November 18, 2023, 11:17 am
Arizona (2-8) at Houston (5-4)
ML Cardinals (+210) @ Texans (-258): O/U 48
Cardinals +6 (-110), Texans -6 (-110)
The 2-8 Cardinals travel to Houston to take on the 5-4 Texans in this week. The Texans are riding a two-game winning streak with hopes of making the playoffs led by rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The Cardinals had a come-from-behind win last week over the Falcons with the help of returning stars Kyler Murray and James Conner.
Main Storylines to Watch
How does Kyler Murray look in his second game back? Murray looked good last week in his first game back, but he now will face a Texans defense at home that has the fourth-best pressure rate.
Can Noah Brown keep this up? Over the last three weeks, only CeeDee Lamb has had more receiving yards than Brown. But Brown has missed some practices this week and will come into Sunday with a questionable injury designation.
Kyler Murray: Murray threw for 249 yards with no TDs and an interception last week against the Falcons. But it was his running ability that was impressive in his first action since his injury. Murray added 35 yards and a touchdown on the ground and did not seem limited at all scrambling around. While the Texans can pressure the QB, they do allow the third most fantasy points to QBs this year but they are third in the league in the fewest passing TDs allowed per game. Murray should see enough passing volume and have running opportunities to warrant a start in 1QB leagues.
James Conner: Conner dominated the rush attempts in his first game back with 16, turning them into 73 yards. What was surprising in his game against the Falcons was his lack of involvement in the passing game where he didn’t get a single target. He did have 10 in his first four games of the year, so maybe the team was just easing him back in his first game from injury. This Texans defense has been good against the run as of late. In their last three games, they have only allowed 63 yards rushing a game, which is second-best in the league. Conner can still be started as a RB2/flex but if the Cardinals get behind early in this game, it could be tougher for him to have a good fantasy day.
Cardinals WRs: It was a disappointing day last week for Marquise Brown who most expected more from with Murray returning at QB. Brown only drew four targets, getting just one catch for 28 yards. Rondale Moore led the team with a 25% target share last week with Murray focusing on a lot of short-area throws. He led the WRs with targets, catches, and yards. Michael Wilson saw his routes rise to almost 90%, getting three catches for 34 yards. Brown has a strong enough fantasy history with Murray at QB to still trust as a WR3/flex this week but I would leave the other two on benches as we should see a high-target game from the team’s emerging TE.
Trey McBride: McBride has had a target share of 25% or more in three straight games, finishing as a top-two TE in two of them. This should be a monster game for McBride. Expect him to be the most targeted receiving option as the Texans give up the second most fantasy points to TEs this year.
C.J. Stroud: Stroud comes into week 11 with the second-most passing yards on the season. Over his last two weeks, he has thrown for over 800 yards with seven total touchdowns. He is now a set-it-and-forget-it start at QB for the rest of the season.
Devin Singletary: Dameon Pierce has been ruled out again this week, giving Singletary the reigns again. Last week he had 30 carries for 150 and a TD against a Bengals defense that was top-10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. He now gets a Cardinals defense that allows the 10th most fantasy points to RBs. Start Singletary confidently as an RB2 this week.
Texans WRs: Over the last three weeks, Noah Brown has had the second-most receiving yards, and Tank Dell has averaged over 17 PPR points a game. Nico Collins is set to return this week while Brown enters week 11 with a questionable tag because of a knee issue. Brown hasn’t practiced all week so I don’t expect him to play. I would fire up Dell and Collins as starts in any league format this week.
Dalton Schultz: The Cardinals are giving up five receptions and 63 yards per game on average to TEs this year. Schultz has had over 200 yards receiving in his last two games to finish as the TE1 and the TE8. He is a top-10 option and an automatic start this week.
- Betting Insight
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The Texans are allowing over seven receptions a game to TEs this year. McBride has had eight or more receptions in two out of his last three games. I think Brown will be ruled out, which makes getting Dell at this reception number a homerun. He has had six receptions in each of his last two games.
Bet: Trey McBride O5.5 receptions (+120) (DraftKings)
Bet: Tank Dell O4.5 receptions (+100) (DraftKings)