Fantasy at its core is about swinging for the fences and just crushing one of your early picks.  If you draft a player in the third round who provides first round value, the cascading effect on your whole team is priceless.  It takes a lot for that to happen as everyone has the same info and it’s how you sort, quantify and extrapolate that info that separates the fantasy also rans from the fantasy champions.  Let’s look at the players who finished at the top of their position last season and try and look for some semi-longshots to predict who will finish there this season

QB1 in 2023 – Josh Allen at 24.2 FPPG

Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy player the last three seasons and that’s because he does a little bit of everything.  In order to grab the top-spot, a QB is going to have to out-Allen Allen and that’s no easy task.  They are going to have run, pass and score and do it all at an elite level.  While players like Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa were slinging the ball as well as anyone last season, their lack of rushing yards/rushing TDs really capped their ceiling and while Prescot was the QB3, he was still 3.5 FPPG behind Allen.

Darkhorse prediction for 2024

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Murray is currently going as the 9^th QB off the board and while he hasn’t been great or available the last two seasons, this is a brand new team that might be ready to storm the gates.  Murray has it in him as he was the QB2 (24.4 FPPG) as a sophomore in 2020.  He’s got the perfect mix of rushing ability (11 TDs with 819 rushing yards) combined with an increased awareness and an ability to make progressions while scrambling from pressure.  In order to finish as the QB1 there can’t be any holes in the QB or the team.  The real reasoning that could skyrocket Murray is both the ascension of TE Trey McBride and rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.  Both players are primed to hit the ground running and RB stalwart James Connor is still chugging away at an elite rate.  It doesn’t stop there as it’s hard for a QB with an elite defense to get caught in shootouts.  No problem there as the Arizona defense figures to have a bottom-five unit and will rely on Murray to not only keep them in games, but catch them back up.

For Murray to dominate it’s all going to come down to his confidence in his teammates as two seasons ago, he looked awful as he perpetually checked down and averaged a career-low 6.2 yards-per-completion.  Compare that with his previous campaign, the one after his QB2 finish where he averaged 7.9 yards-per-completion, and it was like watching a completely different QB.  It’s not a lock by any means, as he still has to prove he can stay healthy and the offensive line isn’t elite.  The real missing link is a third threat and if Michael Wilson can emerge or Zay Jones can get back to his 2022 self where he racked up 823 yards, the Cardinals will be too versatile to contain and might profile as one of the most entertaining teams in the league.

RB1 In 2023 – Christian McCaffrey at 24.5 FPPG

McCaffrey wasn’t just great last season; he was transcendent and the only question was whether he was going to score two TDs instead of just one.  He was more than three points ahead of the RB2 Kyren Williams and he was more than 6.5 points ahead of the RB3 Alvin Kamara.  To be honest if CMC has that season again, no one is topping him, but if someone wants to keep pace with him, they are going to have to do it on the ground and somehow outpace him in the receiving game.

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