• Doug Reid (@doug_reid34)

    MLB

    – 2024 Record 74-52-1, 58.73%, + 27.29 units

    Atlanta at Baltimore, 1:05pm EST
    – Baltimore ML (-105), 1.05 units (Pinnacle)Atlanta starts right handed Reynaldo Lopez and Baltimore counters with left handed Cole Irvin.  Both pitchers have looked good this season however, when you dig into their stats it is apparent that they are outperforming their expected stats.  Lopez has a 1.85 ERA with a 3.85 xERA and 3.72 xFIP, so nearly a two run gap from his actual ERA.  Irvin has a 2.87 ERA with a 4.57 xERA and 4.22 xFIP so a little under a run and a half gap.  This handicap comes down to the Braves have struggled at the plate recently and the Orioles have not.  Against left handed pitching Atlanta has a 103 wRC+ which is fourteenth in baseball, and against all picthers since May 1st, the Braves are 28th in baseball with an 84 wRC+.  Baltimore has a 113 wRC+ against right handed pitching this season and since May 1st, against all pitching they are fourth at 117.  Currently Baltimore is getting 74% of the bets and 73% of the money, so no real lean either way on this game, other than the consensus backing the home favourite.

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