Doug Reid (@doug_reid34)

College Football

Ole Miss at Arkansas, 12:00pm EST
– Arkansas +7.5 (-111), 1.11 units (Pinnacle)

This line opened with Ole Miss laying 9.5 points but money quickly hit the Arkansas side and has bounced around the key number of 7 all week.  I liked Arkansas catching 7 at home, so happy to get the hook as well.  Ole Miss comes in ranked #19 in the AP Poll and I think the market is giving this ranking too much credit.  They lost 20-17 at home against Kentucky and squeaked by a struggling Oklahoma team last week at home 26-14, a game in which they were behind 14-10 at halftime.  In between these games is a 27-3 win at South Carolina and a 29-26 overtime loss at LSU.  Their first four non-conference games were all easy wins against weaker competition.  Arkansas has played a tougher schedule in my opinion and has an impressive 19-14 home win over Tennessee who was ranked #4, and a tough 21-17 home loss to Texas A&M who was ranked #24.  Is Ole Miss the better team, the answer is probably yes however, I think they are being slightly overvalued in the market.  Also, Arkansas has proven they can compete with good teams this year and with the home crowd behind them I’m happy to take the 7.5 points.

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