Fantasy at its core is about swinging for the fences and just crushing one of your early picks.  If you draft a player in the third round who provides first round value, the cascading effect on your whole team is priceless.  It takes a lot for that to happen as everyone has the same info and it’s how you sort, quantify and extrapolate that info that separates the fantasy also rans from the fantasy champions.  Let’s look at the players who finished at the top of their position last season and try and look for some semi-longshots to predict who will finish there this season

QB1 in 2023 – Josh Allen at 24.2 FPPG

Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy player the last three seasons and that’s because he does a little bit of everything.  In order to grab the top-spot, a QB is going to have to out-Allen Allen and that’s no easy task.  They are going to have run, pass and score and do it all at an elite level.  While players like Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa were slinging the ball as well as anyone last season, their lack of rushing yards/rushing TDs really capped their ceiling and while Prescot was the QB3, he was still 3.5 FPPG behind Allen.

Darkhorse prediction for 2024

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Murray is currently going as the 9^th QB off the board and while he hasn’t been great or available the last two seasons, this is a brand new team that might be ready to storm the gates.  Murray has it in him as he was the QB2 (24.4 FPPG) as a sophomore in 2020.  He’s got the perfect mix of rushing ability (11 TDs with 819 rushing yards) combined with an increased awareness and an ability to make progressions while scrambling from pressure.  In order to finish as the QB1 there can’t be any holes in the QB or the team.  The real reasoning that could skyrocket Murray is both the ascension of TE Trey McBride and rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.  Both players are primed to hit the ground running and RB stalwart James Connor is still chugging away at an elite rate.  It doesn’t stop there as it’s hard for a QB with an elite defense to get caught in shootouts.  No problem there as the Arizona defense figures to have a bottom-five unit and will rely on Murray to not only keep them in games, but catch them back up.

For Murray to dominate it’s all going to come down to his confidence in his teammates as two seasons ago, he looked awful as he perpetually checked down and averaged a career-low 6.2 yards-per-completion.  Compare that with his previous campaign, the one after his QB2 finish where he averaged 7.9 yards-per-completion, and it was like watching a completely different QB.  It’s not a lock by any means, as he still has to prove he can stay healthy and the offensive line isn’t elite.  The real missing link is a third threat and if Michael Wilson can emerge or Zay Jones can get back to his 2022 self where he racked up 823 yards, the Cardinals will be too versatile to contain and might profile as one of the most entertaining teams in the league.

RB1 In 2023 – Christian McCaffrey at 24.5 FPPG

McCaffrey wasn’t just great last season; he was transcendent and the only question was whether he was going to score two TDs instead of just one.  He was more than three points ahead of the RB2 Kyren Williams and he was more than 6.5 points ahead of the RB3 Alvin Kamara.  To be honest if CMC has that season again, no one is topping him, but if someone wants to keep pace with him, they are going to have to do it on the ground and somehow outpace him in the receiving game.

Darkhorse Prediction for 2024

James Cook – Buffalo Bills

Everything weaves together and if Murray is going supplant Allen as the QB1, then Allen is going to have to take at least a small statistical hit.  The real outlier last season was Allen’s 15 rushing TDs since he only had 13 combined over the previous two seasons.  The Bills were a top-five unit in rushing attempts and rushing TDs, but Allen was doing most of the heavy lifting inside the red zone.

Cook averaged 4.7 yards-per-rush, but also doubled his reception total as a rookie with 44 grabs.  He profiles as an old-school lead back who will hopefully only have to share carries with Allen and should be on the field for all three downs.  Again, yards are easy and Cook should be able to knock on the door of 2000 all-purpose yards, but if you want to be the RB1, you have to find the end zone, a lot.  The last three seasons the RB1 has had at least 18 TDs, so lets call that the floor along with about 2000 total yards.  The most receiving TDs a RB can usually get is about seven (the nine Jerick McKinnon scored two seasons ago notwithstanding).  So that means Cook is going to have rush for 11 TDs after only having two last season.  That’s quite the leap, but let’s keep digging.  Allen threw for 29 TDs last season, but 15 of them were to Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs.  It’s not crazy to assume with a much more inexperienced receiving core, his passing TDs take a slight hit.  The Bills have scored 51 TDs, 49 TDs and 56 TDs the last three seasons.  If Allen regresses to 25 passing TDs, that leaves 25 TDs on the table for the running game.  Now are we to believe Allen is the player who went crazy for 15 rushing TDs last season or is he the guy who averaged seven the previous three seasons.  Even if he scores 10 rushing TDs, that means there is potentially 15 available for Cook.  Cook needs 11 of those 15, along with seven receiving TDs to post a truly monster fantasy season.  It’s not probable, but it is possible and we know Cook has the talent, he just needs the opportunity.

If you want stats, here they are as Cook ranked 5th in rushing success %, 2nd in receiving success %, 4th in scrimmage yards per touch, but he was out-attempted by Allen 33 to 29 in rushes inside the 20.  Inside the five if it was even worse as Cook only had four to Allen’s 14.  This is what has to not just flip, but drastically break Cook’s way and it could as OC Joe Brady clearly emphasized wanting to get Cook the rock.  As long as Cook can deliver, the Buffalo brass would definitely prefer pounding him into defensive lines in goal-to-go situations than the franchise QB.

