Texans (+2.5) @ Jets (-2.5)

O/U 43.5

Important notes for Texans:

This would have been highlighted as a potential Thursday Night showdown in the summer, but with the Jets melting down and the Texans down two of their three-headed receiving monster, it’s just another game.  The Texans are 6-2, but their record is deceiving as the offense has struggled all season as it’s been putting undue pressure on CJ Stroud.  With Joe Mixon healthy and chugging, it has looked better in recent weeks, but they only put up 23 points against IND, who boasts one of the worst defenses in the league.  The Texans are supposed to be built on the arm of Stroud, but expect them to lean on the legs of Mixon, who has has at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games and is going against the 30th ranked rush defense.  Beware of the Thursday running back, but it’s going to very hard to fade Mixon in this game.

Important notes for the Jets:

The sky is falling and the Jets are surrounded by darkness.  There is nowhere left to hide and you have to wonder if this team is just going to roll over and play dead.  Aaron Rodgers is dealing with several nagging injuries and it’s not going to get easier with less rest and a beastly HOU defensive line.  This game could be ugly if both offenses struggle like I predict and expect the Jets to lean on Breece Hall to drag them to the finish line.  The Texans boast a top-five pass defense and while Garrett Wilson should still eat, Davante Adams is on the downslope and Allen Lazard is out.  Rodgers is too old and too brittle to carry the burden any more and this team is begging to throw in the towel.

The QBs: On paper this is a great matchup of past vs. future as Stroud is getting better each game while Rodgers is clinging to what’s left of his talent.  Both pass defenses are elite and as great as the QB talent is on both sides, I wouldn’t start either QB in 1QB leagues this week.  Stroud only has Tank Dell and the ceiling on Rodgers is capped at two TDs and 250 yards, which is a lofty goal this week.  I predict 220 yards, one TD and one or two INTs.  Stroud has the capability to raise his game, but it’s not worth betting on until next week when Nico Collins returns.  This has all the makings of a run-heavy, smash-mouth football game where the time ticks off the clock while the passing game has a failure to launch.

The RBs : The TNF RB curse has been broken and while it’s still something to be wary of, it would be impossible to fade either RB in this game.  I don’t worry about a lack of production, but I do fear an injury as both teams as the Jets are cursed and Mixon is injury-prone.  Hall and Mixon are hardcore RB1s this week as each has a great matchup due to potential game-script.  Hall has been a better receiver than runner this season and Mixon is running as well as anyone not named Derrick Henry.  Mixon has handled at least 27 touches in three of his five games this season and the Texans are just trying to hold down the fort one more week.  I can’t imagine they lean on him that much on a short week, but Dameon Pierce is out and Cam Akers is traded, Dare Ogunbowale has low-end flex value in deeper leagues.  The Texans rank fourth in the NFL in DVOA against the run. They are also third in limiting running backs as receivers out of the backfield, so Hall is facing an uphill climb to finish as a top-10 RB this week.  Volume is king and hopefully the Jets are going to give him 20+ touches.

The WRs : If everyone was healthy, this could be the Pro-Bowl, but instead Colins and Stefon Diggs are hurt and Adams is chasing the twilight of his career.  It’s Tank Dell vs. Garrett Wilson, which isn’t nearly as compelling.  Wilson has turned it on after a terrible start, but he has at least eight targets in every game except one this season and has over 100 yards in three of the last four games.  He’s back and Adams is only helping him get better coverage instead of stealing targets.  Adams himself only has 85 yards combined in the last two games and he might still nursing the hamstring issue.  I wouldn’t bank on that getting better on a couple days rest and this secondary.  Rodgers trust Adams 100%, but something isn’t right and I might bench Adams if I had a solid replacement option.  Despite the matchup, Dell is a must-start player and I would start him over Adams this week.  He hasn’t had a breakout game and will be blanketed this week, but the number-one WR with CJ Stroud is always a must-start player.  He’s had eight targets combined the last two weeks, I would expect close to 10 targets in this game.  The dark horse sleeper though is John Metchie, who had a career-high three catch game last week and is a burner on the field.  He might not get the volume, but he’s threat this week as a deep-league WR3 if you need some help off the wire.

The TEs :  Dalton Schultz is coming off his best game of the season and it makes sense that if two WRs are down, Stroud will turn to his TE when it all breaks down.  He only has one game with at least 50 this season and zero TDs, but you could do worse if you are streaming TEs.  Tyler Conklin has TDs in b2b games and the first rule of gambling is never bet against a streak.  I like Schultz more than Conklin this week, but TDs are king as Conklin has two thrones.  Ideally after the TE explosion last week you aren’t trusting either of these guys to produce in a pinch.

Best Bet : Joe Mixon over 81.5 rushing yards and to score a TD (+150)

I’m breaking my own rule here, which I tend to do a lot, but Mixon has been rumbling lately and the Jets can’t stop a cold on the ground.  If he breaks a big one this bet could cash on one play.  The risk is Mixon gets hurt or the Jets somehow rally around something and actually show up on defense this week.  I’m not sure that is going to happen, so I love Mixon to ground-and-pound all game and possibly have this wrapped up by halftime.  If you want to get dangerous, you could also parlay this with the under and while overs are exploding lately, I just don’t see it in this game where the clock is going to always be ticking.

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