Dolphins @ Bills

Dolphins (-145) @ Bills (+125): O/U 53.5
Dolphins +3 (-120), Bills +-3.0 (+130)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 4-7 -2.9u
Lean: 7-4 +2.11u

This is the game that everyone wants to, nay needs to see.  Both teams are firing on all cylinders and coming off huge blowout wins.  The Dolphins are the best offense in the league by a mile, ranking first in rushing, passing and scoring.  The Bills aren’t far behind, ranking 7th in rushing, 12th in passing and 2nd in scoring.  Historically the Bills own the Dolphins and Josh Allen is 11-2 over his last 13 Miami games and has been locked for about 300 passing yards, two passing TDs and 50 yards rushing each go.  The passing games has gotten all the press for these two clubs recently, but it’s been the run game that has propelled the offenses into unstoppable territory.  Raheem Mostert and James Cook have been gashing teams on the ground all season and this is a theme that should continue on Sunday.  Everyone is dying to find out what happens when two unstoppable juggernauts go head-to-head at the peak of their powers.

Main Storylines to Watch

Stud vs. Stud: Tyreek Hill the clear top wideout in this matchup, but Stefon Diggs is no slouch and he’s averaging 93 yards per-game compared to Hill’s 137.  Both studs should get going early as these teams are elite at putting up points early and keeping their foot on the gas.  The explosive nature of each team’s run game will keep defenses from tilting too far towards any one player and you just know both are licking their chops at this matchup.  The Bills pass defense is currently ranked 3rd, but that’s mostly a mirage as they went up against Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell.  Tua Tagovailoa is completely different beast and he is getting the ball out so quick, it is neutralizing any pass rush.  This game has shootout written in the stars and if these offenses starting chugging, you better believe it will be on the backs of their two superstar WRs.

Run it Back: Sometimes the best way to counter a great offense is an ever greater offense.  If the Bills can’t stop Tua from striking over the middle, the only way to stop him might be to not let him on the field.  The Dolphins rank 24th against the rush and we saw the Chargers in Week 1 cause havoc on the ground for over 200 yards.  A steady diet of James Cook and Josh Allen calling his own number could lead to long drives that keep the Dolphins off-balance.  This is mostly wishful thinking, but if either team decides to drop it’s safeties too far, we could the offenses adapt and just pick up six yards a carry.  This goes the same for Dolphins as the Bills like to play cover-three, especially against deep passing attacks and Mostert has shown he can do a lot with a little room.

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