Buy/Sell: Week 16

  • Buy-Low

     

    WR Davante Adams, Raiders

    It’s understandable to have a little bit of panic seeing Adams turn in a pedestrian 4-28-0 line against the Patriots especially in the long-awaited return game for Darren Waller (3-48-1, three targets) and Hunter Renfrow (1-14-0, three targets). However, don’t forget that the stout Pats are surrendering the 7th-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The return of Waller and Renfrow were bound to deal a hit to Adams’ target share — his 23.6% share vs. the Pats was well below the staggering 35.4% share he enjoyed in the five total games in which the Raiders passing game were missing both Waller and Renfrow simultaneously. However, Adams has delivered on under 30% target share before. In 2020 when he pulled down a career-high (and NFL-leading) 18 receiving touchdowns with Aaron Rodgers, his target share on the season was actually a “modest” 28.3%. The Raiders will see a much easier defensive opponent in Pittsburgh for Week 16 with the Steelers allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to wideouts, including a 5-73-1 spot from a banged up DJ Moore this past week.

     

    RB Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks

    I know that I wasn’t alone this past week in having one of the most painful sit/start dilemmas with whether to start Walker against the best run defense in football in the 49ers during the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Walker has been a revelation when healthy, but like many others I opted to bench him (if you must know, it was for AJ Dillon – 20.6 points on MNF). Despite a monstrous 33-yard catch that he turned around the edge against the vaunted linebacking group of San Francisco, Walker was just barely held to single-digit fantasy points, so those going for the ceiling play like me were probably feeling OK about the difficult decision. Week 16 presents a totally different scenario, where the Seahawks will be similarly fighting for their NFC Wild Card fates, but this time it will be against a Chiefs defense that has been middle-of-the-pack in fantasy points allowed to running backs and one that is allowing the 11th-highest opposing YPC at home. The game should be a high-scoring affair, so there are bound to be more red zone opportunities for Walker than there were with the Niners.

     

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