At some point our luck has to turn around, right? Just gross stuff, man. Hopefully we can hit some more plays today and secure a win.

Maybe to help us along the way, we should introduce our NEWEST PICK EMS CAPPER: Wyatt Wilburt. Welcome him to the fold and make sure to tail him here to see if we can start a hot streak!

Yesterday’s Results

Keith

Oh my, where do I begin? Barrett shot lights out so it looks like his heater is continuing for at least one more game. I felt pretty good about the under there and I don’t mind missing that one. Zion came on late with the assists, but they pulled some wacky stuff where they sat Jonas Valanciunas for matchup reasons, and that wasn’t anywhere near what I had projected so it didn’t work out for us. The Wolves predictably sleepwalked through what should have been an easy win, but KAT wasn’t the guy he needed to be for us. Niang was dreadful from the field in the first half and then didn’t return due to injury. Just nasty stuff lately from me, so we can only be better.

Nathan

Jalen Johnson didn’t come down with a block, but the Hawks had double-digit blocks and three starters had at least two blocks, they just weren’t named Jalen Johnson. Devin Vassell snuck over his line with a late three-pointer and Jabari Smith Jr. had another big day on the boards vs. OKC and Deandre Ayton was well on his way to dogging the Bam Adebayo matchup. Ayton had 12 at halftime before landing awkwardly on top of Kevin Love, hurting his hand and not returning the after the break. Thanks to Underdog’s newer injury coverage policy, we got a refund for the slip and a free square the following day.

Underdog

Keith

Giannis Antetokounmpo O27.5 pts

Current line: 28.0 and would play

We’re trying this again. It was 29.5 last time when these exact two teams faced off, but it was ruined by a blowout. We need the Hornets to keep this close and I’m hoping they can manage it as they’ve been playing great defense as of late. Perhaps the Bucks are hitting their stride, but I’ll take the few-point discount here.

Brook Lopez O5.0 rebounds

Another one where the line on sportsbooks is implying we should have a great opportunity to push here with minimal risk. The Hornets are terrible against centers and I’m hoping they can keep it close. If they can, we should see some gaudy numbers from BroLo.

Jalen Johnson O17.5 pts

Current line: 16.5 and I’d play it, obviously

This one has shifted against me and I simply don’t get it. Two games without Trae Young and he’s sailed over with 21 & 22 points. One of those teams was Orlando, so don’t tell me the defense of the Nets is a factor here. The Nets are playing terrible basketball at the moment, and the Hawks are not exactly killing it either, so this should be a close matchup and we should see maximum Jalen Johnson in this one.

Josh Giddey O3.5 asts

Current line: Same but only 0.85x and I would NOT play it there.

I debated this one quite a bit, but ultimately it’s a good play. The Thunder should be incentivized to play the fresh-legged Giddey more in this game against the Spurs if they jump out to a big lead, and it’s a weak defense that gives up plenty of assists to the opposition. Gordon Hayward may be eating into his playing time, but games like these have Giddey written all over it.

Devin Booker O5.5 asts

Current line: Same but 0.85x and I WOULD play it.

I don’t know why they keep setting this line here, but no Bradley Beal and they’re playing against a team that really struggles to guard the pick-and-roll. He’s gone over in 33/48 games (68.8%) this season and the matchup plus missing Beal makes this a smash for me.

Underdog YTD Record: 240-214-15

Wyatt

Jalen Williams O9.5 rebs + asts

This line just seems low. I’ll discuss it below but I expect a big Chet versus Wemby game. That leaves Williams tonight as a guy who grabs boards and pushes the ball in transition, with a high game total of 238, he should be able to get after it.

Victor Wembanyama O33.5 pts + rebs

Spurs and Thunder is my favorite game of the night for the reasons that Chet and Wemby will surely be going at each other all night. These guys do not like each other. Last game against OKC, Wemby had 24 and 12 and has seemingly only gotten better as the season has gone on. Expect more of the same.

