2021 John Deere at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL July 8th – 11th

Plays from Joe Campise

The event is lacking star power because The Open (July 15 -18 in England) is the following weekend. Only 5 players inside the Top 50 will be present. The defending champ (2019) is Dylan Fritelli. The favorites are Daniel Berger +900, Brian Harman +1100, Sungjae Im +1400 & Russell Henley +1800.

Course conditions will be easy for hitting fairways and the course length is just under 7300 yards.

My model: I will be looking at the usual Strokes Gained Total in the last 8 & 36 rounds, Strokes Gained at TPC Deere Run in the last 8 & 36 rounds, Strokes Gained Ball striking in the last 8 & 36 rounds, Strokes Gained  hitting fairways EASY last 8 & 36 rounds, and Strokes Gained Putting in the lasts 8 rounds.

The Top 10

Berger

Henley

Harman

Streelman

Power

Wise

Stricker

McNealy

Noren

Lebioda

Top 20 

Harman -125 to win 2 units

Henley -120 to win 2 units

Lebioda +275

Ben Martin @ DK +500 (0.5 unit)

Tournament Matchup July 8 -11

6:00 am July 8th Vegas -145 v Poston To win 3 units. Vegas ranks 13th in model due to Strokes Gained Total and Strokes Gained – Ball striking. In the last 8 rounds, he ranks 13th in SG Total and 1st in SG Ball Striking (in the last 36 rounds he ranks 2nd). Poston ranks 109th in my model due to SG Total in the last 36 rounds – ranks 82nd and in the last 8 rounds ranks 109th. In the last 8 rounds at TPC Deere Run, he ranks 101st.