Working The Waiver Wire: September 12th

  • It’s the second week of September and yet here you are, still grinding things out in the trenches of the waiver wire columns? That kind of dedication can only mean you’re laser-focused on every last counting stat you can muster up as you chase down a championship trophy. In that case, let’s waste no time and get straight down to business by discussing the names below. They may not be the sexiest names overall but what’s important is that they’re currently in the midst of a hot streak worth hitching your playoff wagon to.

    Let’s go!

    Daylen Lile – OF – WSH – 35% Yahoo, 20% CBS

    Last 14 Days: .388/.412/.735 – 2HR/1SB – .477 wOBA – .347 ISO – 213 wRC+

    As mentioned above, the number one factor at this time of year when considering waiver options is whether they can keep their momentum going for another week or two, but it doesn’t hurt if the player carries a few elite characteristics in their profile to make you feel more confident in recommending them.

    Luckily for me and my case in favor of his candidacy for your roster, Lile has a number of standout metrics, including above average rates in Whiff% (18.3%), Squared-Up% (29.8%) and xwOBA (.348). However, his two most notable come in the form of his elite xBA (.309) and his ability to consistently find the launch-angle sweet-spot on his batted balls (43.9%), both of which would be in the 96th-percentile or higher if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. That said, I’m not throwing up my usual “small sample size alert” here as this hasn’t come in a tiny sample, with Lile tallying 290 plate appearances over 75 games on the season.

    Now, you’re probably thinking “didn’t we just talk about how we should ignore past production and focus on the present”? Well, fortunately for me once more, Lile has been on a tear of late, showing some uptick in in-game power ability after not providing much impact in that department earlier in the year.

    Prior to Aug 10

    Aug 10 Onwards

    Barrel%

    3.5% 6.1%
    Hard-Hit% 38.7%

    45.1%

    Average EV

    88.9mph 90.5mph
    ISO .133

    .247

    Looking at Lile’s prospect report on FanGraphs, he earned above-average marks for his hit tool (55) and speed (60) but don’t assume he’s just a slaphitting speedster – he also received a 50-grade for his raw power, although that shades down to a 45 in game situations. Considering this is a 22-year-old hitter in his first taste of the majors on a rebuilding team, the Nationals have nothing to lose by letting Lile get as much playing time as possible the remainder of the year to see if this is just a balloon waiting to pop or if a true breakout has occurred.

    Harrison Bader – OF – PHI – 19% Yahoo, 28% CBS

    Last 14 Days: .372/.413/.605 – 2HR/0SB – .435 wOBA – .233 ISO – 182 wRC+

    On the opposite end of the playoff spectrum, Bader may be earning his spot in the starting roster because the Phillies understand that he could be crucial in their postseason run if they can keep his ball rolling – or barreling in this case.

    Bader is more of a known value based off his nine years in the majors but would you believe that after donning six different teams’ jerseys over the past four seasons that he is currently in the midst of the best offensive season of his career? That’s true no pretty much no matter how you slice it either, with career-highs either being held or already set this season in home runs, average, on-base percentage, slugging, wOBA and wRC+ to boot.

    Though we have his last two weeks’ statistics listed above, let’s zoom out a bit further to show his line over the past 30 days, considering this hot streak has now been going on for a full month.

    .378/.436/.589 – 3HR/0SB – .437 wOBA – .211 ISO – 183 wRC+

    Those look almost identical to me, so if you’re having any trepidation about about adding an older player with less upside, I think you should look past your prior held convictions on this one. You can thank me with a 1% cut of your winnings if it works for you!*

    (*Payable in deferred payments over the next 10 years)

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