In the wise words of Dewey from Malcolm In The Middle…

Ever since the prospect-hype ecosystem began to fully flourish in fantasy baseball circles decades ago, managers have been on the hunt for lottery tickets that could push their team to a title by scouring for potential up-and-coming stars. It’s a strategy that works amazingly when it’s successful, as the reward can outpace the cost by a massive magnitude, but it’s a lower probability bet than most believe since the misses are forgotten in the annals of history, while the hits stay front and center in your memory for years to come.

So how do you avoid those empty hacks and come away instead with a home run swing? To me, the number one mistake we make in drafting rookies is not properly understanding where they stand when it comes to their aging curve. It’s sort of like picking an avocado – it doesn’t really matter if it will taste great in two weeks if it’s not ripe for your meal today. Whereas picking the wrong ones that are a little too far along could seem fine initially, before eventually spoiling and rotting your best laid plans.

The thing that plays mental tricks on most fantasy drafters is that prospect rankings are intended to encompass a larger event horizon, sometimes upwards of 10+ years into the future. This window tries to capture the full scope of value in a player’s career arc but it oftentimes skews the value towards high-upside, low-floor players who have yet to even sniff Double-A. Those players may fetch a king’s ransom in dynasty formats but in re-draft leagues, sometimes a high-floor player can earn themselves a surprising lineup opportunity and carry that momentum to an impressive debut.

This is definitely oversimplifying things but generally speaking, the formula for determining prospect value in dynasty leagues goes something like;

Peak Value + Longevity + Proximity = Overall Value

Whereas the equation for re-draft goes more along the lines of;

Current Value + Current Opportunity + Proximity = Overall Value

The key word to focus on there is that of “Opportunity”. When it comes to bullpens where volatility is expected, feel free to draft skilled players over players with defined roles. Everywhere else? Opportunity should always be at the forefront of your decision making as it’s still (as of yet) impossible to contribute Major League stats while playing MiLB games.

With that in mind, you won’t find many players in the low minors listed here because as much as I think Jesus Made may be the second coming, he’s years away and won’t be in consideration for this list for some time. Meanwhile, even a talented player like Samuel Basallo, who is currently in Triple-A and just one promotion away from the majors, doesn’t have much of an opportunity to unseat Adley Rutschmann or Coby Mayo for at-bats this season. On the other hand, we may dip our toes into some lesser-known bullpen arms as they have a better shot at a surprise callup.

In fact, let’s split our rookie and first-year players into four primary archetypes. This will allow us to group and discuss similar players, since the type of player you’re after can change depending on your roster construction. At the end, I’ll put them all in a master ranking based off my gut feeling on the whole.

All charted stats below are from the entirety of the 2024 MiLB season (between all levels) and do not include MLB data – unless otherwise specified.

Tier 1 – Best of Both Worlds (Immediate Upside)

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