I’ve been slowly rolling these out as we ramp up for the NFL season, less than two months away! I’ll keep adding some futures, but wanted to put them all in one place for those who may have missed them in the Discord and (sometimes) the WagerPass Top Plays article. We are cooking with some key insights that will help us in fantasy as well as betting, so let’s get down to it.

It’s easiest for me to just break this down by Sportsbook since I can look at my open bets on each site. When possible, I have used the same Sportsbook to give you updated odds. If it is not the same book, I have clarified.

DraftKings

PIT Steelers O8.5 wins

Odds Locked In: +140

Units Wagered: 3u to win 4.2u

Current Odds: +135

Writeup: The offense is going to be much improved this season. Yes, that means I’m buying into Russell Wilson (or Justin Fields!) being at least decent, which isn’t a totally batshit thing to believe. But truly this comes down to a truly elite defense, basically top 5 in every metric, that comes back for another season and adds some more depth through the draft in key spots. This team just won 10 games last season with an absolutely terrible offense. There’s no question that nine wins are within reach, so I expect this to continue to shift.

Would I still play it? Absolutely. Smash play.

Lamar Jackson U5.5 rushing TDs

Odds Locked In: -115

Units Wagered: 2.3u to win 2u

Current Odds: U4.5 at -115

Writeup: Jackson hasn’t broken this threshold in three seasons, and the Ravens added powerhouse Derrick Henry who should get a majority of the goalline carries. They’re going to run Henry into the ground as they try to get over the hump and win the super bowl, but more importantly, the Ravens just signed Jackson to a massive five-year extension and should be invested in keeping him healthy here in the early-going to protect their asset.

Would I still play it? No, this has shifted way too far and the margins are gone in my opinion.

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