December 3, 2022, 3:00 pm
Dolphins (+4) @ 49ers (-195) O/U 46.5
Key storylines/What to watch
The biggest storyline to watch heading into this matchup is the battle between arguably the best defensive line in football going up against an explosive offense that will be without their starting RT while Terron Armstead is doubtful to start at LT with a pectoral injury. If Armstead doesn’t suit up, Tua and the Dolphins’ explosive offense may struggle to move the ball against one of the best defensive units in football. In addition to the Dolphins offensive line issues, the Niners are expected to get back DL Arik Armstead to bolster an already elite defensive line.
On the Niners offense, they may also be without their top tackle with Trent Williams listed as questionable heading into Sunday. His availability will definitely be worth monitoring as it would downgrade both the pass and run game for the Niners. The big question is if there are too many key skill position players for Jimmy Garoppolo to get the ball too that they all carry a lower fantasy ceiling. However, they might have one less option on Sunday with Deebo Samuel a question mark after not practicing on Thursday.
WRs Jaylen Waddle & Tyreek Hill
Let’s not overthink starting the best WR duo in all of fantasy this season with Hill the WR5 on the season by averages in 0.5 point PPR formats while Waddle ranks eighth in average fantasy production. They’ll both face a strong Niners defense whose strength comes in stopping the run. They are no-brainer, must-start options.
WRs Brandon Aiyuk & Deebo Samuel
While the amount of big fantasy performers the Niners have likely lowered the fantasy ceilings of all options, Aiyuk has been the team’s most consistent receiver for Jimmy Garoppolo and should provide the safest floor even if Deebo Samuel presents a higher ceiling due to dual-threat ability. That being said, Deebo does present the higher ceiling and should see more involvement in the running game with Eli Mitchell sidelined. Deebo’s the ceiling WR play while Aiyuk presents the safer floor.
RB Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season in part because of a knee injury that caused him to spend a good amount of Week 12 on the sidelines. However, he remains one of the talented and versatile RB in all of the NVL and has to be considered a must-start option across all formats even if he’s more on the low-end RB1 side of things.
QB Tua Tagovailoa
Even with a potentially hobbled offensive line, Tua remains a strong mid-tier QB1 option heading into Week 13 because of his two star WR options that we discussed above. His ability to get the ball out at one of the quickest rates in the league bodes well for this matchup as the Niners will bring the pressure, plus the Niners strength against the run means that Tua will be forced to air it out.
TE George Kittle
While the inconsistency in the passing game has been frustrating at times this season, Kittle remains one of the must-start weekly TEs in that tier below Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. The Dolphins also surrender the third-most fantasy points to opposing TEs on the season, giving us the confidence we need to start Kittle with TE1 upside in the cards for Week 13.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
Revenge-game narrative, anyone? Wilson and head coach Mike McDaniel will be facing their former team along with fellow RB Raheem Mostert. However, the revenge narrative is all the running back room has going for them as the Niners have arguably the best run defense in the league. This means Wilson is a touchdown-dependent flex play this week while Mostert should not be started across any 12-team leagues.
If you have the Niners D/ST, you are likely not going to find a better upside option on the wire, but they are in the boom/bust category this week because of the explosive option that the Dolphins present with their dynamic receiver duo combined with Tua’s ability to get the ball out quick. If the Niners defensive line dominates an injured offensive line of the Dolphins, this unit will deliver in spades. If the Dolphins’ OL can hold up for the most part, this unit could have their worst fantasy performance since their Week 8 contest vs. the Rams.
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Seahawks (-320)@ Rams (+7) O/U 40.5
Key storylines/What to watch