Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Colts (+175) @ Jags (-200): O/U 44.5
Colts +4.0  (-110), Jags -4.0 (-110)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 4-7 -2.9u
Lean: 7-4 +2.11u

This is not a game you are hopefully excited to watch.  Anthony Richardson is on the shelf for possibly the rest of the season and now a divisional clash with two up-and-coming QBs is reduced to Trevor Lawrence vs. Gardner Minshew.  The Jags are “fresh” off a two-week road trip in London and if history has taught us anything, they will be slow out of the gates.  The Colts took two steps backwards, but also one forward by getting Jonathan Taylor back in the fold.  The Colts have a two-headed monster at RB and Minshew is a more than capable backup.  This game is going to be ugly, full of clock-killing rushes and probably more mistakes than great plays.  All the reason and logic says to back the Jags, but the Colts are frisky and should stay close in a low-scoring affair.

Main Storylines to Watch

Minshew Monster: Minshew might be the best backup in the league and while there is a significant drop-off from Richardson to Minshew, the Colts could end up being a more complete team.  They are going to be built on running the ball and setting up play-action, which Minshew excels at.  He’s far more traditional than Richardson and is probably a better fit next to Zach Moss and Taylor.  Minshew doesn’t have the strongest arm and won’t be much of a threat downfield, but could easily dink-and-dunk this Jags secondary to death.

Jags Waking Up?: These London games throw a wrench into every ability to predict the future, but there will be a toll to be paid for spending nearly two weeks overseas. The Jags are finally looking like a dangerous football team and just beat the Bills pretty handily. This screams letdown game, but they could shake off the fog in the fourth quarter when it’s time for Lawrence to step up and start abusing the Colts’ shoddy secondary.

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