Working The Waiver Wire: August 29th

  • Is it just me or does it feel weirdly quiet when it comes to the waiver wire? Perhaps a little too quiet?

    We were collectively introduced to quite an intriguing new batch of prospects thanks to a steady stream of promotions late last week but it’s since slowed to a bit of a trickle. That’s likely due to a combination of teams in desperation mode having already pulled the trigger on their high-impact callups, as well as teams with event horizons that are further out being patient and waiting for September to roll around in order to not burn a year of team control on their players’ contracts.

    That means, for the time being, we’re left to comb through some potential options currently in the majors that are showing late-season surges.

    Away we go!

    Parker Messick – SP – CLE – 19% Yahoo, 40% CBS

    Last 14 Days: 7.1 IP – 0.66 ERA/1.59 FIP/0.88 WHIP – 12:1 K:BB – 0 HR

    We’re working with the smallest of small sample sizes here but if Messick can maintain his 2.0% walk rate and 0.0% barrel rate, he may just be the best pitcher in baseball!

    Of course, those numbers aren’t even remotely sustainable – so take them with a boulder-sized grain of salt – but it’s still wildly impressive for an unheralded rookie to come up for his debut and to be as nigh-unhittable as Messick has been thus far. Since we’re dealing with just over seven innings of work, let’s put some of the ratios to the side for now and instead examine his pitch mix for intel since the rate at which the data stabilizes and becomes usable happens much quicker.

     

    Usage% Whiff% xwOBA Hard-Hit%
    Four-Seam 44.8 33.3 .200

    30.0

    Changeup

    21.5 47.6 .309 30.0
    Slider 14.9 7.7 .129

    0.0

    Curve

    11.0 25.0 .403 60.0
    Sinker 7.7 0.0 .478

    0.0

    Though he leans most heavily on his fastball and changeup, Messick has shown opposing hitters a five-pitch arsenal across his first two starts. His four-seam stands out as the best of the bunch by Run Value, scoring a +3 grade, which makes sense as it carries the best combination of soft-contact generation plus whiffs. It’s not a particularly speedy fastball, averaging just 93.0mph so far, but it generates above-average spin rates and Messick’s plus-command allows him to place it wherever he desires.

    Although his changeup currently grades out with a -1 Run Value, scouts firmly believe it’s his best offering overall, with FanGraphs grading it a 70 on the 20-80 scale. Given the time to work on his tunneling, sequencing, et al, it’s likely that hitters going against Messick will face fits with the pitch going forward. If he can marry an above-average fastball, plus-command and an elite offspeed offering, those are the exact building blocks for future success as a promising starter that we’re looking for.

    Throw in that he gets the Guardians’ pitching development team behind him and there’s a good chance that Messick will prove to be a prescient pickup for the playoff stretch run.

    Luis Morales – SP – ATH – 14% Yahoo, 18% CBS

    Last 14 Days: 16.2 IP – 1.00 ERA/2.51 FIP/0.72 WHIP – 18:4 K:BB – 1 HR

    The book on Morales as a prospect was that he was incredibly raw, even for his age. The quote from Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs that I’ve passed around in multiple articles says it best;

    The way Morales is built and moves is way different than most other prospects and gives him enormous theoretical ceiling, but to say he’s undercooked as a pitching craftsman would be an understatement.

    With that in mind – it would make sense if Morales struggled out of the gate initially in his first taste of the majors before eventually finding his footing, right? Well, let’s do a simple split of his lines over his first two appearances, followed by his next three;

     

    First 2 Appearances Next 3 Appearances
    IP 4.2

    18.0

    Hits

    3 9
    Earned Runs 1

    2

    FIP

    5.27 2.51
    K:BB 4:6

    18:4

    As you can see, Morales was (effectively) wild in his first two appearances, managing to limit opponents to just one run despite seven baserunners making it on base over his 4.2 innings – including five walks coming in an outing in which he wasn’t scored upon. You can account for those numbers in your calculations if you like but I’m likely to more-or-less toss them out of consideration entirely as a young pitcher finding their way. The results since speak for themselves, as Morales has averaged six innings (and a strikeout per inning) over his last three starts.

    There are a few signs that he’s outperforming his peripherals slightly though. Over the most recent trio of starts, his swinging-strike rate sits at just 9.1% – several percentage points below where we’d like –  and his HR/FB rate sits at an unsustainably low figure of 3.8%. Playing your home games in Sacramento means that number will undoubtedly skyrocket over time, through no fault of Morales’ however.

    Still, if you’re a believer in the idea that Morales is talented enough to adjust his game, then the excitement for him may have only just begun ramping up.

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