2025 Fantasy Baseball Division Preview: AL West

  • To say 2024 was a down year for the American League West would be an understatement. They were the worst division in all of baseball in 2024, finishing 43 games under .500. Two of the three worst teams in the American League were in the West, the Athletics and Angels. Brent Rooker of the Athletics came out of nowhere to finish 15th on the Fangraphs player rater, the highest of anybody in the division. Wyatt Langford, the rookie outfielder for the Rangers finished 101st on the player rater and also received AL Rookie of the Year votes as did Athletics closer Mason Miller. 

    But enough about 2024, let’s take a look at the teams going into the 2025 season. 

    Athletics 

    Key Offseason Additions: 

    The Athletics did something out of character during the offseason, they spent big money on a free-agent, signing RHP Luis Severino to a three-year $67 million deal. He should anchor the pitcher staff as the ace. The only other notable addition the Athletics made was sending pitcher Joe Boyle to the Rays for starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs. A late signing, the Athletics added former Ranger José Leclerc to their bullpen on a one-year $10 million contract.

    Key Offseason Losses: 

    The Athletics only lost one player who had any fantasy relevance in 2024; Joe Boyle, who made 10 starts in 2024. .

    Pitching Preview: 

    It will be interesting to see how the new ballpark in Sacramento plays out, will it be a hitter’s park or a pitcher’s park? The scuttlebutt early on thinks it will be a hitter’s park, and if so, it will deflate the fantasy value of the Athletics pitchers. Going from one of the best pitcher’s parks to the unknown is not a good sign for their hurlers. 

    Looking at this rotation, the A’s are going to have to outslug their opponents and win a lot of 10-9 type games in 2025. This could be the worst rotation in the American League outside of Chicago. 

    Severino should be the ace of the staff after signing the biggest contract in club history. But he is by no means an anchor to a fantasy staff. Steamer projections have him making 31 starts, finishing with a 4.24 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a 13.3% K-BB rate over 182 innings. In January NFBC DC drafts, he is being drafted as the 89th starting pitcher, going in the 21st round. 

    After coming off Tommy John surgery in 2023, Springs made seven starts for the Rays in 2024. If he can return to his pre-TJ surgery form, he could be the best starter for the Athletics. He is projected to make 26 starts and have a 3.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 149 strikeouts in 154 innings. What could hurt Springs, especially if the new ballpark is truly a hitter’s park, is his 39.8% groundball rate, below the league average of 42%. Lots of fly balls in a hitter’s park is no bueno.

    JP Sears is slated to be the third starter for the Athletics, but is only viable in AL-only leagues or leagues with a deep bench. Projections have him taking the hill 31 times, recording a 4.61 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with a 7.35 K/9. Not a lot to bank on there for fantasy managers. 

    The Athletics have Joey Estes and Mitch Spence rounding out the rotation and neither are viable in anything but deep AL-Only leagues. Both are going outside the top 600 in January NFBC drafts. 

    If the Athletics can get through six innings with a lead, the bullpen is the antithesis of their rotation. Closer Mason Miller is one of MLBs best closers, the fireballer’s fastball averaged 100.9 mph in 2024. Steamer has him projected to finish with a 28.4% K-BB rate, the best in MLB. Tack on 30 saves, 2.57 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and you have one of the top closers in the game. He also has a fly ball problem that  will test how the new home will play. with a 43% fly ball rate (league average is 38%). Despite this, he should be drafted as a top three closer. 

    José Leclerc becomes the top setup guy in the pen, coming off his worst season in three years with the Rangers. Projected to have a serviceable 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but walks can be a bugaboo for Leclerc. Slated to have an 11.1% walk rate (league average is 8.2%) can cause some angst for fantasy managers. He should get the opportunity to get a few saves and should lead the Athletics in holds in 2025.

    Hitting Preview: Like the pitching, it will be interesting to see how the ballpark plays for hitters. A lot of people are saying it will be a hitter’s park, especially with the warm weather in central California in the summer months. As of now, the Athletics’ lineup appears to be top heavy, with a really good top of the lineup and a meh bottom half of the lineup. 

