Last Updated on June 6, 2025 6:36 am by Anthony Kates | Published: June 6, 2025

For pitchers, it’s easier to spot breakouts as a sudden change in velocity or pitch movement is something entirely under their control, allowing us to unequivocally determine that they are the ones who have changed something. For hitters, it’s a bit more complicated as they have a different x-factor to deal with in their outputs – namely, the pitcher themself.

Think of it this way – if a pitcher suddenly throws 100mph after topping out at 96mph previously, then it’s obvious that pitcher has a new velocity ceiling. However, if a hitter suddenly has a new top exit velocity, it could be due to a number of factors, including the stadium, the ball, and the pitcher they’re facing. That’s why the more popular stat for determining breakouts is 90th-percentile EV instead of Max EV, since it removes a good portion of the noise and leaves you more signal.

Even though it takes longer to notice on average, when a breakout occurs for a batter and the realization hits you, it sometimes smacks you in the face with just how good the player has actually been – as is the case for our first name below.

Addison Barger – SS – TOR – 40% Yahoo, 47% CBS

Last 14 Days: .304/.385/.630 – 4HR/0SB – .423 wOBA – .326 ISO – 180 wRC+

Yes, it’s still a fairly small sample size but Barger is absolutely mashing in his second-year breakout.

He’s been particularly scorching over the past two weeks – just take a look at his .326 ISO for evidence – and his 1.015 OPS over that 14-day span has now raised his overall batting line to .271/.333/.496 in 41 games played. This comes after he struggled mightily during his rookie debut, in which he managed a line of just .197/.250/.351 with a wRC+ 30-percent worse than league average. Because of that, the sudden improvement is understandably being met with some scepticism. After all, most of the time when this level of breakout happens almost overnight, one look under the hood at their expected stats tends to let the helium out of their balloon. Barger, however, is no such case;

Though I made reference to sample size up top, it’s worth noting that Barger now has enough plate appearances under his belt to qualify for the batted-ball leaderboards and in some cases, sit atop them. Being in the top-five percent for average exit velocity and hard-hit rate is certainly a good way to earn yourself some additional faith from fantasy managers but also sitting in the top 10-percent for expected batting average and slugging should do than make Barger a waiver wire target – it should also make him a trade target if not available for FAAB.

The reason I say that is because I’m much more confident in Barger than your average free agent due to him having undergone a (seemingly successful) swing change, making his new skill level all the more sustainable. Barger will never be Juan Soto but his ability to stick with the middle of the pack in the plate-discipline metrics is also promising because even though he’s now selling out a bit more to get to his power, he showed the ability to work a walk fairly frequently at the minor league level, with a 48:40 K:BB ratio at Triple-A in 2024.

All together, you have a well-rounded hitter who has seemingly undergone a legitimate change that has led to an impressive breakout. The best part? He’s actually underperformed so far in 2025;

Turns out you can still find breakouts on the wire in June!

Noah Cameron – SP – KC – 52% Yahoo, 62% CBS

Last 14 Days: 19.0 IP – 0.95 ERA/3.32 FIP/0.89 WHIP – 13:5 K:BB – 1 HR

Noah Cameron has quietly put together five straight starts in which he’s allowed one run or fewer to open his MLB career and yet nobody (save yours truly currently, I suppose) is talking about this guy.

A 6’3″ lefty that boasts a true five-pitch mix, Cameron’s elite command and run-prevention skills earned him a nod as the 85th overall prospect per FanGraphs’ preseason ranking so while he wasn’t a complete nobody entering the year, you’d still be forgiven for not being familiar with the Central Arkansas alum. Let’s take a look at his arsenal first;

With almost every one of his pitches in the 80s when it comes to velo, Cameron doesn’t have a wide velocity band to work with so he instead succeeds of his 60-grade command and changeup – though it’s been his curveball that’s been the true standout for him so far, allowing just a .050 batting average against and causing hitters to strike out 33.3% of the time.

The reason he hasn’t been snapped up in quite enough leagues is most likely due to hesitation around his middling strikeout totals (5.61 per nine) but he did strike out 38 in 32.2 innings at Triple-A earlier this season before being called up so he should find himself around at least league-average by season’s end. The ATC projection system is particularly bullish, projecting 73 innings and 67 strikeouts going forward. Combining a low ERA and a reasonable strikeout rate with the backing of Kaufmann Stadium is how Michael Wacha has found success as an underrated fantasy asset the past few seasons and Cameron could be the next to take up that mantle.

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Jeff Clowers

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