Wide Receivers Most Likely to Crush 2024 ADP

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  • By Nathan Hernandez

    Identifying players with extremely high upside and the ability to perform well beyond the expectations that their average draft position (ADP) in off-season fantasy football drafts. Wide receivers are arguably the position group most abundant with players for drafters to strike it rich on in the back end of their drafts. Year after year, many under-the-radar rookies and age-defying veterans burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere, only to catapult a team into success as a true league-winning pick. With this piece, I’m going to be diving into some of last year’s success stories and try to identify which wide receivers could blow their ADP out of the water after the 2024 NFL fantasy football season is all said and done. I will be referencing 2023’s half-point PPR ADP via FantasyPros and listing players in descending order based on when they

    2023 Wide Receiver Success Stories

    Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR3 – ADP WR10)

    Amon-Ra St. Brown was going in the middle of the second round of fantasy football drafts off-season, and despite the already-steep price tag, he still proceeded to smash expectations. He was a bonafide superstar in the Lions’ roaring offense, which is loaded with dynamic talents at each skill position. Despite the star-studded offense, none shined brighter than the Sun God, who racked up 119 catches on 164 targets for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns while starting in 16-of-17 games last year. With no signs of slowing down and signing a lucrative four-year / $180M contract extension with Detroit in April, St. Brown should remain a stud in his fourth NFL season, and that’s reflected in his current 2024 ADP of eighth overall as the fifth WR off boards in off-season drafts.

    Keenan Allen (WR8 – ADP WR19)

    Despite the longtime-Chargers wide receiver having some health issues last season and missing four games, Allen still managed to finish as the WR8 in 2023, which would ultimately be his last season with the franchise he’s been with since being drafted in the third round back in 2013. Allen actually finished third amongst all WRs last season in fantasy points per game in his 13 contests, where he reeled in 108-of-150 targets on his way to 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns. When Allen was active, he was arguably a top-five wide receiver, but now he has an ADP of 50th overall in current off-season drafts ahead of the 2024 NFL season as the WR28 off the board. He will be taking his talents to Chicago where he will be catching passes from the first overall pick from this year’s draft, Caleb Williams, out of USC. Allen also is facing his toughest target competition of his career in a dramatically transformed offense led by a rookie QB.

    DJ Moore (WR6 – ADP WR20)

    Another Chicago Bears wide receiver, DJ Moore, smashed expectations in his first season since being traded from the Panthers in the previous off-season. Moore has long been underserved by the Panthers’ wallowing offense, and immediately seized the potential that many saw inside him during his first NFL tenure with Carolina. Exploding for 96 catches on 136 targets for 1,364 yards and nine total touchdowns, Moore found himself near the top of fantasy leaderboards at the end of 2023 as the WR6 on the season. However, Moore was the epitome of boom-or-bust in 2023, still finishing outside the top-24 fantasy WRs in 11 weeks last season, but also finishing outside the top-40(!!!) wide receivers in 9-of-17 games. Moore is a very dangerous pick this season at an ADP of 31 as the WR19 overall ahead of the 2024 season, though he’s a bit easier to click in best ball fantasy football formats.

    Mike Evans (WR5 – ADP WR32)

    The first true ADP-crush on this list from 2023 was the evergreen Mike Evans, who, of course, put up another 1,000-yard season catching balls from Baker Mayfield in their season together after Mayfield joined the team in the off-season, exceeded expectations on his prove-it deal and re-signed with Tampa Bay on a three-year deal to lead the Bucs’ offense for the foreseeable future. Evans caught 79-of-136 targets for 1,255 yards and a league-leading 13 receiving touchdowns in his 10th NFL season to log a WR5 overall finish last season, despite being taken as the WR32 in last year’s drafts in the middle of the seventh round. The age cliff is still looming for Evans, but the impressive connection between him and his new QB still boosts him up to an overall ADP of 29 as the WR17 off of draft boards in the current stage of the off-season.

    Nico Collins (WR9 – ADP WR56)

    If Mike Evans was the first true ADP-crusher on this list, then Texans’ standout WR Nico Collins is the first league-winning diamond in the rough from last season’s top fantasy wideouts. One of the benefactors of the absurd passing volume that came from rookie C.J. Stroud, Collins finished with 80 receptions on 109 targets en route to 1,297 yards and eight touchdown catches. He finished as the WR9 on the season, but was taken as the WR56 in the 13th round of drafts before breaking out in a big way. Now, it’ll cost fantasy football drafters a pretty penny to add Collins to their squads in 2024, as he now sits as the 13th WR off the boards and 19th overall. With Stefon Diggs now in the fold (2024 ADP WR20), it will be interesting to see how the target share plays out between the two studs and the rising star, Tank Dell.

    Rashee Rice (WR27 – ADP WR58)

    Rashee Rice was taken in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft and immediately filled a position with need in Kansas City’s prolific passing offense. The Chiefs had spun the tires on multiple receivers, both young and old, since trading away Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins a couple of seasons ago, but none have stood out quite like Rice did in his rookie season with the 2023-24 NFL Super Bowl Champions. Rice finished inside the top-24 WRs in six of his last 10 performances to close the season, and totaled 79 catches on 102 targets for 938 yards and seven touchdowns. Rice was going in the second or third round of off-season drafts before getting into some legal troubles with a potential suspension looming for the 2024 season. Now, with the suspension risk baked into his draft cost, he now sits as the WR39 off the boards in drafts in the seventh round.

    Jayden Reed (WR23 – ADP WR73)

    As Packers quarterback Jordan Love was making strides in his game in 2023 and intriguing second-year WR Christian Watson battled injuries, 50th overall draft pick in 2023, Jayden Reed, emerged as arguably the most consistent receiving option for Green Bay last season. Reed flashed in multiple facets of the offense, racking up 64 catches on 94 targets for 793 yards and eight touchdowns, while also rushing for 112 yards and two more scores on the ground. His season catapulted him to a WR2 finish on the season, and projects as a solid fantasy asset in 2024. Ahead of next season, Reed currently has the highest draft capital of the Packers’ wideouts, as he’s being taken as the WR34 in the sixth round of off-season fantasy football drafts.

    Puka Nacua (WR4 – ADP WR90)

    The epitome of league-winning and shattering ADP, the 2023 phenomenon that was Puka Nacua’s record-breaking rookie season is the type of player that drafters may only nail once in a lifetime. An under-the-radar prospect, he was taken 177th overall in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Rams. Nacua found himself in the perfect storm of an insanely efficient and volume-intense offense that was also at the same time a very concentrated one that rewarded its top talents when QB Matthew Stafford was healthy and dialed. Nacua finished the season as the fantasy WR4 overall after being taken as the WR90(!!!), also capturing the NFL rookie records of 105 receptions and 1,486 receiving yards. Now, Nacua is on the whole other side of draft boards in 2024, being taken at the end of the first round as the WR7.

    Summary

    While it is true that there are values to be found at every stage of fantasy football drafts, there was a common theme amongst some of the members of this list. The most drastic ADP-crushing picks that were mentioned were all rookie or second-year players on prolific passing offenses with ambiguous target shares and a large role potentially up for grabs. There are a couple of similar situations presenting themselves ahead of the 2024 fantasy football season, and I’m going to detail some of my favorite potential WR breakouts for the 2024 season to smash their current ADP.

    July 23, 2024, 2:20 pm