    Infielders:

    Tyler Soderstrom is penciled in to be the starting first baseman. Roster Resource on Fangraphs has him batting fifth with good power production, but not much batting average. They have him projected to hit .233 with 26 homers and 73 RBIs in 482 at-bats. That is  serviceable as a corner infield option, with those projections he should be drafted around pick 300.

    Zack Gelof should be the everyday second baseman for the Athletics and projections have him for 603 at-bats, with 21  homers and 27 stolen bases with a .227 batting average. A 20-20 guy is valuable but the .227 average is a drain. I don’t see him as a starting second baseman on many fantasy rosters unless in an AL-Only or deep league, but he is a viable option for a middle infield spot, probably around pick 250.

    Gio Urshela should get the bulk of starts at third base and rookie shortstop Jacob Wilson are AL-Only relevant. Neither are projected for double digits in homers or steals, so are waiver wire fodder in mixed leagues. Wilson has an ADP of 358 in NFBC drafts, but a guy projected to hit seven homers and get three steals is not fantasy worthy.  

    Outfielders/DH:

    Lawrence Butler burst onto the MLB scene in 2024, hitting .262 with 22 homers and stealing 18 bases in 412 at-bats. All of his underlying stats show these numbers are legit, he is projected to hit .256 with 29 homers, 93 runs, 78 RBIs and 21 stolen bases., not bad for a projected leadoff hitter. He is a top 25 outfielder and top 75 pick in my mind, and I think with his speed, he can hit better than .247.

    Center fielder JJ Bleday had a solid 2024 season and looks to build on that in 2025. Projections have him hitting .231 with 24 homers, 80 runs, 79 RBIs and six steals, good enough for an OF4/OF5 in most formats. That puts him around pick 275.

    Seth Brown should be the strongside platoon player in left field. Last season he had 400 plate appearances, 372 of those against right handed pitchers. Projections for the 2025 season have him hitting .237 with 14 homers and four stolen bases. Platoon players have little value in most leagues, unless playing in a deep league where you can stream him in weeks the Athletics face all right handed starters. Like Brown, his platoon partners of Esteury Ruiz and Miguel Andujar are not fantasy relevant in 2025.

    Brent Rooker is utility only in most fantasy formats but he is one of a handful of utility only players worth rostering in all formats. Back-to-back 30 homer seasons are reflected in his 2025 projections with a .247 average, 37 homers, 93 runs and 94 RBIs. With no idea how the new ballpark plays out, those numbers could even be better. He is definitely a top 50 pick, and there have been reports during the offseason he could play enough games in the outfield to gain outfield eligibility during the 2025 season.. 

    Catcher:

    Shea Langeliers is the starter behind the plate coming off a career year in 2024 where he hit 29 home runs. A catcher who is slated to bat cleanup and projected to hit 26 home runs and have 72 RBIs is really valuable on a fantasy team. A .230 average will be a drain on your batting average, so he should be rostered on a team with a good batting average base. That puts him inside the top 10 catcher list and an ADP near 125.

    Fantasy Breakout – Pitcher: Jeffrey Springs, if he can stay healthy, could be a top 30 starting pitcher, ballpark dependent. He was converted to a starter in 2022 and made 25 starts (and 8 relief outings), finishing with a 2.46 ERA (11th best of pitchers with more than 120 innings), 1.07 WHIP and a 20.6% K-BB rate. He made three starts in 2023, striking out 24 in 16 innings, doing it with an above average fastball and elite slider per stuff plus metrics. In seven starts last season, his slider and change were above average but his fastball had a stuff plus score of 77 (average is 100).  If he can gain command of his fastball and maintain the quality of the slider and changeup, he could be an SP2/SP3 in 2026 drafts. 

    Fantasy Breakout – Hitter: Tyler Soderstrom could be a breakout hitter if he gets full-time at-bats. In 2024 he hit nine homers in 189 at-bats. That is 28-30 homers over a full 600 at bat season, that will play in today’s game. He has an above average walk rate and a lower than average BABIP which indicate his numbers should have been better. He hits the ball hard, a  48.9% hard hit rate and 14.6% barrel rate are both well above league average. He is a left-hander so he is a candidate for a platoon player, but his OPS+ was a tad bit better against lefties than righties in 2024, so he looks like he could get every day at-bats. 

