June 30, 2023, 2:06 pm
Here’s some Pick ‘Em plays our team is looking at for today’s MLB slate!
Writer’s Record: 12-9-2 (-0.5 Units)
Shane McClanahan OVER 7.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Shane O’ Mac has had a bizarre season so far. He leads the league in wins and ERA among qualified pitchers, but his strikeout numbers have been way below what his underlying numbers would suggest. He ranks 2nd in SwStr% and CSW% behind only Spencer Strider. That means he gets more swing and misses than anyone except the strikeout leader. That being said, he hasn’t gotten more than five Ks in any of his June starts. The matchup here is what intrigues me. Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez and Julio Rodriguez all rank in the top 13 when it comes to striking out.
Bryce Harper OVER 1.5 Total Bases
The conditions in Philadelphia point towards a hitter friendly evening at Citizens Bank Park tonight. The matchup with Josiah Gray could also be considered hitter friendly. In the reverse fixture in Washington, Gray gave up four runs against the Phillies as the Nationals blew a 6-0 lead. Everything points to a big night for the Phillies. If you’re taking advantage of the free Flex Friday play, consider stacking some Phillies props together, such as Trea Turner over 0.5 Runs.
LaMonte Wade Jr. OVER 0.5 Singles
The Mets are in bad shape and I don’t expect Carlos Carrasco to be the medicine that will cure their ails. Late night LaMonte has been the Giants’ best hitter in June and has an OBP of .426 against right-handed pitchers on the season. Singles and walks are the only available props for Wade in this game. I think either is a decent play and the Mets have given no indication that they will start to turn things around.
Matt Olson OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Matt Olson ranks 5th in XBH with 41 this year. Ronald Acuna is 2nd with 43, so you could take Acuna (or both), but I’m leaning Olson as the Marlins are starting a right-hander in young Bryan Hoeing. Olson has 23 of his 26 home runs against right-handed pitching this year. The Marlins might be hot, but they’re going up against the class of the NL East who are getting Michael Soroka back tonight.
Starling Marte UNDER 1.5 Total HITs + RBIs
Marte had a brutal time in last night’s game getting caught with the bases loaded twice. The first time, he grounded into a double play. The second time, which came in the bottom of the 9th, he struck out swinging. If he couldn’t get over 1.5 hits + RBIs last night in two bases loaded scenarios, I’m going to feel comfortable taking the under here tonight.
Shane McClanahan OVER 5.5 Total Ks
I like it at o7.0 Ks, so I LOVE it at o5.5 Ks. I am a big fan of these ThriveFantasy picks which come in way below market value. Just another reason to play Thrive Fantasy. This is pretty much a free square at almost even odds.
Luis Robert Jr. OVER 1.5 Total HITs + RBIs
Robert had one of the hottest months in the majors for anyone not named Shohei Ohtani. In June, he accumulated 15 XBH with 10 of those being home runs. The White Sox are playing the Oakland A’s who, despite being competitive for a week or two, just got demolished by the AAA Yankees lineup.