Last Updated on July 17, 2025 2:52 am by Anthony Kates | Published: July 17, 2025

There is no better time than the MLB All Star break to take a look around your team, and your fantasy league, to see where you can find some excess value and improve your team. Doing so can be a difficult task, especially if you aren’t sure who you can trust to continue to produce or who has some rough waters ahead.

Well, we’re here to help. We’ve brought together our fantasy baseball analysts to determine the players you should be looking to sell-high and some key players to target in buy-low situations.

Buy Low

Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pittsburgh

Well, well, look at you, the discerning buyer who always wants a good deal. You walk into a used car lot to buy the 2015 Scion xB that you’ve been eyeing; you want a deal. See that $1 used clothing at the neighbor’s garage sale? Yep, you offered 25 cents because you want a deal. Well, you have come to the right place because, man, have I got a deal for you.

That deal’s name is Bryan Reynolds.

Reynolds has been bad during the first half (two thirds?). I don’t want to dwell on just how bad he’s been because that could risk talking you out of this good deal. However, I’ll admit that he has been extremely disappointing by batting just .225 with only 10 homers while striking out at nearly a career-worst 27%. Despite the negativity, there’s room to be hopeful for the second half.

History and batted ball metrics tell me that Reynolds has a good chance to turn his season around. First, we’re talking about a player who has never hit below .262 (ignoring the shortened 2020 season) and has a career average of .271. Second, check out his advanced metrics. His average exit velocity of 91.5 mph is the highest of his career. His 10.7% barrel rate is the second highest of his career. Finally, his hard-hit rate (48.4%) is the highest of his career and five percentage points greater than his 2024 rate. Add it altogether and we have a hitter with a good track record who is hitting the ball as hard – or harder – than ever. Acquire Reynolds now for pennies on the dollar and reap the rewards for the rest of the season!

Dylan Crews – OF – Washington

Crews has been out with an oblique injury since May, but according to Mark Zuckerman of MASN, the young right-fielder threw from the outfield for the first time last Wednesday and is expected to finally return from the 10-day IL, soon, possibly in about a week or two.

Admittedly, Crews was not exactly setting the world on fire prior to sustaining the injury, posting a lackluster .196/.266/.354 slash line in 45 games, but despite the struggles, the 23-year-old still managed to rack up 7 homers and 11 steals during that time frame. Also, if one examines the youngster’s numbers in the minors, he produced an overall batting average of .270 and an OBP of .342, so the hope is for him to become at least around a .260 hitter once he truly becomes accustomed to major league pitching.

In the meantime, particularly for managers in need of steals, the former 2nd overall pick should be able to help, sooner rather than later, and as a result of his prolonged absence, and the low batting average prior to the injury, Crews’ price is probably lower now than it will ever be. I suggest trying to acquire him now before he makes his long-awaited return, especially in dynasty formats.

Luis Robert Jr. – OF – Chicago (A)

A true buy low candidate, it’s hard to get worse than Robert Jr.’s .190 average and .600 OPS, especially with an offense as bad as the White Sox. Thankfully for Robert Jr. and his fantasy owners, an inevitable trade away from the south side will throw a lifeline to his season, both from a team and personal level.

Elite bat speed and his improved chase and walk rates offer a limitless celling for a new club, especially when considering his top tier speed, the ridiculous stolen base pace before injury and good defense. It’s not just the enormous difference in average to xBA, slugging to xSLG, or wOBA to xwOBA, but the deadline will provide ample opportunities for an improved supporting cast to see him take advantage of pitchers more aggressive approach to him.

I’d imagine Robert Jr. wouldn’t cost more than a bottom tier pitcher in most leagues, but with a trade to the Mets, Dodgers, Phillies or Astros, Robert will have the resources to turn into a league winning fantasy superstar at little cost.

Andrew Vaughn – 1B/OF – Milwaukee

I’ll give you one guess as to whom leads all qualified hitters in the difference between their expected wOBA and their actual mark. Admittedly, it’s a bit of lazy analysis but sometimes it’s illustrative enough to draw your attention anyway. In this case, it’s notable for a trio of reasons:

1) That there’s a reasonable margin between Vaughn in first place at a -0.075 difference and Juan Soto in second at -0.069. He hasn’t just been unlucky, he’s been very very unlucky.

