Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Breakouts – Real or Mirage?

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  • By Paul Williamson

    Every year, there are players that come up and surprise all of us with a kind of season that was way better than anyone could have predicted.

    2025 was no different with a multitude of starting pitchers that took a major leap into fantasy relevancy.

    In this piece I will break down multiple of these arms and provide a score between 1-5 with ‘1’ being ‘mirage’ and ‘5’ being ‘real’.

    Trevor Rogers – BAL

    Rogers was probably the biggest (mostly) out of nowhere dude last year as he was someone available on 99% of all fantasy waiver wires when he got the call for his first start of the year on May 24. He threw 6.1 scoreless innings, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out five. He had a hiccup the following outing before going on to turn in one of the best campaigns for a starter we have seen.

    In 18 starts (109.2 innings), he returned a 1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, with 103 strikeouts and a 9-3 record.

    Prior to this season, Rogers had struggled with injuries and underperformance since he bursted onto the scene in 2021 as a Marlin.

    People gave the O’s a lot of pushback when they decided to trade for him at the deadline of 2024 and his poor season justified the backlash.

    But Rogers rewarded them in 2025.

    So…. was it real?

    All in all, for the most part, I’d say so.

    Now, he isn’t going to have a 1.81 ERA or 0.90 WHIP.

    But I do have him ranked inside the top-50 of starters in the Williamson 300 for 2026.

    He has some promising ERA estimators including

    • 3.40 xERA
    • 2.82 FIP
    • 3.75 SIERA

    Yeah, yeah,  yeah. They spell regression is coming.

    But regressing from an 1.81 ERA is a given.

    Digging deeper we find that he returned a rock solid 46.0% ground ball rate and below league average 7.6% barrel rate to help him limit damage, despite a high 48.4% hard-hit rate.

    Rogers also returned some nice K and BB numbers with a 24.3% K% and 6.9% BB%.

    He did a great job pitching to contact with a career-best 57.8% zone% and still missed plenty of bats with a 12.5% SwStr%.

    Looking at his pitch mix, he got his four-seamer velocity back above 93+ as he maintained 11.4″ of horizontal break (4.2″ more than comparable four-seamers). That yielded a very respectable 24.2% whiff rate.

    A major change in the secondaries came from throwing less of those four-seamers (57.7% usage in 2021) and more sinkers.

    I think we can credit this change with giving him that rock solid ground ball rate as he induced a four degree launch angle as hitters just pounded that pitch into the dirt.

    He also introduced a sweeper that he got a 37.7% whiff rate against as his tighter slider option returned him a very nice 41.0% whiff rate.

    One regression we saw was on the changeup that had a 34.% whiff rate against it in 2021 that dropped to 26.9% in 2025.

    The silver lining on the changeup — the velocity on it was up as the vertical drop and horizontal break both remained at their 2021 levels. So maybe we can see him execute it better and have two legit whiff offerings in his bag of tricks.

    He won’t be close to the 1.81 ERA but he should be a very productive strikeout arm as he should maintain that 24% K% and the damage limitation of the sinker will help him keep the ratios under control.

    SCORE – 4/5.

    Andrew Abbott – CIN

    He was solid for a couple of seasons before finishing as a top-25 pitcher per FanGraph’s Player Rater in 2025.

    He made 29 starts last year and threw 166.1 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 149 Ks and a 10-7 record.

    Unfortunately, this one is more mirage than real as I have him outside my top-60 of starters for 2025.

    Now, do keep in mind my rankings are for standard 12-team setups as I do think he holds more value in deeper formats given his solid floor as a command pitcher that should be able to accumulate for mangers through out the season. But he lacks the upside I am looking for in my starters for 12-team setups.

    Like with Rogers, with some ERA metrics that are not favorable with a

    • 3.55 xERA
    • 3.66 FIP
    • 4.20 SIERA

    Unlike Rogers, he allows a ton of flyballs with a 47.8% flyball% which amplifies the risk posed by pitching in Cincy’s Great America Ballpark that is notorious as a hitter’s park. Combine those flyballs with an around league average barrel rate of 8.0%, and we have someone who is at risk of allowing the long ball way too often.

    Also, unlike Rogers, we don’t see much swing and miss as he returned just a 10.9% SwStr% that supports the very average 21% K% we saw from him.

    Outside of his sweeper that had just a 13.8% usage rate, he doesn’t have a pitch with a whiff rate above 25.2%.

    Also, the movement on his pitches don’t necessarily jump off the page as there isn’t much to support that he has room to improve in the swing and miss department.

    Headed into 2026, managers should view him as (maybe) a step above streamer level arm in standard leagues. Drafting him with one of your last picks for some rotation depth isn’t the worst idea ever.

    But his limited ceiling makes him a very boring and uninspiring draft pick, especially pitching in GABP.

    Expect him to regress to his ERA from year’s past (3.67 and 3.72) and WHIPs from those years (1.30 and 1.32).

    Combined with limited K-production and we don’t have a super attractive fantasy asset. But the bottom shouldn’t completely fall out underneath him.

    SCORE – 2/5

    Nolan McLean – NYM

    Coming into the league as one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, McLean came into the bigs and really showed us why.

    In 48.0 innings in his first taste of MLB action, he posted a 5-1 record with a 2.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 57 Ks.


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    February 24, 2026, 9:00 am