    Fantasy Breakout – Prospect: Brady Basso had some outstanding numbers at AAA in 2024 before making four starts in the majors. Through 93 minor league innings in 2024, he had a 21.2% K-BB rate with 109 strikeouts in 93 innings. Basso made four starts, seven total appearances with the Athletics in 2024, with a 3.46 xERA and 15.1% K-BB rate. Steamer has him projected with a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 wHIP and 16.4% K-BB rate, which would make him an attractive in season pickup. 

    Houston Astros  

    Key Offseason Additions: The Astros made a couple of major moves in the offseason, the biggest being signing first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year $60 million dollar deal. They swung a deal with the Cubs, sending Kyle Tucker to the Cubs for third baseman Isaac Paredes and pitcher Hayden Wesneski.

    Key Offseason Losses: With all the losses the Astros suffered in the offseason, it will be a new look Astros team in 2025. Tucker left in the trade to the Cubs and Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi, all declared for free agency. A late offseason trade sent former closer Ryan Pressly to the Cubs. There is talk of Bregman returning to the Astros, we’ll have to wait and see if that transpires or not.. 

    Pitching Preview: The Astros have a solid starting rotation, the second best in the division behind the Mariners. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr, both coming off surgeries in 2023, could return in April to bolster the staff.

    Framber Valdez sits atop the rotation, the ground ball machine is as steady as they come, averaging 30 starts and 191.2 innings over the last three seasons. Steamer projections have him making 29 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 177 strikeouts in 185 innings. I think the ERA and WHIP are both a bit high, he has not had a WHIP over 1.16 in the last three seasons and two out of the last three years his ERA has been under 3. I think he is a top 12 starting pitcher and a top 50 pick.

    After a terrible April in 2024 that ended with a 9.78 ERA, Hunter Brown turned it around and finished with a flourish, ending with a 3.49 ERA (3.31 xERA) and 179 strikeouts in 170 innings. Projections in 2025 have him finishing with similar numbers, a 3.70 ERA and 1.25 WHP and 16.7% K-BB rate. He should be a top 30 starting pitcher and a top 100 pick.

    One of the biggest surprises in all of baseball last year was Ronel Blanco. He burst on the scene as a 30-year old pitcher, including spinning a no-hitter against the Blue Jays. He did it with a lot of luck in 2024, his xERA of 4.00 was well above his 2.80 mark, and a .220 BABIP is well below the league average of .289. Projections for 2025 have that luck baked into his numbers, a 4.36 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 158 strikeouts in 160 innings. I think he checks in as an SP5 with an ADP around 200.

    Spencer Arrighetti finished the 2024 season strong with a 2.72 ERA over August and September. His projections have him making 26 starts with a 4.39 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and a 3.9 BB/9. It seems like fantasy owners are high on Arrighetti in the NFBC drafts in January with a 207 ADP. They are banking on him pitching well above those projections. 

    Wesneski could be a placeholder until McCullers and Luis Garcia return to the rotation. 

    Josh Hader leads a pretty good bullpen as the closer. He is projected to chalk up 33 saves, a 3.16 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 24% K-BB rate. He is still a top three closer and top 40 pick.

    Bryan Abreu should get a handful of saves as he recorded 38 holds in 2024. The Astros should still win a lot of games and he is the primary guy to draft in holds leagues.  

    Hitting Preview: The Astros lost two important pieces in the middle of their lineup during the offseason, trading away right fielder Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman to free agency (although there is talk the Astros are trying to re-sign him. They have a solid top six hitters in the lineup and have added Christian Walker in the cleanup spot.  

    Infielders:

    Newcomer Christian Walker should enjoy hitting in the new stadium with the Crawford boxes in left field. Steamer projections have him with 30 homers, 81 runs and 93 RBIs and a .244 average. With an above average pull%, I see him beating the homer projection playing 81 games in Daiken Park (formerly Minute Maid). With Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez batting in front of him, I see 100+ RBIs as well. He is in the 5-7 ranking for first baseman and a top 80-90 hitter in 2025 drafts.