2) Vaughn’s now plying his trade for a different team than the one he put up these numbers for

3) Despite the brutal first half, Vaughn’s expected numbers were actually the highest of his career

4) Even with the sluggish to outright anemic start he had to the season, Vaughn was showcasing a career-best 13.3% barrel rate with a 48.3% hard-hit rate that pushed his xBA to .263, his xwOBA to .330, and his xSLG to .471 – numbers that would have certainly kept him in pinstripes had they come to fruition.

Between the rebound potential from his metrics under the hood and, presumptively, a newfound drive after being traded for the first time in their career, Vaughn could end up being an astute buy low for managers in leagues as shallow as 12-teams if everything breaks right.

Logan Gilbert – SP – Seattle

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: stud pitcher suffers an injury in-season, misses nearly seven weeks of gameplay and comes back looking worse than he did prior to his injury. It happens almost every single year. One (or more) of the top 10 starters suffers some sort of a not-season-ending injury and when they emerge, fresh off of the injured list, they look somewhat worse than they did before the injury.

Gilbert has seemingly been one of those cases…if you aren’t paying much attention. He made six starts before he was injured and has made six starts since he’s returned off of the IL; he struck out seven or more batters in five of his first six starts and in four of his second six starts (and has struck out a batter or more per inning in 10 of his 12 starts, total). He has struggled a bit with walks (2.64 BB/9) and home runs (1.76 HR/9) since he’s returned from injury, but he has a career walk rate under 2 BB/9 and a home run rate of 1.18 HR/9, so I trust in both of those to come down.

What’s been most fascinating is the rise in strikeouts, even though he is throwing all of his pitches slower than he did in previous seasons. He has the highest chase rate of his five year career (34.8%), the highest whiff rate of his career (35%) and the highest strikeout rate of his career (35.3%; 12.98 K/9), while also having the lowest contact rate of his career. And here’s the thing, all of those numbers have been improving year over year for three years, before making a significant jump this year.

All of his ERA estimators are at 3.01 or lower, he’s cut out a cutter and is throwing his slider, four-seam fastball and splitter more often than ever and has found more success with his curveball even though he is throwing it less. Gilbert has a track record as a top 10-15 starter who can probably be traded for much cheaper. Grab him where you can (try to pay like top 75 to 100 for him if you can) and reap the second half benefits.

Sell High

Kris Bubic – SP/RP – Kansas City

This one pains me because I have some shares of Bubic and wouldn’t want my competitors to see this info. However, the fine SportsEthos people want my opinion of a sell-high, so I give you… Kris Bubic.

Do you recall last year? Bubic began the season on the IL while still rehabbing after his 2023 Tommy John surgery. The Royals finally activated him just before the All-Star break and restricted him to a relief role to limit his innings. He pitched just 30 innings but was outstanding! He had his career-best velocity, strikeout rate and ERA.

Bubic returned to his starter’s role this season and has been surprisingly excellent as much of last year’s success has carried over into 2025. Yes, his strikeout rate and velocity are a little down from last year’s numbers but they’re still better than any other year in his career. Bubic has been good to fantasy managers by bringing seven wins, a 2.48 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. So what’s the catch? It’s his innings pitched. Bubic has already thrown over 108 innings. That’s much more than what he threw in 2023 and 2024 combined. He is approaching his career max of 130 innings set in 2021. He’s on pace for 180-190 innings but I doubt the Royals will let him go that far. Once they fall out of the wild card race (and they WILL), there’s little incentive to keep piling up the wear and tear on his rebuilt elbow. Sell Bubic now while his excellent first half and All-Star appearance are fresh on people’s minds.

Jack Wilson – SS – Athletics

Let me begin by saying I am a big fan of Jacob Wilson’s game and his unique juxtaposition of individual skills. After falling a bit flat in his debut during the 2024 season with only a .250 average and .629 OPS in just over 100 plate appearance, Wilson has suddenly become everything he was advertised as while rising through the A’s minor league system.

