Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide 2026: Risk/Reward Players

Last Updated on October 13, 2026 6:06 pm by Mike Passador | Published: October 13, 2026

It’s commonly said you can lose your fantasy draft in the opening rounds. That’s cool and all…but what about winning your drafts? How do we do that thing, huh?!

Normally most winning rosters will feature some risky draft-day picks that end up becoming the backbone of the roster. These selections could also doom your roster…but hey, you don’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs, right?

I’ll stop with the cliches (FOR NOW), but you do need to inject some room for elevated returns across your roster. You can find these risk/reward options scattered throughout all rounds. Should you accept this risk, you may get rewarded with a trophy at the end of the season. I’ve divided up the players into four categories: Injury-prone players; New Situations; Rookies; and Potential Role and Timeshares. Time to dive in!

Injury-Prone Players

This category is fairly self-explanatory. While load management isn’t going away anytime soon, there are certain players that have more extreme injury concerns. In this section, I’ll also address players coming off major injuries.

Joel Embiid/Anthony Davis/Kawhi Leonard/Stephen Curry

Note to editor: I refuse to write these players up separately. Please refer to meme below. Thank you.

This foursome are the more classic “big-name players” who have experienced consistent injuries throughout their career. Anthony Davis has been limited to 20, 42, and 51 games the last three seasons, most of these due to nagging hamstring or other leg-related injuries. He obviously is still impactful whenever he plays, but how many games can you trust him to appear in?

Joel Embiid is perhaps even more extreme, with better highs in his production but with less availability with 38, 19, and 39 games played the last three seasons. I wouldn’t be drafting either player and expecting to rely on their production every wee,k but instead treat them as nice X-Factor boosts when they are healthy. That makes them more middle-round targets, which their ADP reflects.

Believe it or not, Kawhi Leonard has been relatively healthy the last three seasons, with 65, 37, and 68 games played. Personally I’m not all that concerned with his games played (at least, not any more so compared to other older players). My bigger concern is that on a better team, the Raptors could afford to manage Leonard’s games played a tad more. A competing factor is that a more competitive Eastern Conference could led the Raptors to push Leonard more than they intend. At his ADP in the mid-third round on most sites, Leonard is a great gamble if your first two picks are safer ones.

You may question why Stephen Curry is on this list. He’s never really been a member of this crew! Yes, that is true! However, he dealt with something commonly referred to as “runner’s knee” at the end of last season and overall was limited to 43 games. Besides the fact I hate running, “runner’s knee” doesn’t sound like something that just goes away! And last I checked, basketball involves this thing called…running! I still think Curry is one of the most impactful players in the league. Do I think he could have more management games, especially if the Warriors season gets derailed early (seriously, their roster is not that good)? Now his ADP is at the end of the second round, so you’ll have to decide if this risk is worth it. For what it’s worth, it is the range where I would take Curry myself.

Kyrie Irving

Mark has plenty of thoughts about this season’s Risk-Reward players. Want to see them? You’ll need to have an Ethos 360, All-Sport or NBA FantasyPass membership. Click here to learn more and sign up! Premium Access Required

• About the Author
• Latest Posts

Mark C

After years of playing redraft fantasy basketball leagues with my friends, I branched out to dynasty leagues. As my hunger for competitive leagues grew, I found myself having lengthy conversations in various forums and developing my own thoughts on rookies and veteran players alike. Among the dynasty community, I found a gap in understanding on-court play and valuing transactions properly and thought to myself “I have a lot to say that could help dynasty managers!” I eventually came onto Sports Ethos as the Dynasty Lead, producing Dynasty Fantasy Basketball content such as rankings, rookie profiles, and other sorts of articles to enable managers to make informed decisions on their own squads. I pride myself in marrying on-court NBA and fantasy basketball analysis, giving readers and listeners of my content a holistic knowledge base of not only dynasty basketball projects but also the NBA itself.

• Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide 2026: Risk/Reward Players
• Punt Intended: Central Division Dynasty Outlook!
• Punt Intended: Northwest Division Dynasty Outlook!
• Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide 2026: Third-Year Players
• Punt Intended: Southeast Division Dynasty Outlook!