December 31, 2022, 7:02 pm
Bills (-115) @ Bengals (+1) : O/U 49.5
Before the season started, this game during the fantasy championship weekend projected to make-or-break the title aspirations for fantasy GMs everywhere. It was also targeted by the Best Ball community aggressively in drafts for stacking purposes. There are a bunch of high-end players that will influence the outcomes of fantasy championships. Not only does it have massive implications for fantasy football, but it has those same implications on the NFL playoff race. The Bills (12-3) need a win in order to fend off the Chiefs for the first-round bye, while the Bengals (11-4) are hopeful to chase down and jump both of those squads. The Bills locked up their division weeks ago, while the Bengals will secure a home playoff game and their division with a win on Monday.
Josh Allen: Fantasy GMs have been riding Allen all season and there is no reason to stop. He ranks as the QB2 on the year (less than two points behind Patrick Mahomes for first), including averaging over 30.0 fantasy points as the QB1 through the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. In a game that projects to be a high-scoring affair, Allen has a clear path to finish the week and season as the QB1 with a plus matchup on Monday night.
Devin Singletary & James Cook: Singletary is the RB19 on the season and the RB14 through the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. Cook was about to get more work last week against the Bears, thanks largely to the game being a blowout. Singletary is substantially more appealing for fantasy GMs and is worth starting on most rosters, while Cook is a fingers crossed RB4 as fantasy GMs will be relying on a big play or touchdown to get a quality return.
Stefon Diggs: As Allen goes, so does Diggs. The two are always locked in and it shows on the field. Two of his three past weeks have been rough for fantasy GMs, but outside of those games, Diggs is the WR1 this season. He has surpassed 100 receptions, 1,300 yards and has received double-digit touchdowns this year. If fantasy GMs were able to survive his poor semifinal performance, they would be in for a treat in their title match.
Gabe Davis: Davis has made progress on his disappointing season over the past four weeks, tallying at least 9.5 fantasy points in three of those games. He is the boom-or-bust poster boy, which he has put on display dating back to the playoffs last season. With Davis playing on Monday night, he has the potential to execute the ultimate comeback in the fantasy championship thanks to his great matchup.
Dawson Knox: Knox was in hibernation until Week 14, where he abruptly burst back onto the fantasy scene. He ranks as the TE5 over his past three games, averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game and has earned his way into starting lineups on title weekend. He will definitely be a scary option, but in a game that has the second-highest over under of the weekend, his scoring ceiling gets elevated.
Joe Burrow: The Bengals are well known for their aggressive passing attack and last week was no different. Burrow threw for three first-half touchdowns and finished with 52 attempts and 375 yards, earning a QB3 finish. He sits as the QB4 on the season and has been averaging 23.41 fantasy points per game. The Bills defense is not the best of matchups, but in a game that should be high scoring, Burrow should have no problems finishing in the top-5 in the fantasy championship.
Joe Mixon: Mixon has been fine this year, but has only scored two touchdowns outside of his four-score game against the Panthers. He tallied nearly 25% of his 16 weeks of fantasy points in that game alone and without it, he drops from the RB11 all the way to the RB22. Mixon’s usage in the passing game has truly saved his value this year, which keeps him safely in the RB2 conversation this weekend. He has a safe floor thanks to at least 16 touches over each of his last three games, including 17 targets during that span.
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase’s explosive nature allows him to be in the argument for the top-WR option each week and the matchup with the Bills is no different. The Bills have recently allowed lines of 3-114-1, 9-69-1, 6-78, 6-60 and 9-122-1 to Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Amon-Ra St.Brown. These numbers allow us to project Chase to have a monster game and should provide faith for his fantasy GMs who need a big performance on Monday.
Tee Higgins: The outlook for Higgins is roughly the same as it is for Chase. He is easily the WR1 on almost every other team in the NFL and has been dominant this year, earning a WR11 ranking on the season. He should have a huge game against the Bills and will help lockdown many fantasy championships along the way.