If you’re not familiar with Wilson, know that he is among the elite of the elite when it comes to making contact and avoiding strikeouts. We’re talking borderline modern day Tony Gwynn numbers here, as Wilson is running an overall contact rate of 91.2% this season with just 28 strikeouts in 366 plate appearances (7.7%) while whiffing just 9.7% of the time when he swings at a ball. Both his strikeout rate and whiff rate sit in the 99th-percentile of all hitters and his contact rate falls behind just Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez in the rankings.

That’s the positive side of his extremism, but there is an opposite end equally extreme as well. For as skilled as he is in quality of contact, his batted ball metrics lack the numbers required to believe Wilson will be able to continue at the rate he has been in the second half of the season. Wilson has managed just a 3rd-percentile hard-hit rate, pairing nicely with a 4th-percentile average exit velocity ranking. It may or may not be directly related to his 1st-percentile bat speed but tack on a 6th-percentile barrel rate and it paints a clear picture of a player who is outlandishly talented at getting his bat on the ball but not so good at controlling where it goes.

To that point, Wilson’s expected metrics (which are largely underpinned by a player’s number of hard-hit balls) point to some noteworthy regression looming:

Considering Wilson has put up just nine home runs and five steals, his elevated average is doing the heavy majority of the lifting in his fantasy profile. He’s also sporting a .342 BABIP despite a fairly low line drive rate of 20.3%, so that figure could fall back to earth as well. If one does – or both do – watch out! This is a talented player who will be a lot of fun to watch for years to come but I don’t want anything to do with him in the second half of 2025.

Andrew Abbott – SP – Cincinnati

It is difficult to explain what is behind the stellar season Abbott has enjoyed thus far. In 91.1 innings pitched he has amassed an 8-1 record with a 2.07 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. These are outstanding ratios to be sure, but the left-hander’s 3.78 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, prior to 2025, naturally lead to some skepticism as to the sustainability of these improved statistics.

In addition, when one takes a look under the hood, though his numbers are still good, Abbott does appear to be somewhat outperforming some of his underlying stats. The lefty has a .321 xBA, .291 xwOBA, 3.51 FIP (4.12 xFIP) and 4.03 SIERA, all of which are more in line with the previous seasons’ ERA. Given these numbers, plus the fact that he still throws his below average 92 mph 4-seam fastball a whopping 47% of the time, there is bound to be some upcoming regression for the young hurler in the second half.

Now, I’m not suggesting fantasy managers should sell Abbott for just anything, but if a manager can get back, say, a legit top-20ish starting pitcher for him, I would smash accept on that in a hurry.

Jeremy Pena – SS – Houston

Peña’s first career All Star season has been in the works for a few seasons now after a sensational 2022 postseason as a rookie, and his bat has finally caught up to his outstanding glove. He’s now got an .867 OPS with 11 homers and 15 steals, enough to make him a clear top five fantasy shortstop, as many long hoped he’d be.

Despite incremental improvements to his chase rate and quality of contact numbers, his overall offensive profile is still similar enough to his career norms, and I’d happily cash out on top 5 SS value, trade for Corey Seager and a quality pitcher, and allow his regression to happen with another owner.

Zack Littell – SP – Tampa Bay

Littell’s calling card as a starter has been one of a guy who gets a decent amount of strikeouts, rarely walks anyone and limits home runs.

Unfortunately for him, his strikeout rate has cratered, dropping nearly two full strikeouts per nine innings pitched, his home run rate has spiked thanks to pitching in a a spring training stadium for home games, but hey, he’s not walking really anyone.

And don’t be fooled by his 3.56 ERA. His xERA, xFIP, FIP and SIERA all sit at 4.18 or higher, namely because of a very lucky 87.3% strand rate and a well below league average .252 BABIP, both career bests. Further clouding the solid-so-far season of Littell is an 11.6% barrel rate, 42.4% hard-hit rate, 82.1%/88.4% contact/z-contact rate, 9.2% swinging strike rate and all four of his primary pitches performing worse this year than they did last.

If you can move Littell for a top 40 to 50 arm you trust more, make the move. I don’t expect his second half to live up to his first half, which wasn’t that great outside of a very low WHIP and eight wins (top 18 in WHIP and top 27 in wins).

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