Draft Drop Off Points, Position by Position

  • Effective draft strategy goes well beyond player evaluation, especially when coping with the intricacies of various league and roster formats, and the year to year differences in league-wide strength at different positions. While player rankings do an adequate job assessing individual value, they don’t take into account where the large drop offs in quality or value lie with each position, which is ultimately just as important in draft planning. Today, I’ll go through the drop off points for each position, with the idea that you should shoot to get a top {insert drop off point} in each position, and if you fail to get one, wait for a late round option.

    Catcher
    4 (single catcher format)
    9 (two catcher format)
    Cal Raleigh isn’t worth his mid second round ADP, so I’m honing in on the trio of Ben Rice, William Contreras and Shea Langeliers, all of whom hold an ADP of just after 50. I’d prefer the three in that order, who should all combine premium volume with big offensive upside, which isn’t as doable after the top 4 go.

    I’m not enamored with the value of Hunter Goodman or Agustin Ramirez, but Drake Baldwin is worth reaching significantly ahead of his 87 ADP, and Salvador Perez and Will Smith can offer premium volume and quality respectively, even with some fantasy flaws. The drop off to Yainer Diaz at 10 is big, so you’ll really want to grab at least one catcher in the top nine.

    First Base
    14
    You could argue that the drop off at six after Rafael Devers is significant, but I still believe in the viability of Freddie Freeman, Vinnie Pasquantino and others, so I’m putting the cut off after Yandy Diaz at 14. Diaz himself is more of a average/RBI play for categories leagues, but himself and Michael Busch are significantly better than the platoon options that follow 50 picks later. In an ideal world, try and grab one of the top five (I like the value of Matt Olson at 50), but if not, mid round selections are nice at first base.

    Second Base
    4

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