The Dolphins appeared to be right on the cusp of figuring it all out after Week 1 last season and it looked like they might be a cheat code on offense.  They are chalk full of downhill weapons, but the fastest sports car in the world is just an expensive piece of metal if the engine can’t be trusted.  It’s all on the shoulders of Tua Tagavailoa (QB9) and whether he can handle the burden remains the most pertinent question in South Beach.

The Dolphins were fueled by a two-headed monster on offense last season that took the league by storm.  On the surface it would seem that would have to be Tyreek Hill (WR2) and Jaylen Waddle (WR34), but in reality it was Raheem Mostert (RB5) and De’Von Achane (RB21) who alternated as jet fuel.  The passing game was still deadly as the Dolphins led the league in passing yards and finished fourth in passing TDs, but it was the running game that really opened up the pre-motion, quick-strike offense.

The Dolphins finished first in total yards and second in total points behind the running back duo that led the league in rushing TDs with 27 and yards-per-attempt with 5.1.  Whether the passing game opened up the running game or vice versa is simply semantics, but either way the Dolphins were a gold mine for fantasy.  The real question is how replicable is this and which players are worth the draft capital now that there won’t be any discounts in Miami.  Hill is still the safest bet as he seems to thrive regardless of coverage and has played at least 15 games in four straight seasons.  The advanced stats say he hasn’t lost a step and with 5.6 yards-after-completion last season, it doesn’t really matter if he’s going deep or running a drag route, the fantasy numbers just keep piling up.  Hill has reached fantasy god status and if you ever have the opportunity to draft him, you should do it blindly and congratulate yourself later.

The case for Tua is more complicated as he’s clearly a paper tiger who destroys bad teams and wilts against the elite.  It’s getting to the fade Kirk Cousins in primetime level when the Dolphins go against elite defenes.  It’s also hard to ignore how Coach Mike McDaniel has maximized his talents and created an offense that is both quick-strike oriented while also a constant deep-ball threat.  This is evidenced by the fact that Tua led league in time to throw with 2.36 second from the snap while being tied for second with C.J. Stroud (5.1) in air yards-per-attempt.  Regardless of how you feel about Tua’s ability to win the Super Bowl, his ability vs. to win you a fantasy title remains sky-high as everything runs through him and the 30-27 rushing/passing TD splits are likely to regress more towards passing this season.

The Dolphins pretty much elected to run it back offensively roster wise and while the defense has plenty of new faces, it vacillated last season between being solid and shaky.  The offense will be able to carry the load and should be even more potent with a wiser and healthier Achane and newly added TE Jonnu Smith will get plenty of open looks over the middle of the field.  It remains to be seen What Odell Beckham Jr. has left in the tank, but he’s a fun storyline nonetheless.  The beauty of the Dolphins is that they are constantly probing on offense and attack where you are weakest and sometimes just for the hell of it, they go straight for your head and air it out to Hill despite a clear attempt from the defense to take him out of the play

Writer’s Season Win Prediction: 10-7

Let’s pivot back to the run game which was borderline historic despite Achane only playing 11 games and Mostert being on the wrong side of 30.  Both players were going for essentially nothing in fantasy drafts last season and now both are inside the top-30.  It’s hard to properly rate the two as Achane might legitimately be too fast to stay healthy and Mostert was more of a one-year wonder with a litany of previous injuries giving fantasy GMs pause.  Usually in these timeshare situations you really bank on an injury to propel one guy into the next stratosphere, but Achane’s rushing numbers look like receiving numbers (455 yards on 37 rushes over three games) and this might only work with both of them equally pulling their weight.  Achane might put up video game numbers as a lead back, but fantasy GMs might be better off with him splitting carries, preserving his body and just being great instead of otherworldly.  Meanwhile, Mostert has been around the block, but last season was the first time he ever exceeded 200 carries.  So, in essence he’s a young 31-year-old in an era where being a RB is a young man’s game.  As a rule, one should never pay for the exception, when the career is probably the rule, so Mostert is a little too high-risk even if the reward is leading the league in TDs.  Jamaal Williams led the league in rushing TDs in 2022 and we all saw how that panned out last season.  Achane is magic beans and is probably worth whatever it takes to get him while Mostert has more red flags than green ones.

We’ve already covered Tua, Hill and the running games, so that really just leaves Jaylen Waddle as the last man at the trough.  With the running game exploding and Hill continuing to dominate, there wasn’t much room for Waddle stretch his wings.  He remains an elite talent and closely mirrored Hill in yards-per-reception 14.1 to 15.1 and YAC 5.6 to 5.8, but it was those precious red zone targets where Hill separated himself with a 24-8 advantage and a 31.1 to 18.9 overall % of team targets.  Drafting Waddle is essentially a bet that Hill will be double and even triple teamed or will get hurt and Waddle will elevate from a WR2 to WR1, but last season it didn’t matter what defenses did and Hill managed to play 16 games, while Waddle missed three.  Waddle can do it all has the potential to jump multiple rounds of value this season.  His floor is still pretty safe as he still racked up over 1000 yards last season, but his ceiling still remains a tantalizing mystery.

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