Now almost two months deep into the 2025 season, we’ve moved past the territory of early-season breakouts fueling our bids on waiver wire options and we’ve moved firmly into the realm of hunting for prospect call-ups that could be difference-makers for your team. With that in mind, I think it’s worth examining the process that usually follows the announcement of an intriguing prospect receiving a promotion. For me, the most important thing to note is the clear difference between prospects receiving a callup for their major league debut, versus a prospect who’s coming up for the second or third time.

There’s a saying of sorts in dynasty leagues that suggests the best time to trade any prospect is before their debut – before anyone has seen them fail. In a similar sense for redraft leagues, the best time to add them is before they debut. Ideally, you’re able to do so a week before they debut since whenever a newly minted major leaguer with some prospect pedigree becomes available, managers are more than willing to break the bank with their FAAB bids in order to make sure they land the player. Of course, that tends to price the player up far past their actual value and boxes out many managers who would have loved to be the one to add them to their squad. So here’s my fantasy game theory pitch; we should all start adding prospects a week too early, rather than a week too late.

That is a tough assignment though because, of course, it requires an extra level of attentiveness since not all promotions are telegraphed by the team. Sometimes you need to make some educated guesses and jump early instead. The positive of doing so is that the upside for your return on investment is huge. A $5 FAAB prospect turning into a full blown stud is a major win but the best part is that even if the player you invested in doesn’t quite pan out, you added them for next to nothing, meaning that cutting them loose doesn’t hurt quite as much either. On the other hand, if you spent a huge sum to add a player, the chances are much higher that you’ll suffer through their cold streaks even though they may simply be a sunk cost at that point.

Hopefully you were two steps ahead and planned to grab the player we’ll talk about below first. But if not, my fourth waiver option may be your next cheapest ticket to the prospect lottery.

Cade Horton – SP – CHC – 12% Yahoo, 0% CBS

Triple-A was not friendly to Horton in his first go-around.

Though he was young for the level at just 22-years-old, Horton struggled mightily in his 18 innings, posting a 7.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. On the positive side, his impressive strikeout totals didn’t abandon him when moving up a level as he actually improved from a 9.92 K/9 to a 11.0 K/9 after moving from Double-A to Triple-A.

That Triple-A stop was actually the first time he’d posted an ERA above 1.33 at any level since a 3.83 mark at High-A in 2023, so it’s fairly easy to explain away his difficulties as a young for the level player who was likely wearing out towards the end of the season while facing an increased difficulty of competition. With the winter off to recuperate, Horton came out of the gate seemingly fully refreshed as he followed that 7.50 ERA at Triple-A in 2024 with a 1.24 mark in 29 innings this season. Pairing that impressive ERA with an equally impressive 10.24 K/9 and you’ve got a recipe for the package of a mid-rotation starter.

However, I will pour a bit of cold water on the profile by pointing to his walk rate. Though he did shave almost a walk-and-a-half off his BB/9 totals from last year’s run at Triple-A, that still only got him down to 4.03 per nine innings, which is going to be a problem for him against major league hitters. I wouldn’t expect him to go particularly deep into games either, considering he’s totaled just 122.2 innings the past two seasons.

Nonetheless, I think the overall ratios will be enticing enough to make him an add for 14-team leagues and deeper as an intriguing strikeout play. Just be careful to offload him before a likely move to the bullpen once we make it to the back half of the season.

Evan Carter – OF – TEX – 12% Yahoo, 37% CBS

Evan Carter feels to me a bit like the hitter version of Ian Anderson.

For the uninitiated, as a rookie, Ian Anderson played a major role in the Braves’ 2020 playoff run, pitching to a 1.96 ERA in 32.1 innings during the regular season and then following that up with a 0.96 ERA across four post-season starts. It seemed like the arrow was pointing almost directly up on his value, especially since he followed that season up with a 3.58 ERA and then once again shoved in the playoffs, holding opponents below a 2.00 ERA over four starts en route to a World Series title. But since then? Well, he’s fallen off the map and was recently released by the Angels of all organizations – never a good sign for your value.

Carter is not yet as far down that same path but there are aspects of his story that line up in a way that paint him in a similar light, though I’m much more a believer in him turning things around.

Like Anderson, Carter performed at an All-Star level during his debut, posting a .306/.413/.645 slash line with a 182 wRC+ across his first 23 career games, before following that up with an incredible playoff performance, posting a .917 OPS in 17 games as the Rangers earned a World Series title of their own. The post-title hangover seemed to hit Carter just as hard as it did Anderson, with Carter following up his borderline Playoff MVP run with a .188 average and 80 wRC+ in 45 games the following year before what is now a chronic back injury began to flare up on him, causing him to miss the remainder of the season due to what was tabbed as a lumbar strain.

After spending the latter half of the year rehabbing, the Rangers originally determined the best place for Carter to play was back at Triple-A but with Leody Taveras recently getting claimed off Outright Waivers by the Mariners, Texas felt that Carter was their best option for the role and recalled him in advance of Tuesday’s game versus Boston. With the path clearer than before, Carter now looks like their every day centerfielder, although he will need to make improvements against left-handed pitchers (career .098 average) in order to avoid a strict platoon.

Still, this is a player that was a Top-20 prospect at time of graduation who has performed at exceptional levels against some of the toughest competition. That’s not something I easily forget, even if there is a back-injury mixed in.

The difference in fanfare is notable though, is it not? Carter is just 22-years-old and still younger than both presumptive favorites for Rookie of The Year honors – Kristian Campbell and Roki Sasaki. But two of those players were selected in the Top-150 this spring, whereas Carter might not even cost you $15 FAAB. I’m willing to bet on the talent coming through in the future, especially since we’ve seen it before.

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