Bills (+2.5) @ Chiefs (-2.5)

O/U 48.5

Important notes for Bills:

Familiarity breed contempt and in football that counts for double, but these teams aren’t filled with hate as much as they are fear and respect.  The margins between these two teams are razor thin, but while the Bills have come the closest to dethroning the Chiefs, the Chiefs also seem inevitable.  Buffalo is fresh of a massive win over BAL, slaying one dragon, but now they have to go into the the lair of Pat Mahomes and do the impossible, beat Mahomes on his home turf.  Winning ugly is better than losing pretty and that’s what the Bills did last week as Josh Allen had less than 200 total yards of offense.  The Bills won, but at what cost, they lost S Taylor Rapp and possibly CB Christian Benford.  If they are going to win, they need to be firing on all cylinders and that’s just not possible after playing the physical Ravens.  The Bills have a new offensive formula and it was likely modeled after the Chiefs.  Control the clock, run the ball and don’t make any mistakes.  If they give a defensive performance akin to what they did late in the season, they are dead on arrival, but big players rise to big games and one thing we know, Josh Allen isn’t afraid of the Chiefs or the moment and that has to count for something.

Important notes for Chiefs:

The Chiefs are the secret sauce and they seem to know something about winning that is uncalculatable and unknowable to the rest of the league.  The only thing standing in their way of a three-peat is the pesky Buffalo Bills.  They are healthier than they have been all season, Travis Kelce is in peak playoff form and they have plenty of offensive weapons for Mahomes to use as he pleases.  It would seem that this team is unbeatable in it’s current state and that’s without all the gifts that the officials send their way.  They’ve played one real game over the last few weeks and the only edge you could give BUF is that they have been tested and are mentally razor sharp, but the Chiefs aren’t really a team with a switch and there is no chance they are sleeping on the Bills.  Since meeting for the AFC title on Jan. 24, 2021, the Bills and Chiefs have met seven times, with Buffalo winning all four regular-season matchups and Kansas City winning each of the three playoff games.  If nothing else, the Chiefs know how to get up for a big game.

The QBs: Last week was the MVP-bowl between Allen and Lamar Jackson, but this is the real title fight as you can’t claim any sort of QB belt unless you first go through Mahomes.  Allen did just enough to win last week which is all that matters and that’s the strategy Mahomes has been using all season.  Each QB still has a cannon, but have they been saving it for this moment?  This game is going to be won in the trenches, but if either QB simply goes to higher place that hasn’t been reached since the 13-second game, all the game-planning and scheming goes out the window.  Mahomes has the edge due to everything, but you can’t discount the power of hunger and Allen doesn’t just want it, he needs it to get over the hump, bolster his legacy, redeem the Bills etc.   The key is whether he can harness that hunger and not let it run wild and force him to overextend himself and make a costly mistake.  That’s the ballgame, the Chiefs prey on mistakes and the margin for the Bills to win is a sliver, but it’s still there.

The RBs: This is the one major edge that BUF has as James Cook has made the leap and is matchup-proof at this point.  Ray Davis and Tyler Johnson are both budding studs and the Chiefs are stuck in the mud with Isaiah Pacheco not running well and Kareem Hunt on career fumes.  They are still competent, but KC can’t win this game on the ground and if history has any value, KC will keep the ball in the hands of its superstar.  The Bills have tried to lighten the load on Allen all season by running the ball and that didn’t stop vs. BAL.  KC is similarily elite defending the run, but if Allen can engineer long drives by handing it off and moving the chains, he will do it every time.  I expect plenty of Cook all game, while KC might abandon the run if it’s forced into early third-and-long situations.

The WRs: There are a lot of names in this game and who knows who will show up.  Amari Cooper might be semi-washed, but he might be the just kind of stud WR that excels with all the chips in the middle.  The Bills have struggled vs. KC in the playoffs because Stefon Diggs never shows up and that forced BUF to find WR production elsewhere.  Now, they have spread the talent around and if you stop one route-runner, another pops up in its place.  The stage might be too big for the rookies, aka Keon Coleman and Xavier Worthy, but you can be sure that Deandre Hopkins is ready for this moment.  Khalil Shakir has been a stabilizing force in the passing game for BUF, but don’t forget about Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel who are blooming at the perfect time.  The Bills might come up short without a go-to player in a big moment, but they are counting on Allen to make the right read, find the open player and just pray he comes down with the ball.  For KC, it’s as dangerous as it’s ever been as Hollywood Brown has a few games under his belt and with him Hopkins and Worthy, it’s impossible to cover them all.

The TEs: If everything else was even, then Kelce is the difference-maker.  He proved last week that he’s saving himself just for these moments, so don’t expect a slower, plodding Kelce like we saw in the regular season.  He still has the juice and as usual will be heard from in this game.  If BUF can keep him under 100 yards and from scoring, that’s a coup, but best of luck as everyone before has tried the same strategy and failed.  The Bills could use a big TE game from Dalton Kincaid, but don’t count on it as he hasn’t make the strides that everyone hoped for this season.  The biggest edge in the game is at TE and it might tip the scales once again in KC’s favor.

Best Bet: Josh Allen over 49.5 rushing yards and Travis Kelce over 66.5 rec yards.

This isn’t the time to get cute or mess around.  Everyone knows what each team wants to do and I don’t think either defense can stop Allen or Kelce from eating.  These numbers are high and if we got screwed on Allen rushing yards by a kneel down, then that’s a fair price to pay as it means BUF finally got over the hump.  Kelce is essentially a lock barring something insane happening KC has too many weapons for BUF to double-him over the middle.

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