• With the All-Star break upon us, much of the attention in the world of fantasy basketball starts to turn to the playoffs. Not the NBA playoffs, but the fantasy postseason.

    Many leagues hold their playoffs in the month of March, starting in Week 20 on March 6th, just a week-and-a-half after games resume. Many leagues have a 3-week playoff, wrapping up at the end of Week 22 on March 26th. This prevents any fantasy playoff games from taking place in April, when teams are known to rest players for the reality playoffs or a better chance in the lottery.

    A look at the top-20 Points League players by per game average at the All-Star break yields a familiar list:

     

    Player Fantasy Points Per Game (ESPN)
    Luka Doncic 56.46
    Nikola Jokic 54.40
    Joel Embiid 54.34
    Giannis Antetokounmpo 53.34
    Anthony Davis 50.96
    LeBron James 50.58
    Jason Tatum 49.02
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 48.74
    Kevin Durant 47.34
    Damian Lillard 46.01
    Stephen Curry 45.96
    Ja Morant 45.60
    James Harden 45.34
    Pascal Siakam 44.01
    Domantas Sabonis 43.46
    Kyrie Irving 43.37
    Trae Young 43.08
    LaMelo Ball 43.01
    Julius Randle 42.71
    Tyrese Haliburton 42.31
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    But when you factor in the NBA schedule over the three weeks of fantasy playoffs (Weeks 20-22), a different list starts to emerge. Luka Doncic is no longer at the top, getting knocked off by Joel Embiid and his 11 games over the 3 week span. Embiid also leapfrogs Nikola Jokic, who is hurt by having only 2 games in the final week, something that is sure to cause anxiety for his managers.

    Also getting a big bump from his 11 games is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who vaults in value over Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Jayson Tatum. Stephen Curry, Ja Morant, and James Harden all find themselves inside the top-10 thanks to their 11 games in three weeks.

    On the other end of the spectrum, Kevin Durant’s value takes a major hit, as his 9 games in Weeks 20-22 depress his potential for points and drops him from No. 9 to No. 20 on the list (the trade from Brooklyn to Phoenix resulted in a loss of 2 games over that span for Durant). Durant is the only player with a high enough per-game average to stick in the top-20 with only 9 games on the schedule, and obviously has a knee injury to worry about on top of the schedule.

    Tyrese Haliburton and Julius Randle drop out of the top-20 when you factor in the number of games they have compared to their per-game average. Replacing them are De’Aaron Fox and Kristaps Porzingis, both of whom have 11 games in three weeks. Both Fox and Porzingis leap 10 places on the list to make it inside of the top-20.

     

    Player Total Games (Weeks 20-22) Total Potential Fantasy Points (ESPN)
    Joel Embiid 11 597.74
    Luka Doncic 10 564.60
    Nikola Jokic 10 544.00
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 11 536.14
    Giannis Antetokounmpo 10 533.40
    Anthony Davis 10 509.60
    LeBron James 10 505.80
    Stephen Curry 11 505.56
    Ja Morant 11 501.60
    James Harden 11 498.74
    Jason Tatum 10 490.20
    Domantas Sabonis 11 478.06
    Trae Young 11 473.88
    Damian Lillard 10 460.10
    Kristaps Porzingis 11 448.47
    Pascal Siakam 10 440.10
    Kyrie Irving 10 433.70
    De'Aaron Fox 11 433.51
    LaMelo Ball 10 430.10
    Kevin Durant 9 426.06
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    Of course, this list assumes all players are healthy and will play in every game on the schedule, which we all know is never the case. Many of these players sit back-to-backs and many more miss games periodically with injury or illness.

    It also assumes that they will maintain their averages, which is also not always the case. Players get hot and go cold throughout the year, and March is no exception. The NBA, and by extension our fantasy leagues, are unpredictable, but if you want to get an idea of a player’s potential points production in the 3 playoff weeks in March, then this chart will give you a look at who the top-20 players are and where they rank in relation to one another.

     

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