Before we get into anything, the best piece of fantasy advice going into Week 2 is something that Week 1 underperformer Aaron Rodgers himself once said: “R-E-L-A-X.” It’s only Week 2 and that means we’ve got a long way to go. The key to success for fantasy football GMs is to act rationally on legitimate information, and not overreacting on small sample sizes. Now, saying not to overreact isn’t the same as not reacting at all. Week 1 still gave us invaluable insight into a lot of fantasy assets, and we all need to make the proper adjustments to our strategy (ie. send trade offers on the buy-lows, discount the sell-highs) if we want to position ourselves for season-long success. Here are my picks for the top players to buy-low or sell-high after our first week of action.

*All stats are based on 0.5 PPR

Buy-Low

Trey Lance, QB 49ers

164-0-1 passing, 13-54-0 rushing, 9.96 fantasy points vs Bears in Week 1

There’s only so many excuses that can be made about the weather at Soldier Swamp. That’s not what this is about. Regardless of the weather, Lance was outplayed and outscored by fellow second-year QB Justin Fields in the same field conditions. Another thing they had in common is they both were given double-digit carries, and therein lies the floor and potential for why it makes sense to buy-low on Lance. I’ve referenced on the Fantasy NFL Today podcast before that I view Jalen Hurts as Lance’s ceiling comp. Hurts had six 2021 games with double-digit carries, and in those games he averaged 23 overall fantasy points (would’ve been good for QB6 in Week 1) anchored by a floor of 52 rushing yards per game. Lance had 54 rushing yards himself in Week 1 and while many will point to the poor passing output to be reason to jump ship, Hurts himself only threw for just an average of 171 passing yards in those games. There are plenty of knee-jerk fantasy GMs who will jump ship already on Lance, but those with a little more patience could reap the rewards of what should be less choppy waters ahead.

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Sell-High

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB Chiefs

7-42-0 rushing, 3-32-2 receiving, 20.9 fantasy points vs Cardinals in Week 1

The CEH truthers out there would have you believe that this opening performance will be more of the trend than anomaly. First of all, the Chiefs are damn good, but they’re not going to be blowing out a near playoff team from the previous year by 22 points every week, so take the sample with a grain of salt. It’s also always a shaky proposition when 60% of your scoring output comes from touchdowns, which doesn’t give stable floors particularly in PPR. The 21-point fantasy output also seems unsustainable because CEH simply isn’t a bellcow in this offense, as Jerick McKinnon actually played the exact same number of offensive snaps but ran four more routes than CEH. Leading rusher Isiah Pacheco wasn’t really involved in the passing game, but McKinnon will likely continue to cap CEH’s PPR ceiling while Pacheco’s game-breaking speed (0.24s faster 40-yard than CEH) should keep him fairly safe in that Tony Pollard role for the Chiefs.

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