Early Week Streamers for May 12th – May 15th

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  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on May 11, 2025 5:42 am by Anthony Kates | Published: May 11, 2025

    This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. As I will be producing Sunday’s article, at the time it is published, it will have the most up-to-date information for Monday through Wednesday’s pitching schedules and streams. If there are any changes, the article will be updated to reflect that, so check back daily. On Monday night, I’ll update Wednesdays streamers, as I have more information and less TBD spots on the schedule. On Tuesday night, I will update and post any streams for Thursday, as there will be more information available for the few Thursday games we will have and there should be no TBD spots on the schedule for that day.

    You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    **All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

    Monday – May 12th – Probable Starters

    David Peterson – NYM – vs Pirates – 32%

    It should come as no surprise that the Pirates perform poorly against LHP. Over the past month their wRC+ is just 73, their wOBA .280 and their OPS is .623. their 24.6% strikeout rate is tied with the Reds for 10th while their 7.8% walk rate is tied for the 11th lowest with the Orioles. They hit more ground balls than fly balls, have a middle of the pack hard hit rate and the ninth lowest soft hit rate. They have the 14th most PA against LHP over the last 30 days and are tied for 15th in home runs, with five, but have the fifth fewest runs scored, with 18. They have grounded into a double play seven times, tied for the fourth most.

    Peterson has raised his strikeout rate by nearly one full strikeout per nine innings pitched, he is walking a career low amount of batters and has continued to limit home runs at a near elite rate. His 57.5% ground ball rate is a career high, with his 20.4% fly ball rate a career low, though he has been living on the edge with a 51.7% hard-hit rate and a 91.5 MPH avgEV. Luckily, the elite ground ball rate with a career low 5.2% barrel rate and a career best 32.5% chase rate has limited any damage that could be done by those balls that are getting absolutely smoked. He does have a career high 80.8% contact rate, so I do think there is some regression coming at some point, that hard-hit and contact rate combined with a career low 9.1% swinging strike rate screams I’m a problem, but it should probably wait until after facing a poor offense like the Pirates.

    Matthew Liberatore – STL – @ Phillies – 48%

    Liberatore is rostered in just under 50% of leagues, so this start against the Phillies is highly pivotal. Perform well and he moves up over the 50% rostered rate and we don’t talk about him as a streaming factor anymore. Struggle and we might have to lean towards only starting him against below average offenses until proven otherwise. Philly, for their part, has the 11th highest wRC+ over the past month against LHP, with a 106. They’re .327 wOBA is ninth and their .738 OPS is ninth as well. They have a middle of the pack strikeout rate, 23.2%, tied with the Braves, and a 9.2% walk rate, which is the 13th highest. They hit more fly balls than ground balls, have the highest hard hit rate, 37.9%, and the seventh lowest soft hit rate, 13.2%, tied with the Twins. They have the 13th most PA against LHP over the past month, but they are tied for the fifth most homers, with eight, and 12th most runs, with 31.

    Liberatore has raised his strikeout rate, lowered his walk and home run rates, while allowing more ground balls than fly balls and a barrel rate of just 6.9%. He has pitched at least six innings in six of his seven starts (the only game he didn’t he was pulled after the third due to an hour long rain delay), has allowed more than three earned runs only once and has allowed just six earned runs over his last five starts and 28.2 innings. He’s walked a batter in only four starts and more than one in only one, while only allowing two home runs over 41 innings. He boasts a career high chase rate, of 31.6%, a career low contact rate, at 76.4%, and is nearly matching his career high swinging strike rate, with an 11.5%. The only real blemish on his numbers is his 44% hard-hit rate and his 90.2 MPH avgEV. If he can limit quality of contact, force those ground balls and get the Phillies to chase plenty of pitches outside the zone, Liberatore is going to have a heck of a day.

    High-risk: Merrill Kelly @ Giants, Tanner Houck @ Tigers, Colin Rea vs Marlins, Ben Lively vs Brewers, Chase Dollander @ Rangers, Cal Quantrill @ Cubs, Chad Patrick @ Guardians, Justin Verlander vs Diamondbacks, Emerson Hancock vs Yankees, Jake Irvin @ Braves, Michael Wacha @ Astros, Grant Holmes vs Nationals

    Tuesday – May 13th- Probable Starters

    Ben Brown – CHC – vs Marlins – 13%

    Miami has performed right in the middle of the pack against RHP on the road over the last month. They have a 97 wRC+, which is good for 15th, .314 wOBA that is 17th and a .713 OPS that is 18th. They have just a 20.4% strikeout rate, but their 6.1% walk rate is the third lowest. They hit more ground balls than fly balls, their 26.1% hard-hit rate is the lowest in the league and their soft hit rate is 16th. They have the fifth least amount of PA but they are tied for 12th in home runs, with 13, and are 19th in runs.

    Brown has continued to post and excellent strikeout rate, much like he had in the minor leagues, 10.90 K/9, even better than his rookie year, but has also continued to struggle with poor control, as he is walking nearly four batters per nine innings. He has had some poor batted ball luck, what with a .398 BABIP, but he has allowed just a 6.6% barrel rate, a 44.8% ground ball rate and just a 72.1% contact rate. Causing some concern is his 44.3% hard-hit rate and his 91.6 MPH avgEV, but by limiting quality of contact and fly balls, he’s been able to limit home runs and mitigate much of the damage done against him. He’s generally successful when he limits walks and facing a team like the Marlins who struggle at taking free bases, I think Brown will have a very solid outing.

    Andrew Abbott – CIN – vs White Sox – 36%

    The White Sox have been bad against LHP this past 30 days, but not the worst in the league like they started out the year. Their wRC+ is 75, which is tied with Milwaukee for the 10th lowest, their .275 wOBA is eighth lowest and so is their .616 OPS. They have the ninth highest strikeout rate, 24.7%, and fourth lowest walk rate, 6.8%. They hit more fly balls than ground balls, but have the third lowest hard hit rate, 24.8%, with the 11th lowest soft hit rate, 14.1%. Though they have the fourth most PA against LHP over the past 30 days, they are tied for eighth lowest total home runs, with four, with the Brewers, and have scored the eighth most total runs, with 34.

    Abbott is currently striking out batters at a career high rate, 11.63 K/9, but also walking them at a career high rate, 4.5 BB/9. He is limiting home runs more than he has previously, with just three home runs allowed over five starts and 24 innings. He has a career high fly ball rate and a career low ground ball rate, with a 9.1% barrel rate but just a 25.5% hard-hit rate and an 87.8 MPH avgEV. He has allowed a 76.6% contact rate and has a 10.2% swinging strike rate, to go along with a career high 28.4% chase rate. Abbott should strike out more than a batter per inning, walk one or two batters and should reach the sixth inning, for his second quality start of the season.

    High-risk: Jeffrey Springs @ Dodgers, Cade Povich vs Twins, Brayan Bello @ Tigers, Jonathan Cannon @ Reds, Logan Allen vs Brewers, Kyle Freeland @ Rangers, Jose Soriano @ Padres, Vicente Bellozo vs Cubs, Quinn Priester @ Guardians, Simeon Woods-Richardson @ Orioles, Mitch Keller @ Mets, Mike Soroka vs Braves, Jack Leiter vs Rockies


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    May 11, 2025, 5:42 am