Mikal Bridges U31.5 PRA

It’s no surprise that Mikal and the Nets have been beyond awful lately. I’m not expecting that to change against a Hawks team that is suddenly playing better and in a matchup he could see a guy like Jalen Johnson guarding him. This line is simply too high.

Josh Hart O28.5 PRA

Don’t look now but Hart has done a solid job being the third-ish option on a banged-up Knicks team. He’s also cleared this mark in the past 4 games. An added bonus here is that Brunson is iffy to play with a sore neck. If he’s ruled out or even just hobbled, Hart could see himself with the ball in his hands even more than usual.

Franz Wagner O9.5 rebs + asts

Love this play as the Magic are on two days’ rest and get a Jazz team that be nearing a full-on tank very soon as they’ve dropped their last 4. Wings like Miles Bridges and Jalen Johnson (yes him again) have feasted on the glass and assist-wise against this team in just the past week or so.

Nathan

Collin Sexton O18.0 Points

Current line: 18.5 Points which I would still comfortably play.

Collin Sexton is a prolific scorer for the Jazz, averaging some of the best per-36 scoring numbers (26 ppg) in the league despite having relatively capped minutes thanks to the Jazz’ rotations. Sexton has cleared this line in 30-of-37 games and gets a great matchup with the Orlando Magic tonight. The Magic are a good defensive team, but still they surrender the third-most points to opposing guards on the season. Sexton should handily clear this line, assuming he gets near a full workload tonight.

Jalen Suggs O10.5 Points

On the other side of the court in that same game, Jalen Suggs is in a prime position to exceed his scoring line here as well. Suggs has cleared this line in 11 of his last 15 games that he saw at least 20 minutes of playing time. If Suggs can avoid foul trouble and a blowout tonight, he should have no problem clearing this line vs. the Jazz. SportsEthos daily projections currently have Suggs sitting at nearly 13 points on the night, which gives us another vote of confidence in this play. The Jazz are allowing the seventh-most threes to opposing guards in the NBA over the last month of the season, which is where Suggs can do a majority of the damage if he’s knocking them down.

Cody Martin O4.5 Rebounds

Point-Cody Martin gets another date with the Bucks tonight, but this time back on the Hornets’ home floor. Martin’s cleared this line in eight of his last nine performances, and most recently had six rebounds vs. the Bucks on Tuesday night in Milwaukee, despite playing just 22 minutes in the blowout loss. The Hornets were playing better basketball before being steamrolled by the Bucks, and hopefully they’ll get a chance to strike back tonight.

Dorian Finney-Smith O14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Current line: 15.5 PRA, which I would stay play with similar confidence.

Dorian Finney-Smith did us some justice earlier this week, so let’s see if we can work some of the same magic tonight in his matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks. We’re hoping to dodge a blowout here, which Brooklyn has had their fair share of in recent games, but these teams seem fairly matched in the absence of Trae Young (finger). On the season, the Hawks are allowing the sixth-most points, eighth-most rebounds and fifth-most assists to opposing power forwards on the season. They also give up the fourth-most threes to opponents at the position, so DFS should have a clear path to handling this line, barring a dreaded blowout.

Isaiah Hartenstein O9.5 Points + Assists

Isaiah Hartenstein sat the second leg of a back-to-back in order to manage his achilles injury, but he has no designation coming into tonight’s game vs. the Warriors. Hartenstein has had six points and four assists in each of his last two performances, narrowly clearing this line. I’m hoping Hartenstein is a bit more rejuvenated coming off the extra game of rest, and he gets a great matchup to accomplish this bar vs. Golden State. On the year, the Warriors are allowing the eighth-most points and the most assists to opposing centers in the league. Andrew Wiggins is also out tonight for the Warriors, which may help lead to some more open passing lanes for Hartenstein to kick out/

Underdog YTD Record: 41-54-5