Watch

    Will the (Jeff) Saturday success train keep rolling in on Sundays? Last week’s feel-good win over the Raiders in his pro coaching debut was fun. The Colts got back to some basics with some hard-nosed running thanks to the much-needed return of star back Jonathan Taylor (163 total yards from scrimmage), and their much-maligned offensive line posted its best PFF pass-blocking grade of the season and has registered above-average run-blocking grades in consecutive weeks for the first time this season. The other big storyline is whether the re-insertion of Matt Ryan into the starting lineup will restore some fantasy dependability with there wideouts. The improved pass protection certainly made a difference there, but Saturday also seems committed to a conservative attack with a season-low 28 pass attempts from Ryan. When he does air it out, it’s worth noting Ryan has averaged 322 passing yards with a 7/1 TD/INT ratio at home this year compared to just 252 passing yards and a ghastly 3/8 TD/INT ratio on the road.


    The Eagles, meanwhile, are still licking their wounds after suffering their first loss of the season to the division rival Commanders. They’re also coping with some literal injuries, most notably a severe shoulder injury that sent top fantasy TE Dallas Goedert to the IR and sidelining him for at least four games. The immediate fantasy ramifications are likely increased target share for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, with the possibility of also more designed runs for Jalen Hurts that has dipped a bit in recent weeks. 


    Top Starts


    WR A.J. Brown

    The lasting image of Colts CB Stephon Gilmore’s most recent play was a game-sealing pass breakup on an endzone ball intended for Davante Adams. It’s a vivid reminder that the former Defensive Player of the Year has been a borderline top-10 cornerback by overall PFF grade after having a forgettable season last year in Carolina. Even so, Brown has a considerable size advantage over Gilmore (by a whopping 36 lbs) and has an excellent matchup on paper especially with increased target share expected post-Goedert injury. He should have a much easier go of it against Gilmore than Smith. The Colts are actually allowing the fewest fantasy points of any team to opposing wideouts, but the volume and size advantage of Brown over Gilmore should win out here in this individual matchup.


    RB Miles Sanders

    Sanders saw his three-game streak of 13-plus fantasy points snapped against the Commanders and their 8th-ranked run defense, but it should be considerably easier sledding against the Colts, who have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. In the absence of Goedert, it’s also possible that head coach Nick Sirianni opts for an even more run-heavy attack than their current 50.5% rushing play rate (5th-highest). As previously mentioned, that could also result in more designed runs drawn up for Hurts, but I’d expect plenty to be given to Sanders too as the coaching staff has obviously trusted him with heavy work having toted the rock 15-plus times in six of nine games.


    Boom/Bust Dart-Throw


    TE Grant Calcaterra

    Fantasy’s weekly roulette table has been the tight end position, so those who want a DFS dice roll at penny buy-ins can give Calcaterra a try. The rookie sixth-round pick out of SMU has actually been out-snapped by Jack Stoll this season, but Stoll has played nearly two-thirds of his snaps as either a run- or pass-blocker. There’s also some built-in familiarity between Calcaterra and Hurts, who was the tight end’s quarterback at Oklahoma before his brief hiatus from football and subsequent transfer to SMU. This is truly a Hail Mary dart throw, but expect an angry Eagles squad to avenge their first loss with a furious offensive follow-up in Indy.


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    Jets @ Patriots


    Key storylines/What to Watch

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