Before Opening Day, not many would’ve predicted the major-league ERA leader to be Seth Lugo at the halfway point in the season, yet here we are, with Lugo’s 2.17 mark leading all qualified starters. First in wins, third in innings pitched, and top 20 in WHIP, strikeouts and  batting average against round out a statistically exceptional first half, at least on the surface.

So what’s changed to turn a pitcher who generally posts a ~3.6 ERA and a ~1.20 WHIP as a starter, to a serious candidate for the AL Cy Young award?

Stuff Profile
Lugo’s velocity and movement on his pitches have dropped across-the-board, causing most of his Stuff + grades to fall, both in the overall grade (103 in ‘23 to 97 this season) and on his fastball, sinker, changeup, and slurve. The improvements come on his curveball and slider, both with increased spin and velocity.

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