WR1 in 2023 CeeDee Lamb at 23.7 FPPG 

Lamb is the perfect example of how lucrative it can be to nail a draft pick as he was only the WR6 two season’s ago and finally hit that next level last season.  Finishing as the WR1 is almost harder than finishing as the RB1 as there are about five guys who at any point could go nuclear for 1700 yards and 12 TDs.   That’s the floor for the WR1, but it’s probably more like 1800 yards and 15 TDs.  You can’t do it alone and as great as Justin Jefferson is, he probably isn’t in the running or is at best is an honorable mention due to his QB.  WR1 is a tango and it takes two to dance.  You need an elite passing QB, a passing offense and a dominant target share.  Lamb had all three last season and was able to rise above the fray.  Who has a similar profile this season?

Darkhorse prediction for 2024

Puka Nacua – Los Angeles Rams

He’s “only” the projected WR8 after finishing as the WR4 last season and while every name above him is a threat to finish as the WR1 in their own right, this one seems too easy.   Anyway you break it down, Nacua is a monster and not a fluke.  Elite target share (29%), check.  Elite yardage (1345 on 94 receptions), check.  The ability to level up and be relied on, (broke rookie playoff yardage record in his first playoff game with 181 yards), check.  Nacua is a walking check mark and he still has more ceilings to reach as he led the league in drops while also finishing fifth in YAC.  The drops are a fluke, but the YAC  proves that Nacua relishes contact and doesn’t go out of bounds or slide.

Let’s talk about the real elephant in the room as the yards aren’t going to be an issue.  The only two threats to Nacua are Matt Stafford’s health and Cooper Kupp finding the fountain of youth.  As great as Nacua was, when the Rams got into the red zone, Stafford still peppered Kupp like he was the WR1.  Nacua was out-targeted by Kupp in the red zone 16-to-18 despite Kupp having almost half as many receptions (59-to-105).  Justin Jefferson was the WR1 two seasons ago despite only racking up eight receiving TDs, but that seems low.  With the WR position this stacked, Nacua is going to need double digit TDs and in order to do that he’s going to need Matt Stafford to be elite the entire season.  Last season, Stafford started slow and only had three passing TDs through the first four games.  He finished the last six games with 15 TDs and that projects to about 40 TDs over the season.  It’s not unreasonable to assume Stafford can throw for 35 TDs next season and with the Rams’ defense about to take an Aaron Donald sized hit, there are plenty of shootouts in their future.  It’s not going to be easy, but if Kupp gets hurt again and misses a couple of games, Nacua should get a nice boost and will be the sole red zone target.  I’m not sure why Nacua isn’t a presumptive top-five WR, but I’ll take the value all day and have learned my lesson never to bet against Puka Nacua.  The injury Nacua just suffered isn’t ideal, but he should be healthy by Week 1 and this will only further depress his ADP while creating a wider window in which for him to excel.

TE1 in 2023 – Travis Kelce at 14.6 FPPG

Kelce finished as the TE1 in FPPG, but it was Sam LaPorta who scored the most fantasy points on the season.  Not that that discrepancy matters that much, but Kelce showed last season that he’s no longer the sole TE god on Mount Olympus and you only have to make a God bleed for people to cease to believe in him.  The TE position hasn’t been this wide open in a nearly a decade and while Mark Andrews was the TE1 2021, Kelce eclipsed all TEs by 100 points in 2022.  If TJ Hockenson was healthy, it would be another conversation altogether, but the goal here is find the sneaky TE1 as it appears Kelce is ready to abdicate the throne.  It won’t be easy as Sam LaPorta looks like poised to have a long reign, but nothing is set in stone.

Darkhorse prediction for 2024

Dalton Kincaid – Buffalo Bills

Kincaid had a solid rookie season, finishing as the TE11 in PPR, but that only tells half the story as the Bills kept him in the stable all season.  Well, the doors have been smashed open and the training wheels are going to be off this season.  Gone are the 152 combined receptions, 1929 yards and 15 TDs (from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) and to fill that void is a rookie and journeyman WR Curtis Samuel.  Kincaid showcased he has the chops last season, but his % of team targets was a measly 16.7%, which paled in comparison to anyone in the top-five TEs who were all over 20%.

In order to get break into the elite TE group which has gotten incredibly reinforced over the last year, Kincaid is going to need a volume jump.  That looks like a lock as he could easily emerge as Josh Allen’s favorite weapon.  He’s also going to need to be a core part of the red zone offense.  Last season he only had nine red zone targets where fellow TE Dawson Knox had eight, even though Knox only had 22 receptions to Kincaid’s 73.  Knox had nine TDs in 2021 and doesn’t profile as nearly the athlete that Kincaid has, so we know Allen has no problem feeding his TE when it counts.  The TE1 is going to need to have at least 1000 yards and 10 TDs.  In order to do that, Kincaid is going to have to be downfield more and not just as a safety valve.  The first order of business is to expand his route tree as Kincaid had only 7.3 air yards compared to 11.5 for Knox.

As great as Kincaid can and probably will be, the best thing he has going for him is his partner in crime.  Half the reason Kelce was so great for so long is that Pat Mahomes would always find him whether he was open or not.  Allen might not be Mahomes, but he’s pretty close and while Kincaid certainly isn’t Kelce, don’t be shocked if the comparisons start to pile up sooner rather than later.  In all honesty, Kincaid is probably a season away from making the big leap, but it’s impossible to ignore the opportunity he has combined with his talent coming into this season.  He’s a longshot to finish as the TE1, but never bet against Josh Allen when it comes to scoring TDs in the regular season.  There’s a goldmine sitting there and if Cook isn’t able to rumble in as many as I predicted earlier, then Kincaid could be a fantasy volcano dying to erupt.

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