NFL DFS Delivery for Week 18: Contrarian Stacks

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    We have arrived at the final week of the regular season of the NFL schedule. The league did provide us some clarity about how the records would be handled now that we know the Bengals and Bills will not complete their game from Week 17. Given the schedule of games, there are still some that we won’t know their motivations until the results of the early games are completed. Late swapping could be a critical part of success this week. Another avenue to take would be to skip any of the games that may be in question all together.

     

    We will be previewing some contrarian stacks to incorporate into your tournament lineups that will put us in a position to be at the top of the leader board on Sunday afternoon. Before we get into the stacks, here are a few thoughts about this week’s slate:

    1. Josh Allen ($8,400) and Jalen Hurts ($8,200) appear as if they will be the highest played at the QB position this week and for good reason. Both their squads are in scenarios where they need a win and both possess the two highest ceilings by a considerable margin compared to their peers. I would not fault anyone for using them in their tournament lineups this week. Just be sure to mix in some unique pieces with them in your stacks like a Dawson Knox ($4,200) for Buffalo or a Dallas Goedert ($4,900) for Philadelphia. Both are in great offenses and get enough targets to pay off their modest price tags.
    2. The Chargers are heavily affected by the results of the Bengals-Ravens game. If the Bengals are victorious, the Chargers will be locked into the 5 seed which would make them a team to avoid.
    3. The 49ers are in a tricky spot fantasy-wise this week. They can get up to the 1 seed with a win and an Eagles loss. Both are late afternoon games and the Eagles are 14-point favorites against the Giants. If that game gets out of hand, we could see the 49ers begin to pull their starters and coast to the 2 seed.

    Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts and I’ll be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

     

    Sunday’s Props

    Thrive Contest Plays of the Day

    Keeping the prop plays light this week as I only feel comfortable recommending a couple plays with very little value on the board.

     

    Tyler Allgeier 0.5 Rush TDs MORE (90 PTS) – While Cordarrelle Patterson saw more work than expected last week, Allgeier still got 20 carries and converted that to 83 yards and a touchdown. I do not expect the Bucs to keep their starters in for very long in this game, while the Falcons should continue to get reps for their exciting rookie. There is enough volume here for a good shot at a touchdown appearance.

    Courtland Sutton 5.5 Receptions MORE (120 PTS) – Since his return two weeks ago, Sutton has seen targets of 6 and 7, resulting in 4 and 5 receptions. The Broncos effort should be strong in this game and may run into a Chargers team that has locked up their seeding and will not be fighting hard. Russell Wilson has shown signs of life since returning from his concussion and should be motivated to close the season strong with Sutton expected to be a big part of that.

    Contrarian Stack Ideas

    QB: Geno Smith WR: DK Metcalf/ TE: Tyler Higbee

    Total Salary: $17,100

    Remaining Salary: $32,900

    This is an all-or-nothing game for the Seahawks. A win and they clinch a spot in the postseason. While the game sports a low total (currently sitting at 41.5), the pricing and ownership makes these some interesting tournament pieces that have shown flashes of high upside. Geno ($6,000) has cooled off a bit the last few weeks putting up DraftKings scores of 15.3, 13.2 and 17.1. However, two of those games came against the Jets and 49ers which are two of the best defenses in the league and a game at Kansas City which is always tough for opposing QBs. The important thing to note is the Seahawks have one of the highest rates in the league and that should continue in a must-win game.

    DK Metcalf ($6,700) is always a good pairing in a Smith stack and the price this week makes it very palatable. For the season, the Rams are in the bottom-10 in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs, including yielding 11 catches for 90 yards to Metcalf in their Week 12 matchup that was in LA. Gone are the days of Jalen Ramsey shadowing the opposing team’s top WR, so that is of no concern here. Metcalf is the Seahawks best offensive weapon and should be heavily featured in a game they have to win.

    Tyler Higbee ($4,400) is a great bring-back option this week. I expect the Rams to go all out as well this week to try and end the Seahawks season on their home field. The Rams don’t have their own draft pick, so winning this game is of no penalty to them. Since Baker Mayfield has taken the starting job, Higbee has shown a good chemistry with the QB spiking for a massive 30.4 point outing two weeks ago. Pair that with the Seahawks hemorrhaging fantasy points to opposing TEs this year (only the Cardinals are worse for the season) and it presents a great spot for Higbee to pop.

     

    QB: Kirk Cousins WR: Justin Jefferson TE: T.J. Hockenson

    Total Salary: $21,300

    Remaining Salary: $28,700

    This stack is tough because of how expensive it is, but could prove to a slate-winner with the amount of upside it presents. Cousins ($6,500) gets a juicy matchup against a porous Bears team that is obviously going to be trying to lose and secure the first pick in the draft. Some will worry about this game getting out of hand early and the Bears not being able to push the Vikings to keep the ball moving and accruing points. That is a fair point, but if the score does get out of hand, I am willing to bet that these three will have a major hand in that. Cousins has shown high upside this year and we want him in our lineup if we expect big games from the receiving skill position players from the Vikings.

    Justin Jefferson ($9,100) burned a lot of people in their fantasy championships last week (myself included). DFS players haven gotten sharper over the years and I expect most to wipe that from memory and go right back to the well with Jefferson here. There isn’t a lot of selling that needs to be done with Jefferson in this spot. The ownership is a bit of a concern, but pairing him with Hockenson ($5,700) and Cousins will make us unique enough to cash in on his major upside. Hockenson should see reduced ownership this week as he is the second priciest TE on the board behind only George Kittle ($6,000). Most of the ownership at the position should land on a $5,400 Mark Andrews, leaving Hockenson squeezed. Even in last week’s disaster for Minnesota, Hockenson saw 12 targets and was able to produce a line of 7/59/0. He is a high-floor/high-ceiling player in a matchup he and Jefferson can both explode in.

    Key Injuries to Consider

    Not much on the injury front to consider in these stacks.

     

     

    Bonus: Favorite Mini Stack

    WR: DJ Moore/ WR: Chris Olave

    DJ Moore ($6,100) just continues to crush with Sam Darnold in at QB. 18.3, 20.1, 26.7 are his last three outputs on DraftKings. Sure, the touchdowns in all three helps and touchdowns are nearly impossible to predict, but I am willing to continue to ride the momentum of Moore closing out the season on a high note. On the opposing side we have Chris Olave ($6,200) who should be the top option against a Carolina pass defense that got torched against Brady and Evans last week sans Jaycee Horn who is now on IR. Olave has had enough high-upside performances with Dalton at QB that I trust him to pay off his modest price tag in this matchup.

     

    Lineup Builder

     

    Position Player Name DK Salary
    QB Geno Smith $6,000
    RB
    RB
    WR DK Metcalf $6,700
    WR DJ Moore $6,100
    WR Chris Olave $6,200
    TE Tyler Higbee $4,400
    FLEX
    DST
    REMAINING BUDGET $20,600 for 4 plays

     

     

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