    The ageless Jose Altuve leads off and will play second base, although there has been some chatter with him moving to left field if the Astros re-sign Bregman. In his age 34 season in 2024, he put together his first 20/20 season since 2017, hitting 20 homers and getting 22 steals. He is showing signs of decline, his walk rate has dropped and his strikeout rate is rising. Projections have him hitting .268, which would be a career low, 23 homers. 19 stolen bases, 97 runs and 72 RBIs. I don’t buy the drop in average, and those great counting stats hitting at the top of a good lineup makes him the top second baseman in my mind and a top 60 pick. 

    Isaac Paredes, the prototypical pull hitter (53.7% pull rate) should flourish hitting in Houston and deposit plenty of baseballs in the Crawford boxes. Roster Resource has him hitting second between Altuve and Alvarez, a prime lineup spot. Steamer has him hitting .244 with 25 home runs, 83 runs and 78 RBIs, that should make him a starting third baseman in most formats. I would put his ADP at around 180-200. If the Astros do sign Bregman, Paredes could move to second base and Altuve to left field. 

    The Astros are set at shortstop for a while with Jeremy Pena manning the position. After hitting 15 homers and 20 stolen bases in 2024, his projections have him going 18/16 with a solid .264 average. Because shortstop is so deep in 2025 drafts. I think he is a good middle infield option in 12 team leagues and a borderline starting shortstop in 15 team leagues. That puts him at ADP 160ish. 

    Outfielders/DH:

    As good as the infield is, the outfield is at the opposite end of the spectrum. As of now, the outfield consists of Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon. None of these are fantasy relevant in my mind, McCormick has the lowest ADP in NFBC drafts at 459, which is not even a reserve pick in a 15-team draft. 

    Yordan Alvarez is outfield eligible but reports out of Houston say he should see more time at DH to try to keep him healthy. He played in a career high 147 games last year, playing through a lot of nagging injuries. Steamer projects him to play in 134 games with a .301 average, 35 homers, 93 runs and 100 RBIs. He is going in the second round in most drafts. He has averaged 135 games the last four seasons, if that number was closer to 150 he would be a first-round pick. 

    Catcher:

    The Astros have the best young catcher in the game in Yainer Diaz, sorry Adley Rutschman fans. A catcher who gets 600 plate appearances, hits in the .290 range with 20ish home runs is so valuable in fantasy. After homering 23 times in 355 at-bats in 2023, his home run total dropped to 16 in 585 at-bats in 2024. His hard hit rate went up last year but his barrel rate went down, as did his flyball rate. Hard hit ground balls are not that productive. If he can hit more fly balls, he should surpass his projections of a .280 average with 21 homers and 78 RBIs. He should be the second catcher selected in most drafts and be picked somewhere in the 50’s.

    Fantasy Breakout – Pitcher: Can a player break out twice? Right handed pitcher Luis Garcia shined in his first full season in 2021, starting 28 games and ending the campaign with a 3.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and an 18.5% walk rate. His 2022 season was not quite as good as 2021, but still a good starting pitcher. He made just 6 starts in 2023 before having thoracic outlet surgery causing him to miss the rest of 2023 and all of 2024. Projections don’t really like him so I think there is a “rust” factor built into them. Just 28 and the injury was not arm related, I don’t see why he can’t have a 2021/2022 type season. Projections have him throwing 121 innings with a 4.22 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 119 strikeouts. 

    Fantasy Breakout – Hitter: Third baseman Shay Whitcomb could be a breakout hitter for the Astros. A fifth-round draft pick in 2020, he hit 35 home runs in the minors in 2023 and 25 last year with a .293/.389/.530 slash line. In 40 MLB at-bats last year, he hit .220 (.278 xBA) with a 10.9% walk rate and a 17.4% strikeout rate. Small sample size I know, but the pedigree is there for a breakout. His NFBC ADP is 376, so a streamer option in 12 team leagues and a reserve pick in 15 teamers. 

    Fantasy Breakout – Prospect: Outfielder Jacob Melton is the top prospect in the Astros Organization and could be a breakout in 2025. In 2024 He hit .253 in stops at AA/AAA with 15 homers and 30 stolen bases, following up a 23/46 season in 2023 and 18/41 campaign in 2022. With the underwhelming talent in the Astros outfield, Melton could get a shot to crack the Astros lineup in 2025.


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